730
FXUS61 KLWX 140018
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
818 PM EDT MON OCT 13 2025
SYNOPSIS
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH AWAY FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH A DRY COLD FRONT SET TO CROSS MIDWEEK. COOL CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES RETURN WITH A COLD
FRONT SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
OVERALL NOT TOO MUCH OF A CHANGE IN THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE
OUTSIDE OF SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES OVERNIGHT. COASTAL LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE CENTRAL
DELMARVA PENINSULA LOOKS TO CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER OVER
THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS. AREAS OF LIGHT DRIZZLE AND SHOWERS CONTINUE
TO PINWHEEL AROUND THE COASTAL LOW, ESPECIALLY IN LOCATIONS EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE. FURTHER WEST TOWARD I-81 AND THE ALLEGHENIES,
DRIER AIR HAS BEGUN WORKING IN DUE LARGELY IN PART TO UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING EAST FROM THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN U.S.
THIS WILL LEAD TO GRADUAL IMPROVEMENTS IN THE FORECAST COME
TUESDAY FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION.
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW TWO DISTINCT UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WHICH LOOK TO PHASE OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN
LOW IS JUST OFF THE DELMARVA COAST WHICH WILL PHASE WITH THE PARENT
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DOWN TOWARD THE COASTAL CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT.
THIS WILL FORCE THE SYSTEM FURTHER OUT INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE, 500 MB RIDGING OVER THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN U.S WILL EXPAND EASTWARD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHILE STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING DIGS INTO THE
WESTERN US. IN BETWEEN THE DEPARTING COASTAL LOW AND INCOMING HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM LIES A DRY COLD FRONT WHICH WILL SWING THROUGH THE
AREA MIDWEEK.
AS FOR THIS EVENING, EXPECT A CONTINUATION OF ON AND OFF
SHOWERS/DRIZZLE FOR AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THIS IS ESPECIALLY
TRUE FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF I-95 DUE IN PART TO THE
PROXIMITY OF THE COASTAL LOW. ELSEWHERE, LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL PREVAIL WITH PERHAPS A FEW BREAKS WEST OF ALLEGHENIES AND DOWN
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SHENANDOAH VALLEY. THESE LOCATIONS WILL SEE A
BIT MORE DRY AIR IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS(ABOVE 700 MB) AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING NOSES IN. RAINFALL AMOUNTS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING WON'T AMOUNT TO A WHOLE LOT WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING LESS
THAN A TENTH TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH. SOME VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS
MAY BE NOTED IN AREAS THAT SEE STEADIER POCKETS OF DRIZZLE. PATCHY
FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN WESTERN VALLEY LOCATIONS THAT DO SEE BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS (I.E WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT AND DOWN ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN SHENANDOAH VALLEY). OUTSIDE OF THE RAIN CHANCES AND CLOUD
COVER, EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE. WINDS WILL GUSTS
BETWEEN 15 TO 25 MPH OUT OF THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST MAINLY FOR AREAS
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE/US-15. HIGHEST GUSTS WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS
THE I-95 METROS AND WESTERN/EASTERN SHORES OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S (40S
MOUNTAINS AND WEST OF I-81).
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST TUESDAY AS COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS FURTHER OUT TO SEA
AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN. THE RIDGES WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
AND THE SOUTHERN SHENANDOAH VALLEY LOOK TO MIX OUT OF THE CLOUD
COVER FIRST BEFORE GRADUAL CLEARING TAKES HOLD TOWARD THE I-95
METROS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW LEFTOVER
SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER SOUTHERN MD AND
THE NORTHERN NECK OF VA TUESDAY MORNING, BUT OVERALL MOST
LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY. GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
WILL CONTINUE DUE IN PART TO THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
AND INCOMING HIGH. EXPECT SUSTAINED SPEEDS BETWEEN 10 TO 15 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH AT TIMES. HIGHEST WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN
BE CONFINED TO THE RIDGES AND LOCATIONS NEAR THE WATER. HIGHS
TUESDAY WILL PUSH BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S. RIDGE
LOCATIONS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE COULD BE A TAD BIT WARMER IN
THE MID 70S GIVEN THAT THEY WILL CLEAR EARLIER IN THE DAY.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
A DRY COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA LATE TUESDAY FROM THE
NORTHWEST BEFORE PUSHING THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC ON WEDNESDAY. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DUE TO LACK OF MOISTURE ALOFT AS
A COASTAL LOW DEPARTS OFFSHORE. A PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST, DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE, AND THE
PASSING DRY FRONT WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUATION OF BREEZY
CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10
TO 15 MPH ARE EXPECTED OUT OF THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS
UP TO 25 MPH.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE 60S TO MID 70S ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE ALLEGHENIES STAYING IN
THE 50S. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
40S FOR THOSE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND 50S FOR THOSE EAST AND
ALONG THE METROS. IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT, OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30S AND 40S.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A STRONG UPPER TROUGH REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. IN THE WAKE OF A POTENT DRY COLD FRONT THE
PREVIOUS NIGHT, THURSDAY WILL SEE A SUBSTANTIAL COOLDOWN INTO THE
60S FOR MOST AREAS. THURSDAY NIGHT MAY POSE THE THREAT FOR A
WIDESPREAD FROST EVENT, AS LOWS DIP INTO THE 30S WEST OF THE I-
95 CORRIDOR. THIS COOLDOWN CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY AS WELL, WITH
SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION. THOUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
IS EXPECTED TO BE WARMER AS WINDS SHIFT AND AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
BEGINS TO BUILD EASTWARD.
DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH FINALLY STARTS TO SHIFT TOWARDS THE EAST, MID-LEVEL HEIGHT
RISES WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. BOTH DAYS WILL SEE TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 70S FOR MOST.
A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS RETURNS LATER IN THE DAY SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
MVFR TO LOCALIZED POCKETS OF IFR ARE EXPECTED AT MOST OF THE
TERMINALS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AS COASTAL LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES
TO PUSH OFFSHORE. POCKETS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE CONTINUE TO
PINWHEEL AROUND THE LOW FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS IS MAINLY AFFECTING THE CORRIDOR TERMINALS COMPARED TO
KMRB AND KCHO WHERE DRIER CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO PREVAIL. LIGHT
SHOWERS/DRIZZLE AND LOW (BKN-OVC) CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE CORRIDOR TERMINALS OVERNIGHT WITH SLIGHT IMPROVEMENTS TOWARD
KCHO, KSHD, AND KRMB HEADING INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THESE
LOCATIONS WILL SEE THE INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR WORKING INTO THE MID
AND UPPER LEVELS FIRST AS COASTAL LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS THE
REGION LEADING TO VFR CONDITIONS. IT WILL TAKE UNTIL LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO
THE REMAINING TERMINALS FROM KIAD/KJYO POINTS EAST INTO THE I-95
CORRIDOR AS LOW PRESSURE WORKS FURTHER EAST INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN THE NORTH WEST. OUTSIDE OF
THE RAIN AND LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT EXPECT GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS TO CONTINUE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CORRIDOR TERMINALS.
SUSTAINED NORTH WINDS WILL HOVER BETWEEN 5 TO 15 KTS THROUGH
THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 20 TO 25 KTS. GUSTS WILL
DIMINISH A BIT OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE LACK OF MIXING. HIGHEST
GUSTS WILL LIKELY OCCUR AT KDCA, KBWI, AND KMTN DUE TO THE
PROXIMITY OF THE DEPARTING LOW.
IMPROVING WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR AVIATORS LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY DESPITE A DRY COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH
THE REGION. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ALTHOUGH NORTH TO
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY BETWEEN 20 TO 25 KTS. THIS
IS DUE IN PART TO THE DEPARTING LOW, APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM, AND FRONT PASSING THROUGH.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVERHEAD. WINDS ON THURSDAY WILL CONTINUE TO GUST
AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS, MAINLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. WINDS WILL
TAPER OFF ON FRIDAY, BUT REMAIN OUT OF THE NNW THROUGH THE EVENING,
BEFORE TURNING LIGHT AND SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT.
MARINE
WENT WITH A MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT FOR THE MIDDLE AND LOWER
WATERS OF THE BAY AS OCCASIONAL GALE FORCE GUSTS CONTINUE (I.E
COVE POINT, SAUNDERS POINT, AND GOOSES REEF). OUTSIDE OF THIS
AREA HIGH END SCA LEVEL GUSTS BETWEEN 20 TO 30 KTS CONTINUE AS
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SITS JUST OFFSHORE. HIGH END SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT ACROSS ALL WATERS THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS DIMINISH OVER THE UPPER PORTIONS OF THE
TIDAL POTOMAC WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES PERSISTING OVER THE
LOWER POTOMAC AND THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE
EXTENDED THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
OUTSIDE OF GUSTY WINDS, CONDITIONS DRY OUT OVERNIGHT WITH NO
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED OVER THE WATERS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
EXPECT SOME RESIDUAL WIND GUSTS AROUND SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THURSDAY
AS THE EXPANSIVE WIND FIELD OF THE OFFSHORE COASTAL SYSTEM CONTINUES
TO IMPACT THE REGION. SCAS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT AND
SHOULD BE BELOW SCA CRITERIA ON FRIDAY.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
TIDAL ANOMALIES ARE CONTINUING TO FALL AS GUSTY NORTH WINDS
CONTINUE. NO MINOR FLOODING IS EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH A FEW
SENSITIVE LOCATIONS ARE FORECAST TO RISE INTO ACTION STAGE
DURING HIGH TIDE. DAHLGREN, ANNAPOLIS, SOLOMONS ISLAND, STRAITS
POINT, AND DC ARE ALL FORECAST TO NEAR OR REACH ACTION STAGE
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ008.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ530>534-
537>543.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ535-536.
SYNOPSIS...EST
NEAR TERM...EST
SHORT TERM...AVS
LONG TERM...CJL
AVIATION...AVS/CJL/EST
MARINE...AVS/CJL/EST
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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