167
FXUS61 KLWX 151412
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1012 AM EDT WED OCT 15 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEFORE SHIFTING
OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES RETURN WITH A COLD FRONT SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST MADE FOR TODAY ASIDE FROM TWEAKING
TEMPS OVER NEXT COUPLE HOURS AND SKY COVER BASED ON SATELLITE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. BREEZY
AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT AS HIGHS REACH THE
LOW TO MID 70S THIS AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS GUST AROUND 20-25
MPH, PICKING UP IN THE LATE MORNING AND DIMINISHING BY EARLY
EVENING.
COOLER CONDITIONS TONIGHT AS LOWS DROP TO THE 40S, WITH LOWER TO MID
30S IN THE ALLEGHENIES. AREAS OF FROST ARE POSSIBLE IN THE ELEVATED
SHELTERED VALLEYS, BUT THERE MIGHT STILL BE ENOUGH WIND THROUGH THE
NIGHT TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD FROST FROM DEVELOPING. OPTING TO NOT
ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY AT THIS TIME, WILL LET THE NEXT SHIFT ASSESS
TRENDS IN WINDS/TEMPS FOR TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH FOR ALL AREAS WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. COLDEST AREAS
LIKELY IN THE VALLEYS. VERY FAVORABLE SETUP WITH HIGH OVERHEAD,
LOW TDS, AND LIGHT WINDS. FROST ADVISORIES LIKELY NEEDED TO THE
EAST ON LATER SHIFTS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
A LARGE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE
END OF THIS WEEK. DRY AND MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED, WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S EACH DAY. ELEVATED WINDS REMAIN ON THURSDAY AS
WINDS GUST AROUND 20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON, THEN LIGHT WINDS FOR
FRIDAY AS THE HIGH SETTLES OVERHEAD.
THE COLDEST TEMPS OF THE WEEK ARE LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT WHEN LOWS
DROP TO THE 30S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA, EXCEPT IN THE LOW 40S EAST
OF I-95. WIDESPREAD FROST LOOKS LIKELY ALONG AND WEST OF US-15, AND
IN NORTHERN MD.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN THIS WEEKEND ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING GIVEN THE INFLUENCE OF BROAD HIGH PRESSURE
DEPARTING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. A POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
STRONG COLD FRONT LOOK TO CROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE SET TO RETURN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SATURDAY APPEARS TO BE THE BEST OF THE TWO WEEKEND DAYS AS HIGH
PRESSURE DRIFTS OFF THE VA/NC COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE REGION BOOSTING TEMPERATURES
INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S. DOWNSLOPE AREAS EAST OF THE ALLEGHENIES
COULD SEE HIGHS AROUND 80 DEGREES WHILE PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST AND
CENTRAL MD REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. THIS IS DUE LARGELY IN
PART TO THE PLACEMENT OF THE HIGH AS IT DEPARTS TOWARD THE COAST.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OFFSHORE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. MEANWHILE, A CUTOFF AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL WORK FROM THE
UPPER MIDWEST TOWARD THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WITH A DIGGING TROUGH
WORKING SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE OHIO/TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEYS. A
POTENT COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THE TROUGH AS THE CUTOFF LOW EJECTS
NORTH AND EAST INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS FRONT LOOKS
TO CROSS THE AREA SOMETIME LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY BRINGING
THE NEXT CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL. SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL
REMAINS IN REGARDS TO THE PLACEMENT/TILT OF THE TROUGH AND TIMING OF
THE FRONT AS IT SWINGS ON THROUGH. 18Z/00Z GUIDANCE HAVE SHOWN SOME
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A FRONT WORKING INTO THE ALLEGHENIES LATE
SUNDAY MORNING INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE CLEARING THE I-95 METROS
SUNDAY NIGHT. 18Z/00Z DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS DEPICT A
NEUTRAL TO SLIGHTLY NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH AS THE LOW EJECTS NORTH
AND EAST THROUGH EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO EASTERN CANADA.
WITH THAT SAID, THE RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS MAY NOT BE OUT OF THE
QUESTION INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER. OF COURSE THIS
WILL REVOLVE AROUND THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND HOW MUCH INSTABILITY
CAN BE MAXIMIZED. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE RIGHT NOW HOLD CAPE VALUES
LESS THAN 500 J/KG WITH 0-6 KM BULK EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES BETWEEN
50 TO 70 KTS. BASICALLY, A HIGH SHEAR TO LOW/NO CAPE ENVIRONMENT. IF
THE INGREDIENTS CAN BE MAXIMIZED WE COULD BE LOOKING A A FEW
STRONGER STORMS OR AT LEAST A BROKEN LINE OF GUSTY SHOWERS PUSHING
THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WILL BE SOMETHING THAT WE CLOSELY MONITOR
IN THE COMING DAYS AHEAD.
SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD LINGER INTO MONDAY IN NORTHWEST FLOW AS THE
FRONT WORKS EAST AT THE RESULTANT CLOSED LOW DEPARTS FOR EASTERN
CANADA. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH BREEZY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS THE FRONT DEPARTS EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS FROM THE SOUTHEAST U.S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES SET TO WARM BACK TO NORMAL OR JUST
ABOVE NORMAL.
AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEK.
GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED TODAY AND THURSDAY, FROM
LATE MORNING TO LATE AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS AROUND 20-25 KNOTS. LIGHT
WINDS FRIDAY AS THE HIGH SETTLES OVERHEAD.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE TERMINALS THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS RETURN WITH A POTENT COLD FRONT SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
LOOK TO ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT AS IT PUSHES THROUGH. VFR CONDITIONS
RETURN MONDAY AND TUESDAY NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY, THEN CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
FRIDAY. A SURGE OF NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT WILL
BRING GUSTS UP TO 25-30 KNOTS OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE CHESAPEAKE
BAY. AFTER THAT, GUSTS WILL MAINLY BE BETWEEN 20-25 KNOTS ACROSS THE
WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS DIMINISH BELOW SCA LEVELS BY
FRIDAY EVENING.
NO MARINE HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. SUB-SCA
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 10 TO 15 KTS. SCA SOUTHERLY
CHANNELING RETURNS AHEAD OF THE FRONT SUNDAY WITH GUSTY WEST TO
NORTHWEST SCA LEVEL FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
NEXT WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON DUE
TO THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES.
NORTHWEST WINDS COULD GUST AROUND 20 TO 25 MPH ALONG AND NORTH OF
ROUTE 50, WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 MPH TO THE SOUTH. MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE 25 TO 35 PERCENT, WITH THE DRIEST
IN THE CENTRAL SHENANDOAH VALLEY.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MDZ008.
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
FOR MDZ003-501-502-509-510.
VA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
FOR VAZ025>031-503-504.
WV...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
FOR WVZ050>053-055-501>506.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ530>534-
537>543.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ535-
536.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
ANZ535-536.
SYNOPSIS...KRR
NEAR TERM...CPB/KRR
SHORT TERM...CPB/KRR
LONG TERM...EST
AVIATION...KRR/EST
MARINE...KRR/EST
FIRE WEATHER...KRR
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