943
FXUS61 KLWX 170739
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
339 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2025
SYNOPSIS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE TODAY AND TOMORROW, AHEAD OF A
POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT
PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA MIDWEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
TEMPERATURES AS OF 3:30AM ARE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S ALONG
AND WEST OF THE ALLEGHENIES AND 30S TO LOW 40S ALONG AND WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL OVER THE
NEXT HOUR OR TWO BEFORE SLOWLY WARMING AFTER SUNRISE. FREEZE
WARNINGS AND FROST ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 9AM FOR
PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVERHEAD TODAY AS DRY CONDITIONS AND
MINIMAL CLOUD COVER CONTINUES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
NORTHWEST WINDS BLOW 5 TO 10 KNOTS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 60S FOR MOST WITH HIGHER ELEVATIONS
STAYING IN THE 50S. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT, WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
40S FOR MOST.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE.
WINDS SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY IN RETURN FLOW, BLOWING AROUND 5 KNOTS.
SOUTHERLY FLOW USHERS IN WARMER AIR WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
60S TO MID 70S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. INCREASED MOISTURE LEADS TO
INCREASED CLOUD COVER WITH PARTLY SUNNY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
ACROSS THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE 40S TO 50S.
ON SUNDAY, A STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA, BRINGING HEAVY RAIN. INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED AHEAD OF
THE FRONT, WITH THE THUNDER RISK REMAINING LOW. HEAVY RAIN
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS. THERE REMAINS A GOOD BIT OF UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
THE COLD FRONT/ UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST TO IMPACT THE
REGION DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE OFF TO THE EAST
BY MONDAY MORNING. BEHIND THE FRONT PASSAGE, A BRIEF RETURN TO BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY IS FAVORED AS WINDS SHIFT OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE SHORT LIVED AS A SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON
TEMPS TO RISE BACK UP INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH ALONG WITH IT'S ATTENDING SURFACE FRONT IS FORECAST BY
GUIDANCE TO BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS SOMETIME TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. SHOWER COVERAGE IS LIKELY TO BE MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE
AT THIS TIME AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MUCH WEAKER AND AN 850
WESTERLY FLOW MAY STARVE THE SYSTEM OF MOISTURE.
A COOLER, BELOW NORMAL AIR MASS IS FAVORED TO RETURN TO THE REGION
BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS MORE ZONAL TO TROUGH PATTERN SETTLES OVER
THE REGION.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS CONTINUE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVERHEAD. NORTHWEST WINDS ON FRIDAY
SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY ON SATURDAY, BLOWING 5 TO 10 KNOTS EACH
AFTERNOON. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. AS WINDS SHIFT
SOUTHERLY ON SATURDAY, MOISTURE INCREASES LEADING TO INCREASED CLOUD
COVER ACROSS THE TERMINALS.
A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
ON SUNDAY, BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS TO THE
TERMINALS. HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS WILL BRING REDUCED VISIBILITIES
AND LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE TERMINALS SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
LATE EVENING. SOUTHERLY WINDS BLOW AROUND 15 KNOTS, WITH GUSTS
OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON.
CLEARING SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FOR MONDAY, BUT ANOTHER
SYSTEM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY COULD BRING SUBVFR CONDITIONS TO ALL
TERMINALS.
MARINE
WINDS DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. NO MARINE HAZARDS ARE
EXPECTED TODAY OR SATURDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS FORECAST BOTH
DAYS. NORTHWEST WINDS TODAY SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY ON SATURDAY,
BLOWING 5 TO 10 KNOTS EACH AFTERNOON.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LIKELY RETURN ON SUNDAY, AS SOUTH WINDS
INCREASE AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA.
SOUTHERLY WINDS GUST 20 TO 30 KNOTS OVER THE WATERS IN THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. AS THE FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE
WATERS, HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS.
MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS WILL LEAD TO RISING TIDAL
ANOMALIES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SENSITIVE TIDAL LOCATIONS SUCH AS
ANNAPOLIS, SOLOMONS ISLAND, AND HAVRE DE GRACE WILL APPROACH OR
REACH MINOR FLOOD STAGE.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
MDZ008.
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ003>005.
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ501-502-509-
510.
VA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ028>031-039-
040-051-501-502-505-507-508.
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ025>027-503-
504.
WV...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ051>053.
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ050-055-
501>506.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ530-531-538-539-542.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ532>534-537-
540-541-543.
SYNOPSIS...AVS
NEAR TERM...AVS
SHORT TERM...AVS
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...AVS/JMG
MARINE...AVS/JMG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AVS
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