126
FXUS61 KLWX 071924
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
224 PM EST FRI NOV 7 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH RAIN CHANCES
RETURNING LATER THIS EVENING INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS A COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH THE AREA
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH A STRONGER COLD FRONT TO FOLLOW SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BRING THE COLDEST AIR BY FAR THIS
SEASON ALONG WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW OVER THE ALLEGHENY MOUNTAINS.
COLD TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY
BEFORE ANOTHER WARM UP BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
INCREASING CLOUDS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE AND A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. SHOWERS AND FEW
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN NOTED ALONG THE FRONT AS IT
MAKES IT'S WAY TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER AND INTO WESTERN PA. THE
FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH INTO THE ALLEGHENIES LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND TOWARD THE BLUE RIDGE/I-95 METROS THIS EVENING
INTO TONIGHT (AFTER 6-9PM).
IN THE MEANTIME, EXPECT GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING AS SOUTHERLY WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES TO
INTENSIFY AHEAD OF THE INCUMBENT FRONT. FLOW WILL GENERALLY BE
OUT OF THE WEST WITH A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT JUST EAST OF THE
ALLEGHENY MOUNTAINS. WITH THAT SAID, ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS REMAIN FOR PORTIONS OF THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY AND
EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA. THIS IS LARGELY DUE IN PART TO THE
COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RH VALUES (30-40 PERCENT)
ALONG WITH ONGOING FIRE/DROUGHT CONCERNS. THE THREAT TODAY
SHOULD NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD GIVEN THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND
UPTICK IN MOISTURE ON SOUTHERLY FLOW. PLEASE READ THE FIRE
WEATHER SECTION AT THE BOTTOM FOR MORE DETAILS. EXPECT HIGHS
THIS AFTERNOON IN THE UPPER 50S AND MID 60S. MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS
WILL BE A TOUCH COOLER IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.
RAIN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP WEST OF THE ALLEGHENIES LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
(BETWEEN 4- 7PM). CURRENT HREF PROBS HAVE CAPE VALUES LESS THAN
300 J/KG AND A SMATTERING OF 40 DBZ PAINTBALLS BETWEEN
21Z-1Z/4-8PM. STORMS WILL REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS GIVEN
STABILITY ALOFT. MOST WILL SEE A PROGRESSIVE BAND/AREA OF LIGHT
TO MODERATE SHOWERS WORK FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION
(BETWEEN 3Z-10Z/10PM-5AM). MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED WITH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY BETWEEN A 0.10 TO 0.25 INCHES
AREAWIDE. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
ALLEGHENIES GIVEN TERRAIN INFLUENCES.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S AND AND MID 50S WITH
INCREASED CLOUD COVER. THESE VALUES WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN
PREVIOUS NIGHTS GIVEN A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH AHEAD OF THE MAIN
COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. RAIN CHANCES WILL
QUICKLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST HEADING INTO DAYBREAK SATURDAY AS
DRIER AIR QUICKLY PUSHES IN.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
IT'S THE UPSIDE OF THE ROLLER COASTER BEFORE THE BIG FALL
HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN IT COMES TO TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO WARM BACK INTO THE MID
60S AND LOW 70S OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS ON BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. SATURDAY WILL FEATURE MORE SUNSHINE COMPARED TO CLOUD
COVER ALTHOUGH SUNDAY COULD BE WARMER GIVEN THE FACT THAT A WARM
FRONT WILL BE LIFTING THROUGH THE AREA.
SYNOPTICALLY, PROGRESSIVE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT REMAINS WITH UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER HUDSON BAY AND SEVERAL
PERTURBATIONS PIVOTING AROUND IT. THE MOST NOTABLE WILL BE AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ARTIC FRONT DIGGING SOUTH WITHIN A
POTENT TROUGH SUNDAY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY PROVIDING INCREASING CLOUDS AND SOME PASSING
WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOWERS. SHOWER COVERAGE WILL BE FAIRLY
SCATTERED WITH DRY TIME IN BETWEEN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO BECOME A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD LATER
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING (SUNDAY) AS THE FRONT CROSSES FROM
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. ONCE AGAIN RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE
FAIRLY LIGHT WITH MOST LOCATIONS RECEIVING LESS THAN A QUARTER
OF AN INCH. IN THE ALLEGHENIES, RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS COLDER AIR RUSHES IN ON GUSTY NORTHWEST
FLOW. EXPECT 850MB TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AFTERNOON OF +5 TO +8
DEGREES C SUNDAY AFTERNOON CRASHING TO +3 TO -6 DEGREES C SUNDAY
EVENING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION SUNDAY NIGHT
OVER THE ALLEGHENIES WOULD BE CONFINED TO GRASSY SURFACES WITH
THE WARM SURFACE TEMPERATURES FROM THE PRIOR 2 DAYS IN THE 50S
AS WELL AS RAINFALL EARLIER IN THE DAY. SEE
WEATHER.GOV/LWX/WINTER FOR MORE DETAILS ON SNOWFALL.
WIND WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE SUNDAY ON TOP OF THE RAIN AND SNOW
CHANCES. EXPECT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST GUSTS OF 15 TO 25 MPH AHEAD OF
THE BOUNDARY WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 35 MPH IN POST-FRONTAL WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY
NIGHT FALL INTO THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH
20S OVER THE ALLEGHENIES. WIND CHILLS EARLY MONDAY MORNING IN THE
MOUNTAINS WILL FEEL MORE LIKE THE TEENS AND LOW 20S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY
MORNING WITH A DEEP PARENT UPPER TROUGH EXPECTED TO PIVOT
OVERHEAD BY EARLY TUESDAY. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED
BEHIND THIS FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING ON
BLUSTERY NW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 35 MPH. TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WILL BE HARD TO GET OUT OF THE 40S WITH WIND CHILLS IN
THE 20S AT NIGHT AND MID 30S DURING THE DAY. ACCUMULATING SNOW
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FOR AREAS WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT. HIGH
FROUDE NUMBERS ON MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG NW FLOW
INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SHOWERS TO MAKE IT WELL EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON, POSSIBLY DUSTING THE GROUND IN A FEW
PLACES. OVER THE MOUNTAINS, TWO TO FOURTH TENTHS LIQUID WATER
EQUIVALENT AMOUNTS COMBINED WITH HIGH SLRS OF 18 TO 1 MAY YIELD
SNOW TOTALS OF 3 TO 7 INCHES OVER THE FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS SUCH
AS BAYARD WV AND WESTERN GARRETT COUNTY MD. AS OF RIGHT NOW, IT
STILL LOOKS LIKE AN ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW EVENT WITH A SMALL
CHANCE OF MEETING WARNING CRITERIA.
THE TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION ALOFT AND SNOW SHOWERS DIMINISHING. CLEAR AND COLD TUESDAY
NIGHT UNDER DIMINISHING WINDS. WARMER FOR THE MIDDLE AND SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEK AS PATTERN DEAMPLIFIES.
AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
THE VALID TAF PERIOD. OUTSIDE OF INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD
COVER, WIND WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN FOR AVIATION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE RISK FOR LLWS HAS SINCE DECREASED ALTHOUGH INTENSIFYING
SOUTHERLY WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES TO YIELD GUSTS OF 20 TO 30
KTS AMONGST THE TERMINALS. WINDS WILL BE SLOW TO DECREASE THIS
EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT WORKS THROUGH THE
REGION.
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS RETURN OVERNIGHT (MOST LIKELY LOW END VFR
AND MVFR CIGS/VSBYS) AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. LIGHT
TO MODERATE SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT AS IT PUSHES
THROUGH. SHOWERS WILL WORK INTO TERMINALS WEST OF KMRB PRIOR TO
23-02Z/6-9PM. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD EAST TOWARD THE CORRIDOR
BETWEEN 03- 09Z/10PM-4AM. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN QUICKLY
SATURDAY AS THE FRONT DEPARTS TO THE EAST AND WINDS TURN BACK TO
THE NORTHWEST DRAGGING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. SKIES WILL
CLEAR FOR MOST TERMINALS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS MID TO LATE
SATURDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER IS LIKELY SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE AREA. GUSTS OF 15
TO 20 KTS OUT OF THE SOUTH WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT AS
IT PUSHES THROUGH. SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOWERS COULD LEAD TO
TEMPORARY REDUCTIONS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH SOME
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN OVERALL COVERAGE.
A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY EVENING AND
NIGHT YIELDING AN ABRUPT WIND SHIFT FROM THE SOUTH TO THE
WEST/NORTHWEST. GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE
IMMEDIATE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. POST-FRONTAL WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH MONDAY.
SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DRAPE OVER
THE REGION IN NORTHWEST FLOW MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, ALONG WITH
BLUSTERY CONDITIONS AND MUCH COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS MONDAY AND TUESDAY GUSTING 25-30 KT,
STRONGER ON TUESDAY. COME MONDAY EVENING AND NIGHT, A SHORTWAVE
EMBEDDED IN THE LARGER SCALE TROUGH AND NORTHWEST FLOW COULD BRING A
FEW FLAKES EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. ALTHOUGH SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL APPEARS UNLIKELY EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS AT THIS TIME,
SOME BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE.
MARINE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN PLACE FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. GUSTS UP TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS
PERIOD. THE WINDS ARE DUE IN PART TO DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE
OFFSHORE AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS TO THE WATERS
LATE TONIGHT AFTER 04Z/11PM WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST SATURDAY MORNING.
WINDS BECOME NORTHWESTERLY ON SATURDAY AND STAY BELOW ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS. ANOTHER UPTICK IN WIND FIELDS IS LIKELY FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF SUNDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INTENSIFIES AHEAD OF A STRONGER
FRONTAL SYSTEM. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AHEAD
OF THIS SYSTEM AS WELL AS FOR THE GUSTY WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS IN
THE WAKE.
STRONG SCA CONDITIONS MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY IN BLUSTERY WEST
TO NORTHWEST FLOW. STRONGEST WINDS ON TUESDAY WITH POSSIBLE
GALES.
FIRE WEATHER
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE DOES SHOW AN UPTICK IN THE RH VALUES FOR THE
MOST PART, BUT STILL DROPPING INTO THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S DURING THE
AFTERNOON FOR MOST. LOCALLY, THE SHENADOAH VALLEY MAY SEE MUCH LOWER
RH VALUES, PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTHERN PORTIONS AND UP INTO EASTERN
WV/WEST-CENTRAL MD. THE STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CREATE A
DOWNSLOPING EFFECT ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE BLUE
RIDGE/ALLEGHENY MOUNTAINS. ADDITIONALLY, WINDS TODAY WILL BE
AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH, WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH OUT OF THE SOUTH.
THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO ELEMENTS, PAIRED WITH VERY DRY
FUELS FROM RECENT DAYS, COULD LEAD TO AN ELEVATED RISK FOR
WILDFIRE SPREAD THIS AFTERNOON. NEW FIRE STARTS MAY BE MORE
DIFFICULT, OWING TO CLOUD COVER AND TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO
MID 60S, BUT ANY ONGOING FIRES COULD FACE SOME CHALLENGES.
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH TONIGHT, BUT IT IS
LIKELY TO ONLY YIELD UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION IN
ANY ONE GIVEN LOCATION.
A STRONGER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE SUNDAY LEADING TO MORE
GUSTY WINDS, BUT MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER
TENTH TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE WITH THE
SECONDARY FRONT SUNDAY. ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL ALSO BE CONCERN
FOR THE ALLEGHENIES. EVEN WITH ALL THAT SAID, ADDITIONAL FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK
GIVEN GUSTY POST FRONTAL WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
WHILE TIDAL LEVELS REMAIN ON THE LOWER SIDE, EXPECT AN UPTICK IN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS IN RESPONSE TO THE SOUTHERLY FLOW.
HOWEVER, NO TIDAL FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SATURDAY FOR MDZ008.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ530>534-
537-539>543.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ535-536-
538.
SYNOPSIS...EST
NEAR TERM...EST
SHORT TERM...EST
LONG TERM...LFR
AVIATION...LFR/DHOF/EST
MARINE...LFR/EST
FIRE WEATHER...BRO/EST
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BRO/LFR
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