370
FXUS61 KLWX 160700
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
300 AM EDT THU OCT 16 2025
SYNOPSIS
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH THROUGH FRIDAY
BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND. A POTENT COLD FRONT LOOKS
TO CROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A SECOND COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH INTO THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT.
DRY AND MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S THIS
AFTERNOON AS WINDS GUST AROUND 20-25 MPH. COLD TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AS LOWS FALL TO THE 30S TO LOW 40S.
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW MUCH FROST CAN DEVELOP
TONIGHT AS WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED AND PREVENT DECOUPLING. DEEP
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH A JET STREAK RIGHT OVER THE AREA, AND
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE COAST IS LIKELY TO KEEP WINDS
MIXED AND AROUND 5-10 MPH THROUGH THE NIGHT. SO FOR THOSE EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE EVEN THOUGH TEMPS FALL TO THE 30S OUTSIDE THE MAIN
CITIES THE ELEVATED WINDS PREVENT FROST FROM DEVELOPING.
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE, THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF WIND SHELTERED
VALLEYS THAT SEE LIGHT TO CALM WINDS. WIDESPREAD FROST IS MORE
LIKELY IN THESE AREAS, THUS A FROST ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED. FOR
THE ALLEGHENIES, TEMPS FALL TO 30-32F, SO A FREEZE WARNING HAS BEEN
ISSUED.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION FRIDAY MOVES OFFSHORE FOR THE START OF
THE WEEKEND. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY, WITH NORTHERLY
WINDS FRIDAY BECOMING SOUTHERLY ON SATURDAY. COOL FALL-LIKE WEATHER
PERSISTS INTO FRIDAY AS HIGHS REACH THE 60S ONCE AGAIN. BECOMING
WARMER FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND AS HIGHS REACH THE UPPER 60S TO
LOW 70S. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. A GUSTY SOUTHERLY WIND WILL USHER IN WARMER AND
SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD ACCOMPANY THE FRONT MIDDAY SUNDAY THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. A GUSTY
NORTHWESTERLY WIND AND COLDER AND DRIER AIR WILL RUSH INTO THE
REGION BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS
HIGH WILL QUICKLY MOVE TO THE EAST TO ALLOW A SECOND COLD FRONT TO
PUSH INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT AS WELL.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 60S.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION, THEN OFFSHORE TO START THE WEEKEND. NORTHWEST
WINDS GUST AROUND 20-25 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.
VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, WITH EXCEPTION TO
SHOWERS AND ANY PASSING THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY EVENING WHERE IFR OR MVFR COULD BRIEFLY OCCUR WITH GUSTY
WINDS TOO. WINDS SOUTH 10 TO 15 KNOTS GUSTS 20 TO 25 KNOTS SUNDAY,
BECOMING SOUTHWEST THEN NORTHWEST 10 TO 15 KNOTS SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS
NORTHWEST 10 TO 15 GUSTS 20 KNOTS MONDAY.
MARINE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE
WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING, THEN WINDS SLOWLY START TO DIMINISH
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS RETURN TO ALL
THE WATERS BY FRIDAY EVENING. WINDS TURN SOUTHERLY BY EARLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY CHANNELING SATURDAY NIGHT COULD PRODUCE NEAR-
SCA LEVELS OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE CHESAPEAKE.
ANY GUSTY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THAT VENTURE ACROSS THE
POTOMAC RIVER OR CHESAPEAKE BAY COULD RESULT IN SPECIAL MARINE
WARNINGS LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT.
OTHERWISE, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED AHEAD OF THE
CONVECTION SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING
WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. WINDS SOUTH 10 TO 15 KNOTS GUSTS 20
TO 25 KNOTS SUNDAY, BECOMING SOUTHWEST TO WEST 10 TO 15 KNOTS
SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS NORTHWEST 10 TO 20 KNOTS MONDAY INTO MONDAY
EVENING.
FIRE WEATHER
MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO
A COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES. NORTH
TO NORTHWEST WINDS GUST AROUND 20 TO 25 MPH ALONG AND NORTH OF I-
66/US-50, WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 MPH TO THE SOUTH. MINIMUM RH VALUES
ARE FORECAST TO BE 25 TO 35 PERCENT, WITH THE DRIEST (VALUES LESS
THAN 25 PERCENT) IN THE CENTRAL SHENANDOAH VALLEY.
HOWEVER, THE STRONGEST WINDS AND LOWEST RH VALUES DO NOT OVERLAP,
AND FINE FUELS ARE CURRENTLY JUST ABOVE THE MINIMUM THRESHOLD OF
CONCERN. AS A RESULT, THE OVERALL RISK DOES NOT APPEAR TO REACH THE
LEVEL NEEDED TO ISSUE A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT AT THIS TIME.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MDZ003>005-501-
502.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MDZ509-510.
VA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VAZ025>031-507-
508.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VAZ503-504.
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR WVZ050>053-055-
504.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR WVZ501>503-505-
506.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ530-531-538-
539-542.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ532>534-537-
540-541-543.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR ANZ535-536.
SYNOPSIS...KRR
NEAR TERM...KRR
SHORT TERM...KRR
LONG TERM...KLW
AVIATION...KRR/KLW
MARINE...KRR/KLW
FIRE WEATHER...KRR
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