292
FXUS61 KLWX 080212
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
912 PM EST FRI NOV 7 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH A
STRONGER COLD FRONT TO FOLLOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS
FRONT WILL BRING THE COLDEST AIR BY FAR THIS SEASON ALONG WITH
ACCUMULATING SNOW OVER THE ALLEGHENY MOUNTAINS. COLD
TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY
BEFORE ANOTHER WARM UP BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/
RAIN HAS BEEN SLOW TO CROSS THE MOUNTAINS DUE TO A COMBINATION
OF A VERY LOW FROUDE NUMBER, SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS,
AND RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL DRY AIR. HOWEVER, STRONG JET AND PVA
FORCING AND LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL SPREAD ACROSS
THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. RADAR HAS RECENTLY STARTED
FILLING IN AS A RESULT. STILL, THE BAND OF SHOWERS WILL BE
PROGRESSIVE AND LIGHT TO BRIEFLY MODERATE IN NATURE. THUS MOST
AREAS WILL END UP WITH ONLY A TENTH TO PERHAPS QUARTER OF AN
INCH OF RAIN (EXCEPT WEST OF THE DIVIDE WHERE RAIN IS LASTING
LONGER). ANY SHOWERS SHOULD EXIT BY 6 OR 7 AM WITH CLEARING
TRAILING NOT LONG BEHIND THE BACK EDGE OF SHOWERS. THE ACTUAL
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT, DEPARTING TO
THE EAST AFTER SUNRISE SATURDAY.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S AND AND MID 50S WITH
INCREASED CLOUD COVER. THESE VALUES WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN
PREVIOUS NIGHTS GIVEN A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH AHEAD OF THE MAIN
COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
IT'S THE UPSIDE OF THE ROLLER COASTER BEFORE THE BIG FALL
HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN IT COMES TO TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO WARM BACK INTO THE MID
60S AND LOW 70S OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS ON BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. SATURDAY WILL FEATURE MORE SUNSHINE COMPARED TO CLOUD
COVER ALTHOUGH SUNDAY COULD BE WARMER GIVEN THE FACT THAT A WARM
FRONT WILL BE LIFTING THROUGH THE AREA.
SYNOPTICALLY, PROGRESSIVE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT REMAINS WITH UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER HUDSON BAY AND SEVERAL
PERTURBATIONS PIVOTING AROUND IT. THE MOST NOTABLE WILL BE AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ARTIC FRONT DIGGING SOUTH WITHIN A
POTENT TROUGH SUNDAY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY PROVIDING INCREASING CLOUDS AND SOME PASSING
WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOWERS. SHOWER COVERAGE WILL BE FAIRLY
SCATTERED WITH DRY TIME IN BETWEEN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO BECOME A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD LATER
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING (SUNDAY) AS THE FRONT CROSSES FROM
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. ONCE AGAIN RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE
FAIRLY LIGHT WITH MOST LOCATIONS RECEIVING LESS THAN A QUARTER
OF AN INCH. IN THE ALLEGHENIES, RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS COLDER AIR RUSHES IN ON GUSTY NORTHWEST
FLOW. EXPECT 850MB TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AFTERNOON OF +5 TO +8
DEGREES C SUNDAY AFTERNOON CRASHING TO +3 TO -6 DEGREES C SUNDAY
EVENING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION SUNDAY NIGHT
OVER THE ALLEGHENIES WOULD BE CONFINED TO GRASSY SURFACES WITH
THE WARM SURFACE TEMPERATURES FROM THE PRIOR 2 DAYS IN THE 50S
AS WELL AS RAINFALL EARLIER IN THE DAY. SEE
WEATHER.GOV/LWX/WINTER FOR MORE DETAILS ON SNOWFALL.
WIND WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE SUNDAY ON TOP OF THE RAIN AND SNOW
CHANCES. EXPECT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST GUSTS OF 15 TO 25 MPH AHEAD OF
THE BOUNDARY WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 35 MPH IN POST-FRONTAL WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY
NIGHT FALL INTO THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH
20S OVER THE ALLEGHENIES. WIND CHILLS EARLY MONDAY MORNING IN THE
MOUNTAINS WILL FEEL MORE LIKE THE TEENS AND LOW 20S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY
MORNING WITH A DEEP PARENT UPPER TROUGH EXPECTED TO PIVOT
OVERHEAD BY EARLY TUESDAY. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED
BEHIND THIS FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING ON
BLUSTERY NW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 35 MPH. TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WILL BE HARD TO GET OUT OF THE 40S WITH WIND CHILLS IN
THE 20S AT NIGHT AND MID 30S DURING THE DAY. ACCUMULATING SNOW
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FOR AREAS WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT. HIGH
FROUDE NUMBERS ON MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG NW FLOW
INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SHOWERS TO MAKE IT WELL EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON, POSSIBLY DUSTING THE GROUND IN A FEW
PLACES. OVER THE MOUNTAINS, TWO TO FOURTH TENTHS LIQUID WATER
EQUIVALENT AMOUNTS COMBINED WITH HIGH SLRS OF 18 TO 1 MAY YIELD
SNOW TOTALS OF 3 TO 7 INCHES OVER THE FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS SUCH
AS BAYARD WV AND WESTERN GARRETT COUNTY MD. AS OF RIGHT NOW, IT
STILL LOOKS LIKE AN ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW EVENT WITH A SMALL
CHANCE OF MEETING WARNING CRITERIA.
THE TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION ALOFT AND SNOW SHOWERS DIMINISHING. CLEAR AND COLD TUESDAY
NIGHT UNDER DIMINISHING WINDS. WARMER FOR THE MIDDLE AND SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEK AS PATTERN DEAMPLIFIES.
AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
TIMING THE RAIN AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT HAS BEEN DIFFICULT AS PART
OF THE BAND BROKE UP CROSSING THE MOUNTAINS. IT IS FILLING BACK
IN BUT REMAINS LIGHT DUE TO LOW LEVEL DRY AIR. AS DEEPER
MOISTURE OVERSPREAD THE AREA IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, THE RAIN
INTENSITY MAY GRADUALLY INCREASE. HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO FOR MVFR
CONDITIONS DURING THE MOST LIKELY PERIOD OF MODERATE SHOWERS
(AROUND 04-07Z EXCEPT EARLIER AT MRB), BUT THIS DROP IN
CEILINGS/VISIBILITY ISN'T ABSOLUTELY CERTAIN IF RAIN REMAINS
LIGHT. THERE IS A BETTER SIGNAL FOR SOME MVFR CEILINGS FOR A
FEW HOURS AT BWI/MTN BETWEEN THE RAIN TAPERING OFF AND THE
FRONTAL WIND SHIFT. WHILE A FEW SOUTHWESTERLY GUSTS TO 20 KT
REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS, OVERALL THE STRONGER
GUSTS SEEN EARLIER IN THE DAY HAVE CEASED.
VFR CONDITIONS RETURN QUICKLY SATURDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT
DEPARTS TO THE EAST AND WINDS TURN BACK TO THE NORTHWEST
DRAGGING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. WINDS TURN BACK TO THE
SOUTHEAST BY SATURDAY EVENING. ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER IS LIKELY
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE AREA.
GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KTS OUT OF THE SOUTH WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY
THIS FRONT AS IT PUSHES THROUGH. SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOWERS
COULD LEAD TO TEMPORARY REDUCTIONS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT
ALTHOUGH SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN OVERALL COVERAGE.
A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY EVENING AND
NIGHT YIELDING AN ABRUPT WIND SHIFT FROM THE SOUTH TO THE
WEST/NORTHWEST. GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE
IMMEDIATE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. POST-FRONTAL WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH MONDAY.
SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DRAPE OVER
THE REGION IN NORTHWEST FLOW MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, ALONG WITH
BLUSTERY CONDITIONS AND MUCH COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS MONDAY AND TUESDAY GUSTING 25-30 KT,
STRONGER ON TUESDAY. COME MONDAY EVENING AND NIGHT, A SHORTWAVE
EMBEDDED IN THE LARGER SCALE TROUGH AND NORTHWEST FLOW COULD BRING A
FEW FLAKES EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. ALTHOUGH SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL APPEARS UNLIKELY EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS AT THIS TIME,
SOME BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE.
MARINE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN PLACE FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH 1 AM.
GUSTS UP TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS ARE STILL OCCURRING ALONG THE BAY,
BUT HAVE DROPPED OFF ON THE NARROWER WATERWAYS. LEAVING THE
ADVISORY IN PLACE NOW SINCE THERE COULD STILL BE A FEW ROGUE
GUSTS AT TIMES. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT TO MODERATE
SHOWERS TO THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT AFTER 04Z/11PM WITH WINDS
SHIFTING TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST SATURDAY MORNING. CONTRARY TO
MANY COLD FRONTS, WINDS SHOULD STAY BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS
SATURDAY.
ANOTHER UPTICK IN WIND FIELDS IS LIKELY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
SUNDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INTENSIFIES AHEAD OF A STRONGER FRONTAL
SYSTEM. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM AS WELL AS FOR THE GUSTY WEST- NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
IN THE WAKE.
STRONG SCA CONDITIONS MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY IN BLUSTERY WEST
TO NORTHWEST FLOW. STRONGEST WINDS ON TUESDAY WITH POSSIBLE
GALES.
FIRE WEATHER
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TONIGHT. MOST AREAS WILL ONLY SEE
A TENTH TO QUARTER INCH OF RAIN (IF THAT), THOUGH HIGHER AMOUNTS
ARE LIKELY ALONG AND WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY DIVIDE WHERE THE
RAINS WILL LAST LONGER. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THIS
FRONT SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
A STRONGER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE SUNDAY LEADING TO MORE
GUSTY WINDS, BUT MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER
TENTH TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE WITH THE
SECONDARY FRONT SUNDAY. ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL ALSO BE CONCERN
FOR THE ALLEGHENIES. EVEN WITH ALL THAT SAID, ADDITIONAL FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK
GIVEN GUSTY POST FRONTAL WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
TIDE LEVELS HAVE REBOUNDED DUE TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS. THERE
WON'T BE TOO MUCH VARIATION OVER THE WEEKEND WITHOUT ANY STRONG
OFFSHORE FLOW TO PUSH WATER AWAY. SOME LOCATIONS MAY REACH
CAUTION STAGE BUT MINOR FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SATURDAY FOR MDZ008.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ530>534-
537-539>543.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ535-536-
538.
SYNOPSIS...EST
NEAR TERM...ADS/EST
SHORT TERM...EST
LONG TERM...LFR
AVIATION...ADS/LFR/DHOF/EST
MARINE...ADS/LFR/EST
FIRE WEATHER...EST/ADS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...ADS
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