411
FXUS61 KLWX 070900
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
400 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE AS LOW PRESSURE PIVOTS ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT A WARM FRONT
THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, THEN A
COLD FRONT FOLLOWS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL DROP TOWARD THE AREA LATE SATURDAY, THEN
STALL AND RETURN NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THIS COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
STEADILY THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT, MARKING THE LEADING EDGE
OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON THUS FAR. MUCH COLDER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ANOTHER FRONT MAY APPROACH WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A 1022-MB ANTICYCLONE JUST OFFSHORE
OF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA. IN RESPONSE TO THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE,
ADEQUATE RADIATIONAL COOLING EFFECTS ARE BEING OBSERVED OVER THE AREA.
MOST SPOTS HAVE FULLY DECOUPLED UNDERNEATH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WITH
DEW POINTS LARGELY IN THE 20S, SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN ABLE
TO PLUMMET INTO THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S (LOCALLY CLOSER TO 40 DEGREES
INSIDE D.C. AND BALTIMORE). CONSEQUENTLY, HAVE OPTED TO UPGRADE SEVERAL
ZONES FROM FROST ADVISORIES TO FREEZE WARNINGS AS TEMPERATURES HAVE
PLUMMETED TO THE FREEZING MARK. FURTHER EXPANSIONS ARE POSSIBLE AS
OBSERVATIONS DICTATE. SUCH A COLD NIGHT WILL ULTIMATELY END THE GROWING
SEASON AT A NUMBER OF LOCATIONS.
AFTER A CHILLY START TO THE DAY, NOCTURNAL RADIATION INVERSIONS SHOULD
GRADUALLY MIX OUT WITH MID-MORNING SURFACE HEATING. SOUTHWESTERLY
WARM ADVECTION ALOFT WILL QUICKLY WARM THE TROPOSPHERE THROUGH THE
DAY. THE 06Z NAM INDICATED 850-MB TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FROM 1C TO
7C BETWEEN 06-18Z TODAY. WHILE THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS NOT EXPECTED
TO MIX UP TO 850-MB, ENOUGH WARMER AIR ALOFT SHOULD HELP RAISE
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TODAY. THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE CALLS FOR
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S, WITH MAINLY 50S OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.
WIND FIELDS AGAIN PICK UP TODAY AS SOUTHERLY WARM ADVECTION INTENSIFIES
THROUGH THE DAY. WHILE SUCH TRAJECTORIES ARE NOT PARTICULARLY GUSTY
RELATIVE TO WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW, GUSTS UP TO 20 TO 30 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE. THIS DRY AND BREEZY PATTERN FAVORS SOME ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS ACROSS THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY INTO THE EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA
PANHANDLE. PLEASE READ THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION AT THE BOTTOM FOR
MORE DETAILS.
CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS AN UPSTREAM COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS
MAY INCLUDE AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO BACK ACROSS THE
ALLEGHENIES. OTHERWISE, THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM
COMBINED WITH LIMITED MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT A GENERAL TENTH OF
AN INCH OVER THE AREA. HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES
ARE MORE LIKELY ALONG THE ALLEGHENY FRONT GIVEN TERRAIN INFLUENCES.
FORECAST LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S FOR MOST, WITH LOW 50S ALONG AND
EAST OF I-95.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
A MILD WEEKEND LIES AHEAD AS TEMPERATURES WARM BACK INTO THE MID
60S TO LOW 70S. PROGRESSIVE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES WITH
THE MAIN UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR HUDSON BAY. HOWEVER, ANY
ADDITIONAL PERTURBATIONS WILL ONLY AID IN ADDED CLOUD COVER FOR
SATURDAY. A MAINLY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO START THE
WEEKEND BEFORE WARM ADVECTION ENSUES BY SUNDAY AHEAD OF A MUCH
STRONGER SYSTEM.
WHILE SUNDAY IS LIKELY TO BE MILD, THIS DOES COME WITH A RISK OF
SOME PASSING WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS. SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY
BUT THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF DRY TIME IN BETWEEN ANY SUCH
SHOWER ACTIVITY. ON SUNDAY MORNING, THE PARENT COLD FRONT LIES
OFF TO THE WEST OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. WITHIN THE EXPANDING WARM
SECTOR DOWNSTREAM, INCREASING SOUTHERLIES MAY GUST TO AROUND 15
TO 25 MPH. RAINFALL CHANCES INCREASE LATER IN THE DAY AS THE
COLD FRONT BEGINS TO CROSS THE LOCAL AREA. TOTAL AMOUNTS SHOULD
AGAIN BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE, GENERALLY UNDER A QUARTER INCH.
BEHIND THE FRONTAL SYSTEM, WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS PICK UP IN
EARNEST, PARTICULARLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS WHERE GUSTS UP TO 20 TO
30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. LOW TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY NIGHT FALL INTO
THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. OFF TO THE WEST,
THE COLDEST SPOTS WILL BE ALONG THE ALLEGHENIES WITH
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 20S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
SUNDAY'S COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE OFFSHORE BY MONDAY MORNING. IN
ITS WAKE, THE DEEP PARENT UPPER TROUGH AND ITS ACCOMPANYING COLD
AIRMASS WILL PIVOT OVERHEAD. MID/UPPER-LEVEL HEIGHTS AND LOW/MID-
LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE 3-4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW
NORMAL PER NAEFS CLIMATOLOGY (I.E. 850 HPA TEMPS -8 TO -13 C 12Z
TUESDAY, WHICH MAY CHALLENGE THE DAILY RECORD FOR THE KIAD UA).
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND A PERSISTENT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA AND POLAR HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE MIDWEST WILL LEAD TO BLUSTERY CONDITIONS.
DESPITE DOWNSLOPING NORTHWEST FLOW AND PEAKS OF SUNSHINE, HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO ESCAPE THE 40S.
IN FACT, SOME GUIDANCE KEEPS HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S FOR MOST
OF THE REGION (COLDEST TUESDAY). HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL BE NOTABLY
COLDER BY ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES, AND WIND CHILLS WILL BE A FACTOR AS
WELL (RUNNING 10-20 DEGREES BELOW THE AIR TEMPS). WIND CHILLS MAY
NOT GET MUCH ABOVE FREEZING FOR VERY LONG MONDAY AND TUESDAY, EVEN
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS WINDS GUST TO 30 MPH OR MORE.
WITH THE NORTHWEST FLOW COMES A FAVORABLE TRAJECTORY OFF OF THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN THE FIRST ACCUMULATING
UPSLOPE SNOW EVENT OF THE SEASON (LIKELY BEGINS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
AND PERSISTS INTO MONDAY NIGHT OR PERHAPS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING). IT
REMAINS A BIT TOO SOON TO SPECULATE ON EXACT AMOUNTS, BUT THE FIRST
PLOWABLE SNOWFALL OF THE SEASON IS BECOMING EVER MORE LIKELY ALONG
AND WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT. SOME GUIDANCE IMPLIES POSSIBLE
WARNING-LEVEL SNOWFALL ALONG THE WEST-FACING SLOPES OF THE HIGHER
PEAKS, WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN SOME INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE
OVERLAPPING THE DGZ (AS EVIDENCED BY A HIGH SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER).
AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE AND HIGHER FROUDE NUMBERS INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION MOVING EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT, WITH
ACCUMULATING SNOW POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT INTO THE FOOTHILLS EAST OF THE HIGHEST RIDGES. DEPENDING ON
THE STRENGTH OF THE WAVE AND THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE, SNOW
SHOWERS MAY DOT THE LANDSCAPE WELL INTO THE PIEDMONT AND POSSIBLY
EVEN THE METRO AREAS MONDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION IS UNLIKELY EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS, THE COLD AIR AND
SNOW SHOWER POTENTIAL WOULD BE A FITTING REMINDER OF THE RECORD
VETERAN'S DAY SNOWSTORM THAT OCCURRED NEARLY 4 DECADES AGO.
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN TO MODERATE. A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH AND MOVE THROUGH THE
MID-ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, WHICH WOULD TEMPORARILY PAUSE
THE WARMING TREND.
AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
UNDERNEATH A DEPARTING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE, VFR CONDITIONS
CONTINUE ACROSS ALL TERMINALS. THROUGH THE DAY, SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL PICK UP WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS TO AROUND 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
BEFORE THIS OCCURS, A BRIEF PERIOD OF ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL WIND
SHEAR IS POSSIBLE, MAINLY IN THE 11-15Z TIMEFRAME. ANY RAIN
SHOWERS THAT ARRIVE COME IN TONIGHT WITH BORDERLINE
RESTRICTIONS. FOR NOW, WILL MAINTAIN A SCT015 GROUP, BUT
CONDITIONS COULD TURN MVFR AT TIMES IF RAINFALL TURNS MODERATE
IN INTENSITY.
CONDITIONS DRY OUT ON SATURDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS WINDS
TURN NORTHWESTERLY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEKEND BEFORE A STRONGER SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION DURING
THE SECOND HALF OF SUNDAY. BEFORE THIS SYSTEM ARRIVES,
SOUTHERLIES WILL GUST TO AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH SOME PASSING
SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY. THE MENTIONED COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT YIELDING AN ABRUPT SHIFT TO WEST TO
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. THIS MAY YIELD SOME UPTICK IN WINDS AS WELL
AS THIS FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION.
SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DRAPE OVER
THE REGION IN NORTHWEST FLOW MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, ALONG WITH
BLUSTERY CONDITIONS AND MUCH COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. GUSTS
COULD APPROACH OR SLIGHTLY EXCEED 30 KNOTS AT TIMES, WHICH WILL KEEP
WIND CHILLS BELOW FREEZING FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. COME MONDAY
EVENING AND NIGHT, A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE LARGER SCALE TROUGH
AND NORTHWEST FLOW COULD BRING A FEW FLAKES EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS.
ALTHOUGH SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL APPEARS UNLIKELY EAST OF
THE APPALACHIANS AT THIS TIME, SOME BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE.
MARINE
IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE
MIDWEST, SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY. AS SUCH,
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN PLACE FOR ALL MARINE ZONES THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GUSTS UP TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE
DURING THIS PERIOD. THE PARENT COLD FRONT BRINGS A BATCH OF
SHOWERS THROUGH THE WATERS BY LATER TONIGHT WITH WINDS SHIFTING
OVER TO WESTERLY BEHIND THE SYSTEM.
WINDS BECOME NORTHWESTERLY ON SATURDAY AND STAY BELOW ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS. ANOTHER UPTICK IN WIND FIELDS IS LIKELY FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF SUNDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INTENSIFIES AHEAD OF A
STRONGER FRONTAL SYSTEM. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AS WELL AS FOR THE GUSTY WEST-
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE WAKE.
BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS MAY APPROACH GALE FORCE AT TIMES,
ESPECIALLY EARLY ON MONDAY AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS AN
EMBEDDED WAVE PASSES OVERHEAD. GENERALLY SPEAKING, FREQUENT GUSTS OF
20 TO 30 KNOTS AND MUCH COLDER THAN NORMAL WEATHER IS EXPECTED EARLY
NEXT WEEK. A RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER CAN'T BE RULED OUT MONDAY NIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TODAY BEFORE MOVING
THROUGH LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE DOES
SHOW AN UPTICK IN THE RH VALUES FOR THE MOST PART, BUT STILL
DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S DURING THE AFTERNOON FOR
MOST. LOCALLY, THE SHENADOAH VALLEY MAY SEE MUCH LOWER RH VALUES,
PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTHERN PORTIONS AND UP INTO EASTERN WV/WEST-
CENTRAL MD. THE STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CREATE A DOWNSLOPING
EFFECT ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS, AND SOME
GUIDANCE HAS RHS DROPPING BACK DOWN INTO THE 20S. ADDITIONALLY,
WINDS TODAY WILL BE AROUND 15-20 MPH, WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH
OUT OF THE SOUTH. THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO ELEMENTS, PAIRED
WITH VERY DRY FUELS FROM RECENT DAYS, COULD LEAD TO AN ELEVATED
RISK FOR WILDFIRE SPREAD THIS AFTERNOON. NEW FIRE STARTS MAY BE MORE
DIFFICULT, OWING TO CLOUD COVER AND TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 60S,
BUT ANY ONGOING FIRES COULD FACE SOME CHALLENGES.
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH TONIGHT, BUT IT IS
LIKELY TO ONLY YIELD UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION IN ANY
ONE GIVEN LOCATION.
A STRONGER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE SUNDAY LEADING TO MORE GUSTY
WINDS, BUT MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEEK.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
WHILE TIDAL LEVELS REMAIN ON THE LOWER SIDE, EXPECT AN UPTICK IN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS IN RESPONSE TO THE SOUTHERLY FLOW.
HOWEVER, NO TIDAL FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR DCZ001.
MD...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MDZ008-016-504-
506.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR MDZ008.
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MDZ011-013-014-
017-018-508.
VA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VAZ053-055-527.
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VAZ054-057.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR ANZ530>534-537-539>543.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR ANZ535-536-538.
SYNOPSIS...DHOF
NEAR TERM...BRO
SHORT TERM...BRO
LONG TERM...DHOF
AVIATION...BRO/DHOF
MARINE...BRO/DHOF
FIRE WEATHER...LWX
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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