195
FXUS61 KLWX 180723
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
323 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2025
SYNOPSIS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE TODAY, AHEAD OF A POTENT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA ON SUNDAY, BRINGING RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT PUSHED THROUGH THE REGION MIDWEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
PRIMARILY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
OFFSHORE. RETURN FLOW USHERS IN WARMER AIR WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 70S FOR MOST. A FEW ISOLATED
LOCATIONS IN THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA MAY
REACH THE 80S. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS AND NE
MARYLAND WHERE TEMPERATURES STAY IN THE 60S. MOSTLY CLOUDY TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE MORNING WILL DISSIPATE AND GIVE WAY
TO SUNNY SKIES IN THE AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO WARM SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN THE
50S FOR MOST.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY MORNING WILL
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT SWIFTLY APPROACHES THE MID-ATLANTIC
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AT THE SURFACE, A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGHOUT THE DAY
BEFORE PUSHING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
WHILE INSTABILITY REMAINS LIMITED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE,
STRONG FORCING GIVEN THE NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH WILL YIELD
GUSTY WINDS AS RAIN SHOWERS TRACK FROM WEST TO EAST. A LINE OF
GUSTY SHOWERS WILL ENTER THE FORECAST AREA ALONG THE ALLEGHENIES
SUNDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE TRACKING EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE FORECAST AREA IN A MARGINAL
RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS DUE TO A STRONG WIND FIELD ALOFT. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S FOR MOST WITH HIGHER ELEVATIONS
STAYING IN THE 60S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE COOLER THAN THE
PREVIOUS NIGHT, WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S FOR THOSE WEST OF
THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND 50S ELSEWHERE.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES LINGER MONDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT REMAINS
NEARBY. CLOUD COVER GRADUALLY DECREASES THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS OVERHEAD IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER
COMPARED TO SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 30S TO 40S.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTH BRIEFLY TUESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER POTENT TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
AND COLD FRONT CUT ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THE NEXT FRONT
LOOKS TO CROSS LATE TUESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING BRINGING
A LIMITED CHANCE OF RAINFALL. SOME SNOWFLAKES MAY EVEN MIX IN OVER
THE MOUNTAINS AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3000 FEET WITHIN FAVORABLE
UPSLOPE FLOW. 850 MB TEMPERATURES LOOK TO DROP BETWEEN -2 AND +2
DEGREES C WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
YIELD HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 30S AND MID 40S OVER THE
MOUNTAINS WITH MID 50S AND LOW 60S, ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION
HEADING INTO MIDWEEK. A STARK CONTRACT FROM HIGHS IN THE MID 60S AND
LOW 70S TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AS FOR RAINFALL
AMOUNTS, IT WON'T BE ENOUGH TO QUELL THE CURRENT DROUGHT, BUT MAY
STAVE OFF ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR A DAY OR TWO. SOMETHING THAT
WILL HAVE TO CLOSELY WATCH IN THE COMING DAYS.
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING LOOKS TO PERSISTS THROUGH THE BACK HALF
OF THE WORKWEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S AND OVER
THE MIDWEST REGION. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY BEFORE ANOTHER WEAK
FRONT AND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CROSS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE BACK HALF
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH LIGHT WINDS
AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SOUTH WINDS BLOW 5 TO 10 KNOTS
TODAY AS CLOUD COVER DECREASES THROUGHOUT THE DAY. LIGHT SOUTH
WINDS CONTINUE TONIGHT. WINDS INCREASE SUNDAY MORNING AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 TO 35 KNOTS ARE
LIKELY THROUGHOUT THE DAY. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING, LEADING TO LOW
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS DIMINISH THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON MONDAY,
GUSTING AROUND 15 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN
AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS OVERHEAD.
GUSTY POST-FRONTAL NORTHWEST WINDS MONDAY, WHICH DIMINISH BY MONDAY
EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FROM THE SOUTH. VFR CONDITIONS
RETURN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY DESPITE A DRY COLD FRONT PASSING
THROUGH THE REGION. THIS FRONT WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY
WINDS FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
SOUTHERLY WINDS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA
TODAY. AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES, WINDS BEGIN INCREASING
TONIGHT WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LIKELY TOMORROW. ON SUNDAY,
WINDS GUST 20 TO 30 KNOTS ACROSS THE WATERS. IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE, WINDS SHIFT TO WEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND NORTHWEST
BY MONDAY MORNING.
SCA CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGHOUT MOST OF MONDAY IN
POST-FRONTAL WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW. WINDS DECREASE BACK BELOW SUB-
SCA LEVELS MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS
FROM THE SOUTH. ADDITIONAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER FRONT PASSES THROUGH.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO RISING TIDAL ANOMALIES WITH
ANNAPOLIS FORECAST TO HIT MINOR FLOOD STAGE EARLY THIS MORNING.
TIDAL ANOMALIES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE THIS WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MINOR TIDAL FLOODING EXPECTED ACROSS
SENSITIVE AREAS. ANNAPOLIS IS FORECAST TO REACH MODERATE FLOOD
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MDZ014.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...AVS
NEAR TERM...AVS
SHORT TERM...AVS
LONG TERM...EST
AVIATION...AVS/EST
MARINE...AVS/EST
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AVS
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