785
FXUS61 KLWX 161920
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
320 PM EDT THU OCT 16 2025
SYNOPSIS
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH THROUGH FRIDAY
BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND. A POTENT COLD FRONT LOOKS
TO CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A SECOND COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
SUPPORTING CHILLY TEMPERATURES AT NIGHT AND COOL CONDITIONS
DURING THE DAY. VERY LITTLE IF ANY CLOUDS EXPECTED FRI WITH
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS FRI NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE QUITE CHILLY UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND
DIMINISHING WINDS. DEWPOINTS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE UPPER 20S AS
FAR EAST AS I-95 UNDER GUSTY NW WINDS. MOST AREAS WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS WILL SEE SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES,
WHILE AREAS TO THE EAST WILL SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S
WITH WINDS LIGHT ENOUGH TO ALLOW FROST FORMATION.
A LITTLE WARMER FRI AND NOT AS COLD FRI NIGHT UNDER INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDS.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE SATURDAY WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS
RETURNING ALLOWING FOR A WARMING TREND WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
REACHING INTO THE 70S. HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE MORNING SHOULD
DEPART DURING THE AFTERNOON GIVING WAY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
ANY PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH SUNDAY'S CDFNT IS EXPECTED TO HOLD
OFF UNTIL AFTER 12Z SUNDAY.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A POWERFUL UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE EJECTING EASTWARD OUT OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS ON SUNDAY MORNING AND VERY QUICKLY MAKING ITS WAY
TOWARDS THE MID-ATLANTIC. AS IT DOES SO, A POWERFUL COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL BE ONE OF THE STRONGER FRONTS WE HAVE SEEN IN QUITE
SOME TIME, AND WILL LIKELY BRING AT LEAST SOME HEAVY SHOWERS AS IT
MOVES THROUGH. TIMING IS STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN, BUT GENERALLY LOOKS
TO BE IN THE LATE EVENING OR DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE UPPER
TROUGH MAY BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED, THUS THERE WILL BE PLENTIFUL
AMOUNTS OF WIND SHEAR TO START SOME CONVERSATIONS ABOUT SEVERE
POTENTIAL. HOWEVER, ALL SIGNS ARE POINTING AT VERY LOW AMOUNTS OF
INSTABILITY TO GO ALONG WITH THIS WIND SHEAR. SO, CURRENT THINKING
IS THAT WE COULD SEE A PRETTY ORGANIZED SQUALL LINE OF HEAVIER
SHOWERS THAT BRINGS DOWN SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTY WINDS IN STRONGER
SEGMENTS. ALL IN ALL, NOT A SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE THREAT AT THIS TIME,
BUT IT IS NON-ZERO AND SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS TO MAKE SURE THINGS DON'T TREND A DIFFERENT DIRECTION.
IN THE WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT, TEMPERATURES DROP BACK
DOWN INTO THE 60S ON MONDAY (50S IN THE MOUNTAINS). ADDITIONALLY,
WINDS COULD BE QUITE GUSTY. AS OF NOW, GUSTS REACHING ADVISORY
THRESHOLD SEEM UNLIKELY, AT LEAST ON A FREQUENT BASIS, OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. HOWEVER, SEEMS PLAUSIBLE TO SEE GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH
OR SO.
A BRIEF WARMUP RETURNS ON TUESDAY AS A UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN
BRIEFLY BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS. WINDS TURN BACK OUT OF THE SOUTH
AND TEMPS WARM BACK TOWARDS THE LOW 70S.
ANOTHER POWERFUL COLD FRONT LOOKS TO SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION AROUND
WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. FOR NOW, THIS FRONT LOOKS DRY IN NATURE, BUT
WILL COME WITH A SUBSTANTIAL DROP IN TEMPERATURES AND ANOTHER BOUT
OF GUSTY WINDS IN ITS WAKE.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
WINDS WILL DIMINISH RAPIDLY WITH SUNSET TONIGHT BELOW 10 KT AND
REMAIN 10 KT OR LESS ON FRI. SOME LLWS IS POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT AS
LLJ STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF POWERFUL COLD FRONT.
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF A POWERFUL COLD FRONT,
WHICH WILL PUSH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT
WILL ALSO BRING THE CHANCE FOR SOME HEAVY SHOWERS, AND PERHAPS A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO, WHICH COULD BRING GUSTY WINDS ALONG WITH THEM.
ALSO, SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WOULD BE LIKELY DURING THIS TIME, AT LEAST
AT TIMES.
GUSTY WNW WINDS DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT ON MONDAY, BUT VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
MARINE
WINDS WILL DIMINISH RAPIDLY OVER THE WATERS ON FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY
WINDS STRENGTHEN AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SCA CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE.
SCAS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY DUE TO STRONG SOUTHERLIES AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING POWERFUL COLD FRONT. HEAVY SHOWERS, AND POTENTIALLY
THUNDERSTORMS, ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. THESE MAY BRING SOME DECENT WIND GUSTS AT TIMES, WHICH
MAY NECESSITATE SMWS FOR SOME LOCATIONS.
SCAS WILL BE NEEDED INTO MONDAY AS STRONG WINDS OUT OF THE WNW
CONTINUE IN THE WAKE OF THIS POWERFUL COLD FRONT.
FIRE WEATHER
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXIST AT THE PRESENT MOMENT
WITH MINRH < 30% AND WINDS GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH, BUT THESE
SHOULD BE SHORT- LIVED. LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED FRI
PRECLUDING ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS DESPITE SIMILAR RH VALUES.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MDZ008.
FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MDZ003>005.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MDZ501-502-509-
510.
VA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VAZ028>031-039-
040-051-501-502-505-507-508.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VAZ025>027-503-
504.
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR WVZ051>053.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR WVZ050-055-
501>506.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ530-531-538-
539-542.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ532>534-537-
540-541-543.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ535-
536.
SYNOPSIS...KRR
NEAR TERM...LFR
SHORT TERM...LFR
LONG TERM...CJL
AVIATION...LFR/CJL
MARINE...LFR/CJL
FIRE WEATHER...LFR
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