588
FXUS61 KLWX 160009
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
809 PM EDT WED OCT 15 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL SAG THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT WITH CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH THURSDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH A
WIDESPREAD FREEZE WEST OF THE METRO AREA FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE SHIFTING
OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND ALLOWING WARMER TEMPERATURES TO RETURN. A
POTENT COLD FRONT LOOKS TO CROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
BRINGING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCE TO THE REGION.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED OVERNIGHT WITH COOL CANADIAN AIR
FILTERING IN AS A DRY COLD FRONT SAGS THROUGH THE REGION. SKIES WILL
TREND MOSTLY CLEAR WITH JUST A FEW RESIDUAL HIGH CLOUDS PASSING
THROUGH ALONG THE IMMEDIATE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. LOWS WILL FALL INTO
THE LOW TO MID 40S AREAWIDE WITH MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THE
ALLEGHENY MOUNTAINS. SOME PATCHY FROST REMAINS POSSIBLE OVER THE
HIGH SHELTERED MOUNTAIN VALLEYS (I.E BITTINGER, MD, CRANESVILLE, MD,
MILL GAP, VA, AND BAYARD, WV) GIVEN SOME ADDED PROTECTION FROM THE
WIND. OVERALL NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS AT 5 TO 15 MPH WILL STAVE OFF
ANY WIDESPREAD FROST CONCERNS. AREAS THAT DO SEE FROST LIKELY
ALREADY SAW IT THIS FALL. OPTED TO NOT ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY AT
THIS TIME GIVEN CURRENT WIND FORECAST.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SETTLE OVER THE REGION
THURSDAY INTO THE BACK HALF OF THE WORKWEEK. MOSTLY SUNNY AND COOLER
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.
WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS IS IS LARGELY DUE IN PART TO THE DEPARTING COLD
FRONT OFFSHORE AND THE INCOMING CANADIAN HIGH. WINDS WILL LIGHTEN
THURSDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH SETTLES OVERHEAD.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE
WORKWEEK WITH WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE 30S. AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF I-
95 WILL LIKELY SEE LOWS IN THE 40S GIVEN THE WARMER INFLUENCE OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY AND IT'S SURROUNDING INLETS NEARBY. TYPICAL SHELTERED
HIGH MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WILL LIKELY MAKE A RUN INTO THE 20S, AND WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED IF PARTS OF THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY FALL INTO THE
UPPER 20S WITH THE SURFACE HIGH (DRY DEWPOINTS) OVERHEAD. A
WIDESPREAD FROST AND/OR FREEZING TEMPERATURES LOOKS LIKELY ALONG AND
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. HAVE ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH FOR LOCATIONS
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. FROST CONCERNS SPREAD EASTWARD TOWARDS THE I-
95 CORRIDOR, WHERE FROST ADVISORIES MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED IN
SUBSEQUENT FORECAST CYCLES.
DRY CONDITIONS WITH LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL
NORMS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS AND
LOCATIONS NEAR THE WATERS WILL BE A TOUCH COOLER IN THE LOW 60S.
SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH NORTHERLY WINDS
LESS THAN 10 MPH. CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S. SOME PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE
ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AS HIGH PRESSURE
PUSHES TOWARD THE COAST.
WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES
OFFSHORE. SATURDAY APPEARS TO BE THE BEST OF THE TWO WEEKEND DAYS AS
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OFF THE VA/NC COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOUTH
TO SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE REGION BOOSTING TEMPERATURES
INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S. DOWNSLOPE AREAS EAST OF THE ALLEGHENIES
COULD SEE HIGHS AROUND 80 DEGREES WHILE PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST AND
CENTRAL MD REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. THIS IS DUE LARGELY IN
PART TO THE PLACEMENT OF THE HIGH AS IT DEPARTS TOWARD THE VA/NC
COAST.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OFFSHORE SUNDAY. MEANWHILE, A CUTOFF
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL WORK FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TOWARD THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES WITH A DIGGING TROUGH WORKING SOUTH AND EAST
ACROSS THE OHIO/TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEYS. A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL
ACCOMPANY THE TROUGH AS THE CUTOFF LOW EJECTS NORTH AND EAST INTO
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS FRONT LOOKS TO CROSS THE AREA
SOMETIME LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE OF
MEASURABLE RAINFALL. SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS IN REGARDS TO
THE PLACEMENT/TILT OF THE TROUGH AND TIMING OF THE FRONT AS IT
SWINGS ON THROUGH. 18Z/00Z GUIDANCE HAVE SHOWN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
A FRONT WORKING INTO THE ALLEGHENIES LATE SUNDAY MORNING INTO SUNDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE CLEARING THE I-95 METROS SUNDAY NIGHT.
WITH THAT SAID, THE RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS MAY NOT BE OUT OF THE
QUESTION INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER. OF COURSE THIS
WILL REVOLVE AROUND THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND HOW MUCH INSTABILITY
CAN BE MAXIMIZED. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE RIGHT NOW HOLD CAPE VALUES
LESS THAN 500 J/KG WITH 0-6 KM BULK EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES BETWEEN
50 TO 70 KTS. BASICALLY, A HIGH SHEAR TO LOW/NO CAPE ENVIRONMENT. IF
THE INGREDIENTS CAN BE MAXIMIZED WE COULD BE LOOKING A A FEW
STRONGER STORMS OR AT LEAST A BROKEN LINE OF GUSTY SHOWERS PUSHING
THROUGH THE REGION. CIPS/CSU GUIDANCE HIGHLIGHTS THIS THREAT, AND
SPC HAS A DAY 5 HONORABLE MENTION IN THEIR DAY 4-8 EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
THIS WILL BE SOMETHING THAT WE CLOSELY MONITOR IN THE COMING DAYS
AHEAD.
SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD LINGER INTO MONDAY IN NORTHWEST FLOW AS THE
FRONT WORKS EAST AT THE RESULTANT CLOSED LOW DEPARTS FOR EASTERN
CANADA. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH BREEZY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS THE FRONT DEPARTS EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS FROM THE SOUTHEAST U.S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES SET TO WARM BACK TO NORMAL
OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
THOUGH ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR ALL TERMINALS
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER
THE REGION. WIND WILL BE THE ONLY CONCERN FOR AVIATORS OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL GUSTS 20 TO 25 KTS OUT OF THE NORTH
AND NORTHWEST THIS EVENING AND AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL LIGHTEN FRIDAY AT LESS THAN 10 KTS AS THE HIGH SETTLES
OVERHEAD. HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE SATURDAY WITH WINDS
TURNING BACK TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AT LESS THAN 15 KTS.
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS RETURN WITH A POTENT COLD FRONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO
ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT AS IT PUSHES THROUGH. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN
MONDAY AND TUESDAY NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
A SURGE OF NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT WILL BRING
GUSTS UP TO 25-30 KNOTS OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE CHESAPEAKE
BAY. AFTER THAT, GUSTS WILL MAINLY BE BETWEEN 20-25 KNOTS ACROSS
THE WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. FRIDAY DURING THE DAY THERE
REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE GRADIENT AND
INHERENT WINDS. SOUTHERN WATERS LIKELY NEED EXTENDED AT LEAST
PARTIALLY INTO THE DAY FRIDAY, THOUGH UNCERTAINTY REMAIN WITH
NORTHWARD EXTENT OF SCA GUSTS. WILL LET FUTURE SHIFTS EVALUATE.
WINDS DIMINISH BELOW SCA LEVELS BY FRIDAY EVENING.
NO MARINE HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. SUB-
SCA SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 10 TO 15 KTS. SCA SOUTHERLY
CHANNELING RETURNS AHEAD OF THE FRONT SUNDAY WITH GUSTY WEST TO
NORTHWEST SCA LEVEL FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
NEXT WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON DUE
TO THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RH VALUES. NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS COULD GUST AROUND 20 TO 25 MPH ALONG AND NORTH OF I-
66/US-50, WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 MPH TO THE SOUTH. MINIMUM RH VALUES
ARE FORECAST TO BE 25-35%, WITH THE DRIEST (VALUES LESS THAN 25
PERCENT) IN THE CENTRAL SHENANDOAH VALLEY. BASED ON AVAILABLE DATA,
FUELS APPEAR A TAD ABOVE THRESHOLDS IN TERMS OF MOISTURE AND
STRONGEST WINDS MAY BE OFFSET FROM THE LOWEST HUMIDITY VALUES.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MDZ008.
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
FOR MDZ003-501-502-509-510.
VA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
FOR VAZ025>031-503-504.
WV...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
FOR WVZ050>053-055-501>506.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ530>534-
537>543.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
ANZ535-536.
SYNOPSIS...EST
NEAR TERM...EST
SHORT TERM...CPB/EST
LONG TERM...CPB/EST
AVIATION...CPB/EST
MARINE...CPB/EST
FIRE WEATHER...CPB/EST
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page