799
FXUS61 KLWX 051934
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
234 PM EST WED NOV 5 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THIS EVENING, USHERING IN
WINDY AND MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS. WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES
RETURN FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE AND IT'S ASSOCIATED FRONTS CROSS THE REGION, THOUGH THE
AMOUNT OF RAINFALL MAY BE VERY MINIMAL.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AFTERNOON OBSERVATIONS DEPICT GUSTY SW WINDS GENERALLY ALONG AND
EAST OF THE I-81 CORRIDOR, WITH EVEN STRONGER W TO WNW WINDS
WEST OF THAT. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION ARE GENERALLY IN
THE 70S ALL ACROSS THE REGION. AREAS WEST OF I-81 HAVE REALLY
SEEN SIGNIFICANT DRYING IN THOSE DOWNSLOPING WINDS, WITH RH
VALUES DROPPING INTO THE TEENS. THIS, PAIRED WITH WINDS AROUND
20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH, DEPICT CLEAR RED FLAG CONDITIONS
IN THOSE AREAS. ANY FIRES THAT DO GET GOING TODAY ARE LIKELY TO
SPREAD QUICKLY. A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 6
PM. SEE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS. A WIND
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF OUR WESTERN ZONES AND
EXTENDING TO THE EAST INTO THE VARYING TERRAIN OF EASTERN WEST
VIRGINIA, PLUS THIS ADVISORY IS FOR THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS AS
WELL. WINDS COULD GUST UP TO 50 MPH AT PEAK.
FOR AREAS EAST OF I-81, STRONGER WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
ARRIVE THIS EVENING WITH THE COLD FRONT. GUSTS UP TO 35 TO 45
MPH WILL ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT. CAN'T
COMPLETELY RULE OUT GUSTS CLOSE TO 50 MPH, ESPECIALLY RIGHT AT
THE ONSET. SHOULD THIS BECOME EVIDENT, MAY NEED TO CONSIDER A
WIND ADVISORY FURTHER EAST. THE INITIAL SURGE WILL COME ON
PRETTY RAPIDLY, SO THAT IS SOMETHING TO NOTE AHEAD OF THIS
EVENING. THE MAXIMUM WITH THIS SURGE OF WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY
BE ALONG/NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 66 CORRIDOR.
TONIGHT'S LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLDER AND DROP INTO UPPER
30S TO LOWER 40S.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
A DRY DAY IN STORE FOR THURSDAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING QUICKLY BEHIND THE PASSING COLD FRONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLDER THURSDAY THAN TODAY WITH HIGHS MORE
SEASONABLE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S (COLDER IN THE
MOUNTAINS). THERE IS MENTION OF TOMORROW IN THE FIRE WEATHER
DISCUSSION BELOW AS WELL, BUT IN SHORT, MUCH LESS CONCERNED THAN
TODAY GIVEN THE LACK OF OVERLAP BETWEEN STRONGER WINDS AND LOWER
RHS.
AN UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO DIG IN THE OHIO VALLEY
AS HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD MOVES TO THE EAST. A STRONG COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, BUT EXACT
TIMING STILL NEEDS TO BE WORKED OUT. THIS SYSTEM SEEMS TO HAVE A
BETTER CONNECTION TO MOISTURE COMING OUT OF THE GULF OF AMERICA
FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL, AND THAT JUST DOESN'T APPEAR
LIKELY AT THIS TIME. SOME RAIN SHOULD EVOLVE WITH THIS FRONT,
WITH CURRENT FORECASTS AROUND A TENTH OR TWO OF AN INCH OF QPF.
THINGS COULD CHANGE, BUT AS WE ARE GETTING CLOSER TO THIS EVENT,
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A SERIES OF PROGRESSIVE TROUGHS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE ARE A BIT OF
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS, MAINLY WITH THE EUROPEAN SHOWING A THIRD
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH MONDAY. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT ON A FAST
MOVING COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA BY SATURDAY MORNING, THEN A
SECOND WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE OH VALLEY ON SUNDAY.
THIS DRAGS A SECOND, STRONGER COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE FAST MOVING NATURE OF BOTH SYSTEMS, THERE
LIKELY WON'T BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATING RAINFALL. IF
ANYTHING, THE FIRST FROPA ON SATURDAY WILL ACCUMULATE BETTER SINCE
THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD.
WARM AND BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR SATURDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
THE FIRST SYSTEM BRINGS HIGHS TO THE 60S TO LOW 70S. A BIT CLOSER TO
NORMAL ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
A COLD AIRMASS SETTLES OVER THE REGION AT THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
COOL AND BRISK CONDITIONS MONDAY AS HIGHS ONLY REACH THE UPPER 40S
TO LOW 50S, WITH SIMILAR TEMPS FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS GUSTING
AROUND 15-20 MPH WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILLS IN THE 30S TO 40S EVEN IN
THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY.
WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY AT NIGHT STARTING MONDAY
NIGHT, AND THIS SHOULD EFFECTIVELY END THE GROWING SEASON ACROSS THE
AREA. BLUSTERY CONDITIONS AT NIGHT AS WIND CHILLS WILL BE IN THE 20S
AND DOWN TO THE TEENS IN THE ALLEGHENIES.
AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NEARBY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES TODAY. A
STRONG COLD FRONT IS STARTING TO PUSH TOWARDS THE TERMINALS AND
WILL MOVE THROUGH LATER THIS EVENING. NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT NOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER. THE
BIG STORY FOR AVIATION THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE THE WINDS. WINDS
WILL BE OUT OF SOUTHWEST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE
SHIFTING ABRUPTLY OUT OF THE WEST THEN NORTHWEST THIS EVENING.
WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ARE AROUND 20-25 KNOTS FOR
MOST. THERE WILL BE A RAPID INCREASE IN WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT
IN THE CAA THIS EVENING, A ONE TO TWO HOUR PERIOD OF NEAR 40
KNOT WINDS IS POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS SOMETIME BETWEEN 02Z AND
05Z.
WINDS DIE DOWN ON THURSDAY CONSIDERABLY ON THURSDAY, BUT THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS LIKELY HANG ONTO SOME GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON OUT OF THE NW.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND POTENT COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO
APPROACH THE REGION FRIDAY, SO WINDS WILL INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY
OUT OF THE S, WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-30 KNOTS POSSIBLE. AS THE
FIRST IN A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS PUSHES THROUGH FRIDAY, RAIN IS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT FRIDAY, WHICH WILL LIKELY BRIEFLY YIELD SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL THIS WEEKEND, THOUGH THERE
WILL BE A SERIES OF STRONG COLD FRONTS THAT MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.
THIS COULD PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY
MORNING, AND AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS AROUND 20
KNOTS EACH DAY.
MARINE
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A PASSING WARM FRONT AND PRECEDING A COLD
FRONT. WINDS GUSTING 20 TO 30 KNOTS ACROSS THE WATERS LIKELY
TODAY, ESPECIALLY INTO TONIGHT.
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALL WATERS TONIGHT AMIDST
STRONG CAA. THE ONSET OF THESE WINDS WILL COME QUICK, AS WINDS
MAY BRIEFLY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET TO AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS
BEFORE THE PUSH OF CAA COMES THROUGH. GALE CONDITIONS COME ON
RAPIDLY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AFTER 9 PM. SHOULD WINDS TAPER
OFF ENOUGH, AN SMW MAY BE NEEDED NEAR THE ONSET OF THIS EVENT TO
WARN OF THE RAPID ONSET OF GALE-FORCE WINDS, BUT THAT WILL HAVE
TO BE DETERMINED AS THE EVENT IS UNFOLDING.
ALTHOUGH THE WINDS DIMINISH SOME THURSDAY, A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR AFTER THE GALE WARNING AS WINDS MAY
STILL EASILY TOP 20 KNOTS IN THE WATERS AND POSSIBLY PUSHING 30
KNOTS.
WINDS DIMINISH THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH NORTHWEST WINDS DROPPING
BELOW CRITERIA THURSDAY NIGHT.
AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE, STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN ADDITIONAL SCAS ON FRIDAY.
SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND, MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WHERE WINDS COULD GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS. A SERIES OF
COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION, BRINGING PERIODS OF SHOWERS
TO THE WATERS. BEST CHANCE FOR SCAS WOULD BE SUNDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 6 PM THIS EVENING FOR
THE COMBINATION OF EXTREMELY LOW RHS AND STRONG WIND GUSTS. WIND
GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 25-35 MPH, WITH ISOLATED GUSTS
CLOSE TO 50 MPH ON THE RIDGES, WHERE WIND ADVISORIES ARE ALSO IN
EFFECT. THIS, PAIRED WITH CURRENT OBSERVED RH VALUES INTO THE
TEENS AND LOW 20S AND INCREASINGLY DRY FUELS DUE TO NUMEROUS
DRY AND BREEZY DAYS, HAS ME VERY CONCERNED ABOUT ANY FIRES THAT
MAY GET GOING THIS AFTERNOON. AN SPS FOR FIRE WEATHER IS IN
EFFECT FROM EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE ROUGHLY TO THE US-15
CORRIDOR. WHILE NOT AS CRITICAL AS FURTHER WEST, CONDITIONS ARE
STILL CONDUCIVE FOR THE SPREAD OF WILDFIRES.
ANOTHER DAY OF LOW RH EXPECTED ON THURSDAY, BUT WINDS WILL BE ON THE
DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SO, THE WIND AND RH DON'T LOOK TO LINE
UP AT THE RIGHT TIME TO YIELD A SUBSTANTIAL THREAT FOR THE
SPREAD OF WILDFIRES AT THIS TIME. ANY ONGOING FIRES WILL
CERTAINLY HAVE DRY FUELS AND LOW RH TO WORK WITH HOWEVER.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FRIDAY BEFORE MOVING THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. RH VALUES INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS, AND
WETTING RAINS REMAIN POSSIBLE, THOUGH AMOUNTS MAY ONLY BE AROUND
A TENTH OF AN INCH FOR MOST AREAS.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ008.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
MDZ008.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
MDZ008.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MDZ501-502-509-510.
VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR VAZ503-504-507-508.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ025>031-
504-507-508.
WV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ050-055-501>506.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ050>053-
055-502-504-506.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ530>543.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
ANZ530>543.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
ANZ530>543.
SYNOPSIS...CJL
NEAR TERM...CJL
SHORT TERM...CJL
LONG TERM...KRR
AVIATION...CJL/KRR
MARINE...CJL/KRR
FIRE WEATHER...CJL
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