731
FXUS61 KLWX 141801
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
201 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2025
SYNOPSIS
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES RETURN WITH A COLD
FRONT SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO ERODE TODAY WITH CONTINUE NORTHERLY
FLOW ACROSS THE AREA AS A COASTAL LOW SLOWLY PULLS AWAY FROM THE
COAST. CONTINUED BANKING OF CLOUDS IS EXPECTED ON WESTERN SLOPES
OF BLUE RIDGE, WITH CLEARING EXPECTED TO VERY SLOWLY EXPAND
NORTHWARD. OTHERWISE, NORTHWEST WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED, GUSTING
AROUND 20-25 MPH.
TEMPS DEPEND ON CLOUDCOVER. WHERE IT IS SUNNY, TEMPS ARE NEARING
70. WHERE IT IS CLOUDY, CLOSER TO 60. MUCH DRIER AIR MOVES IN
TONIGHT AS A DRY COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THIS WILL BRING COOLER
AIR INTO THE AREA AS WELL. LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER 40S
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND LOW 50S TO THE EAST.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
THE AFOREMENTIONED MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY
THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE WARMEST TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT, IN THE LOW TO MID 70S
SOUTH OF I-66. TO THE NORTH, COOLER AIR PREVAILS KEEPING HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70F. BREEZY CONDITIONS AGAIN DUE TO
DOWNSLOPING NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING AROUND 20 MPH DURING THE
AFTERNOON. DID LOWER TDS A TAD BEHIND THE FRONT GIVEN FORECAST
MIXING.
TURNING COLDER WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT DROP TO
THE 30S TO MID 40S ACROSS THE AREA. A FEW SPOTS IN THE ALLEGHENIES
COULD GET CLOSE TO FREEZING, MAINLY THE VALLEYS WHERE THE WINDS
LIKELY DECOUPLE. WIDESPREAD FROST IS NOT LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
DUE TO A PERSISTENT, THOUGH LIGHT, NORTHWEST WIND.
SUNNY AND COOL THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. MAIN
CONCERN THURSDAY IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FIRE WX CONCERNS
DEPENDING ON HOW DRY THE FORECAST TRENDS. WINDS ARE BORDERLINE
FOR SPS (~20 MPH). WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
THE COLDEST TEMPS OF THE WEEK ARE LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE
HIGH SETTLES OVER THE EASTERN OH VALLEY TO PA. LOWS LIKELY DROP
TO THE 30S EVERYWHERE WEST OF I-95, AND THE LOW 40S TO THE EAST.
MUCH BETTER SETUP FOR FROST/FREEZE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE HIGH
OVERHEAD. FROST AND FREEZING TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
ALONG/WEST OF US-15.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVERHEAD FRIDAY BEFORE SLOWLY WORKING
EASTWARD ON SATURDAY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH SOME
WARM ADVECTION INCREASING SOME CLOUDS ALONG THE WAY FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL RISE ABOVE
NORMAL ON SATURDAY.
A TROUGH WILL DIG TOWARD THE EASTERN US AS A CLOSED LOW MOVES ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL RACE EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND EASTERN OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY AND BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM. THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS OR A
THUNDERSTORM COULD LINGER INTO MONDAY DEPENDING ON THE SPEED OF THE
COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK BELOW NORMAL MONDAY BEHIND
THE FRONT.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
CIGS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
VFR CONDITIONS RETURN TO ALL TERMINALS BY EVENING.
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT, WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN THROUGH MID WEEK. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL DURING THIS
TIME, WITH A WIND SHIFT TO NORTHWEST WINDS STARTING TONIGHT GUSTING
AROUND 20 KNOTS EACH AFTERNOON.
VFR CONDITIONS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. SOME INCREASING
CLOUDS AHEAD OF A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS NORTHWEST 5 TO 10 KNOTS FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT, BECOMING SOUTH 5 TO 15 KNOTS SATURDAY.
MARINE
AS A COASTAL LOW PULLS AWAY FROM THE AREA LATER TODAY, NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS WITH CONTINUED SCA GUSTS.
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. A SURGE IN WINDS
IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
ESPECIALLY OVER THE BAY WHERE GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS ARE
FORECAST. HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY FOR ALL
WATERS.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA ON THURSDAY, BUT
WINDS REMAIN GUSTING AROUND 20-25 KNOTS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
NO MARINE HAZARDS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS NORTHWEST 5
TO 15 KNOTS FRIDAY, THEN SOUTHERLY 10 TO 15 KNOTS SATURDAY.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
COASTAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AN ISSUE OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AS GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE. ALTHOUGH A FEW SENSITIVE
LOCATIONS ARE FORECAST TO RISE INTO ACTION STAGE DURING HIGH TIDE,
SPECIFICALLY AT DAHLGREN, ANNAPOLIS, SOLOMONS ISLAND, AND STRAITS
POINT.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR MDZ008.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ530>534-
537>543.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ535-
536.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY
FOR ANZ535-536.
SYNOPSIS...CPB/KRR
NEAR TERM...CPB
SHORT TERM...CPB/KRR
LONG TERM...KLW
AVIATION...KLW/CPB/KRR
MARINE...KLW/CPB/KRR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...LWX
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