702
FXUS61 KLWX 060218
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
918 PM EST WED NOV 5 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THIS EVENING, USHERING IN
WINDY AND MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS. WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES
RETURN FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE AND IT'S ASSOCIATED FRONTS CROSS THE REGION, THOUGH THE
AMOUNT OF RAINFALL MAY BE VERY MINIMAL.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/
STRONGER WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE ARRIVING THIS EVENING WITH
THE PASSAGE COLD FRONT. GUSTS GENERALLY 35 TO 50 MPH HAVE BEEN
OBSERVED, BUT A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS HAS HELD TOGETHER BETTER
THAN MOST GUIDANCE INDICATED AND HAS PRODUCED LOCALIZED GUSTS
OVER 60 MPH. DESPITE THE LACK OF LIGHTNING, SUCH SITUATIONS ARE
COVERED WITH SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS GIVEN THE CONVECTIVE
ORIGIN OF THE GUSTS. THE THOUGHT IS THAT SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE SOUTHEAST AND ENCOUNTER DRIER AIR AND
CONTINUED DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS. EVEN OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS, THE
INITIAL SURGE WILL COME ON PRETTY RAPIDLY, SO THAT IS SOMETHING
TO NOTE AHEAD OF THIS EVENING AND HAVE ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT TO HIGHLIGHT THIS FACT. THE MAXIMUM WITH THIS SURGE OF
WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY BE ALONG/NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 66
CORRIDOR. WHILE THE PEAK WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY LAST AN HOUR OR
LESS AT ANY GIVEN LOCATIONS, GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH
OF THE NIGHT.
TONIGHT'S LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLDER AND DROP INTO UPPER
30S TO LOWER 40S.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
A DRY DAY IN STORE FOR THURSDAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING QUICKLY BEHIND THE PASSING COLD FRONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLDER THURSDAY THAN TODAY WITH HIGHS MORE
SEASONABLE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S (COLDER IN THE
MOUNTAINS). THERE IS MENTION OF TOMORROW IN THE FIRE WEATHER
DISCUSSION BELOW AS WELL, BUT IN SHORT, MUCH LESS CONCERNED THAN
TODAY GIVEN THE LACK OF OVERLAP BETWEEN STRONGER WINDS AND LOWER
RHS.
AN UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO DIG IN THE OHIO VALLEY
AS HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD MOVES TO THE EAST. A STRONG COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, BUT EXACT
TIMING STILL NEEDS TO BE WORKED OUT. THIS SYSTEM SEEMS TO HAVE A
BETTER CONNECTION TO MOISTURE COMING OUT OF THE GULF OF AMERICA
FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL, AND THAT JUST DOESN'T APPEAR
LIKELY AT THIS TIME. SOME RAIN SHOULD EVOLVE WITH THIS FRONT,
WITH CURRENT FORECASTS AROUND A TENTH OR TWO OF AN INCH OF QPF.
THINGS COULD CHANGE, BUT AS WE ARE GETTING CLOSER TO THIS EVENT,
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A SERIES OF PROGRESSIVE TROUGHS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE ARE A BIT OF
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS, MAINLY WITH THE EUROPEAN SHOWING A THIRD
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH MONDAY. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT ON A FAST
MOVING COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA BY SATURDAY MORNING, THEN A
SECOND WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE OH VALLEY ON SUNDAY.
THIS DRAGS A SECOND, STRONGER COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE FAST MOVING NATURE OF BOTH SYSTEMS, THERE
LIKELY WON'T BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATING RAINFALL. IF
ANYTHING, THE FIRST FROPA ON SATURDAY WILL ACCUMULATE BETTER SINCE
THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD.
WARM AND BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR SATURDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
THE FIRST SYSTEM BRINGS HIGHS TO THE 60S TO LOW 70S. A BIT CLOSER TO
NORMAL ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
A COLD AIRMASS SETTLES OVER THE REGION AT THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
COOL AND BRISK CONDITIONS MONDAY AS HIGHS ONLY REACH THE UPPER 40S
TO LOW 50S, WITH SIMILAR TEMPS FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS GUSTING
AROUND 15-20 MPH WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILLS IN THE 30S TO 40S EVEN IN
THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY.
WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY AT NIGHT STARTING MONDAY
NIGHT, AND THIS SHOULD EFFECTIVELY END THE GROWING SEASON ACROSS THE
AREA. BLUSTERY CONDITIONS AT NIGHT AS WIND CHILLS WILL BE IN THE 20S
AND DOWN TO THE TEENS IN THE ALLEGHENIES.
AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS NEARBY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THIS
EVENING (ROUGHLY 02Z MRB, 03-04Z METRO AREAS, 05Z CHO). A LINE
OF SHOWERS IS HOLDING TOGETHER BETTER THAN MODELS INDICATED,
THOUGH STILL UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH IS LEFT WHEN IT REACHES THE
METRO TERMINALS. PEAK GUSTS OF 35-40 KT ARE LIKELY AS THE FRONT
CROSSES. HOWEVER, ANY SHOWERS COULD AUGMENT GUSTS CLOSER TO 50
KT. THE STRONGEST GUSTS WILL BEGIN RAPIDLY, BUT GENERALLY LAST
AN HOUR OR LESS.
WNW WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST 20-25 KT THROUGH THURSDAY
(EXCEPT PERHAPS SOME BRIEF LESSENING AROUND DAWN). THEN WINDS
SHOULD RAPIDLY DECREASE TOWARD SUNSET THURSDAY.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND POTENT COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO
APPROACH THE REGION FRIDAY, SO WINDS WILL INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY
OUT OF THE S, WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-30 KNOTS POSSIBLE. AS THE
FIRST IN A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS PUSHES THROUGH FRIDAY, RAIN IS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT FRIDAY, WHICH WILL LIKELY BRIEFLY YIELD SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL THIS WEEKEND, THOUGH THERE
WILL BE A SERIES OF STRONG COLD FRONTS THAT MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.
THIS COULD PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY
MORNING, AND AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS AROUND 20
KNOTS EACH DAY.
MARINE
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALL WATERS TONIGHT. WINDS HAVE
SLACKENED ON SOME WATERS THIS EVENING, SO THERE COULD BE A
RAPID ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
BETWEEN 930 PM AND 100 AM. THE STRONGEST WINDS LIKELY ONLY LAST
AN HOUR OR TWO AT MOST LOCATIONS.
ALTHOUGH THE WINDS DIMINISH SOME THURSDAY, A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR AFTER THE GALE WARNING AS WINDS MAY
STILL EASILY TOP 20 KNOTS IN THE WATERS AND POSSIBLY PUSHING 30
KNOTS.
WINDS DIMINISH THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH NORTHWEST WINDS DROPPING
BELOW CRITERIA THURSDAY NIGHT.
AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE, STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN ADDITIONAL SCAS ON FRIDAY.
SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND, MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WHERE WINDS COULD GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS. A SERIES OF
COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION, BRINGING PERIODS OF SHOWERS
TO THE WATERS. BEST CHANCE FOR SCAS WOULD BE SUNDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ANOTHER DAY OF LOW RH EXPECTED ON THURSDAY, BUT WINDS WILL BE
ON THE DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SO, THE WIND AND RH DON'T
LOOK TO LINE UP AT THE RIGHT TIME TO YIELD A SUBSTANTIAL THREAT
FOR THE SPREAD OF WILDFIRES AT THIS TIME. ANY ONGOING FIRES WILL
CERTAINLY HAVE DRY FUELS AND LOW RH TO WORK WITH HOWEVER.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FRIDAY BEFORE MOVING THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. RH VALUES INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS, AND
WETTING RAINS REMAIN POSSIBLE, THOUGH AMOUNTS MAY ONLY BE AROUND
A TENTH OF AN INCH FOR MOST AREAS.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MDZ008.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
MDZ008.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MDZ501-502-509-510.
VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR VAZ503-504-507-508.
WV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ050-055-501>506.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ530>543.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
ANZ530>543.
SYNOPSIS...CJL
NEAR TERM...ADS/CJL
SHORT TERM...CJL
LONG TERM...KRR
AVIATION...ADS/CJL/KRR
MARINE...ADS/CJL/KRR
FIRE WEATHER...CJL
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