660
FXUS61 KLWX 141331
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
931 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2025
SYNOPSIS
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES RETURN WITH A COLD
FRONT SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
DRIZZLE SLOWLY TAPERING OFF, WITH SOME SUN POKING THROUGH EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE. EXPECT A GRADUAL CLEARING TREND THROUGH THE
DAY, BUT IT WILL BE SLOW. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
THE COASTAL LOW SLOWLY PULLS AWAY FROM THE AREA TODAY, WITH
CONDITIONS IMPROVING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WE
SHOULD SEE PRECIP ENDING LATE THIS MORNING EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE,
THOUGH SOME COULD LINGER EAST OF I-95 TILL EARLY AFTERNOON. CLOUDS
ARE GOING TO SLOWLY LIFT AND START TO BREAK UP, FIRST WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE THIS MORNING, THEN EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST
WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED, GUSTING AROUND 20-25 MPH.
HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON ARE GOING TO BE IN THE LOW 70S WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE WHERE THERE IS GOING TO BE MORE SUNSHINE. TO THE EAST, IT'LL
BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70F. A DRY COLD FRONT STARTS MOVING
INTO THE REGION TONIGHT, BRINGING DRIER AND COOLER AIR TO OUR AREA.
THIS DROPS LOWS TO THE MID/UPPER 40S WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND LOW
50S TO THE EAST.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
THE COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMEST TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT,
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S SOUTH OF I-66. TO THE NORTH, COOLER AIR
PREVAILS KEEPING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70F. BREEZY
CONDITIONS AGAIN DUE TO DOWNSLOPING NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING AROUND
20 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON.
TURNING COLDER WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT DROP TO
THE 30S TO MID 40S ACROSS THE AREA. A FEW SPOTS IN THE ALLEGHENIES
COULD GET CLOSE TO FREEZING. WIDESPREAD FROST IS NOT LIKELY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT DUE TO A PERSISTENT, THOUGH LIGHT, NORTHWEST WIND.
SUNNY AND COOL THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. THE
COLDEST TEMPS OF THE WEEK ARE LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH
SETTLES OVER THE EASTERN OH VALLEY TO PA. LOWS LIKELY DROP TO THE
30S EVERYWHERE WEST OF I-95, AND THE LOW 40S TO THE EAST. FROST AND
FREEZING TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ALONG/WEST OF US-15.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE NEARLY OVERHEAD FRIDAY AS AN UPPER
RIDGE AXIS APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. THESE FEATURES WILL
REMAIN IN CONTROL SATURDAY WHILE SLIDING TO THE EAST. DRY WEATHER
LIKELY CONTINUES, THOUGH WARM ADVECTION PROCESSES COULD BRING SOME
EXTRA CLOUDS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON
FRIDAY WILL RISE ABOVE NORMAL ON SATURDAY.
MEANWHILE, TROUGHING WILL DIG TOWARD THE EASTERN US AS A CLOSED LOW
MOVES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARD ONTARIO AHEAD OF AMPLIFYING
RIDGING IN THE ROCKIES. THE TROUGH AXIS MAY TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT
AS IT APPROACHES SUNDAY ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL INCREASE DURING THIS TIME, POSSIBLY LINGERING
INTO EARLY MONDAY DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT. WHILE WEAK
INSTABILITY MAY LIMIT THUNDER CHANCES, WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY SHOWERS AND/OR GRADIENT WINDS DUE TO THE
POTENTIAL DYNAMIC NATURE OF THE SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK
BELOW NORMAL MONDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.
AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
A COASTAL LOW JUST EAST OF THE DELMARVA WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
MVFR TO IFR CIGS, ALONG WITH A STEADY HEAVY MIST THROUGH THIS
MORNING. CONDITIONS BEGIN TO SLOWLY THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS THROUGH THIS EVENING. VFR
CONDITIONS RETURN TO ALL TERMINALS BY LATE AFTERNOON.
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT, WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN THROUGH MID WEEK. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL DURING THIS
TIME, WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING AROUND 20 KNOTS EACH
AFTERNOON.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH BY EARLY SATURDAY.
MARINE
A COASTAL LOW JUST EAST OF THE DELMARVA THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO
PRODUCE HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL OF THE LOCAL WATERS.
EVEN THOUGH THE LOW PULLS AWAY FROM THE AREA LATER TODAY, NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. A SURGE IN WINDS
IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
ESPECIALLY OVER THE BAY WHERE GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS ARE FORECAST.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA ON THURSDAY, BUT WINDS REMAIN
GUSTING AROUND 20-25 KNOTS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE. NORTHWEST WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH BY EARLY SATURDAY.
SOUTHERLY CHANNELING MAY START ENHANCING WINDS ALONG THE BAY
SATURDAY NIGHT.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
COASTAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AN ISSUE OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AS GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE. ALTHOUGH A FEW SENSITIVE
LOCATIONS ARE FORECAST TO RISE INTO ACTION STAGE DURING HIGH TIDE,
SPECIFICALLY AT DAHLGREN, ANNAPOLIS, SOLOMONS ISLAND, AND STRAITS
POINT.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ008.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ530>534-
537>543.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ535-
536.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
ANZ535-536.
SYNOPSIS...KRR
NEAR TERM...CPB/KRR
SHORT TERM...KRR
LONG TERM...ADS
AVIATION...ADS/KRR
MARINE...ADS/KRR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...LWX
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