697
FXUS61 KLWX 061520
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1020 AM EST THU NOV 6 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TO THE MID-
ATLANTIC TODAY WHILE A WEAKENING COLD FRONT DROPS OUT OF
PENNSYLVANIA AND DISSIPATES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
FRIDAY, THEN A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. A
STRONGER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL FOLLOW FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND USHERING
IN THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON THUS FAR FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
DRY TODAY WITH A GUSTY BREEZE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLDER THAN YESTERDAY WITH HIGHS
MORE SEASONABLE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S (COLDER IN THE
MOUNTAINS). THERE IS A MENTION OF FIRE WEATHER TODAY IN THE
FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW AS WELL, BUT IN SHORT, MUCH LESS
CONCERNED THAN YESTERDAY GIVEN THE LACK OF OVERLAP BETWEEN
STRONGER WINDS AND LOWER RHS. COLDER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND
DRY CONDITIONS. LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
AN UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO DIG IN THE OHIO VALLEY
ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD MOVES TO THE EAST. A STRONG
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY,
BUT EXACT TIMING A LITTLE UNCERTAIN. THIS SYSTEM SEEMS TO HAVE
A BETTER CONNECTION TO MOISTURE COMING OUT OF THE GULF OF
AMERICA FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL, AND THAT JUST DOESN'T
APPEAR LIKELY AT THIS TIME. SOME RAIN SHOULD EVOLVE WITH THIS
FRONT, WITH CURRENT FORECASTS AROUND A TENTH OR TWO OF AN INCH
OF QPF. THINGS COULD CHANGE, BUT AS WE ARE GETTING CLOSER TO
THIS EVENT, CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING. ALSO OF NOTE, FIRE WEATHER
COULD BE AN ISSUED ON FRIDAY FOR THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY. FOR
MORE DETAILS, SEE THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW.
DRY CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY AROUND MIDDAY INTO
SATURDAY AFTERNOON BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE AND A BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
LARGE SCALE TROUGHING WILL PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THIS TROUGHING WILL BE REINFORCED BY A
POWERFUL COLD FRONT SUNDAY. THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS
SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS OR EVEN A
FEW LOW-TOPPED GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS, BUT OVERALL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
LOOK LIGHT (0.25" OR LESS).
THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE COLD AIRMASS IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT.
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO FALL BELOW FREEZING WEST OF I-95 AMID
NORTHWEST BREEZES BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING, WITH 20S EXPECTED OVER
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WIND CHILLS LIKELY DIP TO NEAR OR BELOW
FREEZING AREAWIDE BY DAYBREAK MONDAY, WITH TEENS OR EVEN SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO FOR WIND CHILLS ON THE HIGHER PEAKS. THE CHILL
WILL CONTINUE DURING THE DAY MONDAY AS COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES.
DESPITE BREAKS OF SUN AND DOWNSLOPING WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS, HIGH
TEMPERATURES PROBABLY WON'T ESCAPE THE 40S ON MONDAY, AND MAY REMAIN
IN THE 20S AND 30S FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. COMBINED WITH THE
WIND, IT WILL PROBABLY FEEL MORE LIKE THE 30S ALL DAY (TEENS/20S FOR
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS).
A WIDESPREAD FREEZE IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
THIS WOULD END THE GROWING SEASON WHERE IT REMAINS ACTIVE ALONG THE
I-95 CORRIDOR. SIMILARLY COOL HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR
TUESDAY, WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES BY WEDNESDAY.
ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY, THE FIRST ACCUMULATING
UPSLOPE/MOUNTAIN SNOW EVENT IS LOOKING INCREASINGLY LIKELY FOR AREAS
ALONG AND WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
IT IS TOO SOON TO SPECULATE ON SPECIFIC AMOUNTS, BUT THE POTENTIAL
IS THERE FOR THE SEASON'S FIRST PLOWABLE SNOW.
AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NEARBY. WNW
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST 20-25 KT THROUGH TODAY. THEN WINDS
SHOULD RAPIDLY DECREASE TOWARD SUNSET LATER TODAY.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND POTENT COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO
APPROACH THE REGION FRIDAY, SO WINDS WILL INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY
OUT OF THE S, WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-30 KNOTS POSSIBLE. AS THE
FIRST IN A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS PUSHES THROUGH FRIDAY, RAIN IS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT FRIDAY, WHICH WILL LIKELY BRIEFLY YIELD SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS. VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE SATURDAY ONCE FRONTAL
PASSAGE OCCURS.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, THOUGH A FEW
SHOWERS OR EVEN A LOW-TOPPED THUNDERSTORM COULD BRING BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM CROSSES SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
WINDS WILL TURN FROM SOUTHWEST SUNDAY MORNING TO NORTHWEST SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY. GUSTS OF 15 TO 30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE,
HIGHEST DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS BOTH IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT
SUNDAY AFTERNOON (DEPENDING ON TIMING), AND AGAIN ON MONDAY.
MARINE
GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS THIS MORNING, WITH SCAS NOW
IN EFFECT THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW SCA
LEVELS LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.
AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE, STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
BRING SCA CONDITIONS TO ALL WATERS FRIDAY. AN SCA WAS ISSUED AS
A RESULT, AND GOES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
WINDS QUICKLY TAPER OFF SATURDAY MORNING, TURNING OUT OF THE
WEST.
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT LIKELY GUST 15-25 KTS
SUNDAY MORNING, THEN TURN NORTHWEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY.
GUSTS OF 20-30 KTS, POSSIBLE HIGHER, ARE ANTICIPATED IN THE WAKE OF
A STRONG COLD FRONT LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. GALES CAN'T BE RULED
OUT DURING THIS TIME, THOUGH CURRENT PROBS FOR SUCH CONDITIONS ARE A
BIT ON THE LOW SIDE LIKELY DUE TO TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE
FRONT.
FIRE WEATHER
ANOTHER DAY OF LOW RH EXPECTED TODAY, BUT WINDS WILL BE ON THE
DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SO, THE WIND AND RH DON'T LOOK TO
LINE UP AT THE RIGHT TIME TO YIELD A SUBSTANTIAL THREAT FOR THE
SPREAD OF WILDFIRES AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER, ANY ONGOING FIRES
WILL CERTAINLY HAVE DRY FUELS AND LOW RH TO WORK WITH.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FRIDAY BEFORE MOVING THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE DOES SHOW AN
UPTICK IN THE RH VALUES FOR THE MOST PART, BUT STILL DROPPING
INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S DURING THE AFTERNOON FOR MOST.
LOCALLY, THE SHENADOAH VALLEY MAY SEE MUCH LOWER RH VALUES,
PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTHERN PORTIONS AND UP INTO EASTERN
WV/WEST-CETNRAL MD. THE STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CREATE A
DOWNSLOPING EFFECT ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE BLUE RIDGE
MOUNTAINS, AND SOME GUIDANCE HAS RHS DROPPING BACK DOWN INTO
THE 20S. ADDITIONALLY, WINDS TOMORROW WILL BE AROUND 15-20 MPH,
WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH OUT OF THE SOUTH. THE COMBINATION OF
THESE TWO ELEMENTS, PAIRED WITH VERY DRY FUELS FROM RECENT DAYS,
COULD LEAD TO AN ELEVATED RISK FOR WILDFIRE SPREAD FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. NEW STARTS MAY BE MORE DIFFICULT, OWING TO CLOUDCOVER
AND TEMPS IN THE LOW 60S, BUT ANY ONGOING FIRES COULD FACE SOME
CHALLENGES.
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT, BUT
IT LIKELY TO ONLY YIELD A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF
PRECIPITATION IN ANY ONE GIVEN LOCATION.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MDZ008.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM FRIDAY TO 5 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
MDZ008.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ530>543.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM FRIDAY TO 5 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
ANZ530>534-537-539>543.
LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ531-
532-538.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM FRIDAY TO 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
ANZ535-536-538.
SYNOPSIS...DHOF
NEAR TERM...KLW/CJL
SHORT TERM...KLW/CJL
LONG TERM...DHOF
AVIATION...KLW/DHOF/CJL
MARINE...KLW/DHOF/CJL
FIRE WEATHER...
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