634
FXUS61 KLWX 081443
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
943 AM EST SAT NOV 8 2025
SYNOPSIS
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL DROP TOWARD THE AREA LATE TODAY, THEN
STALL AND RETURN NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THIS COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
STEADILY THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT, MARKING THE LEADING EDGE
OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON THUS FAR. MUCH COLDER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ANOTHER FRONT MAY APPROACH WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, WITH HIGH
PRESSURE LIKELY TO RETURN BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE IN AS A COLD FRONT DEPARTS THE
FORECAST AREA OFF THE EAST COAST. THE 12Z IAD SOUNDING SHOWS
PLENTY OF DRY AIR ALOFT WITH A MID-LEVEL RH VALUE OF 45
PERCENT. ADDITIONALLY, VISIBLE SATELLITE AS OF 9:30 AM SHOWS
SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING
THE ALLEGHENIES WHERE PARTLY SUNNY SKIES CAN BE OBSERVED. NO
CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
DISCUSSION BELOW.
EXPECT DAYTIME HEATING TO UNFOLD RATHER QUICKLY AIDED BY A
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPING FLOW. WITH FORECAST 850-MB
TEMPERATURES AROUND 6 TO 8C, A WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD
SUPPORT DRY ADIABATIC MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE. THIS WOULD
FAVOR HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S, ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF I-70 AND ACROSS THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY. MID 60S WILL BE
MORE COMMONPLACE CLOSER TO THE MASON-DIXON LINE, WHILE 50S CAN
BE EXPECTED OVER MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE
LIKELY BEFORE CLOUDS INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY AS AN UPSTREAM
SHORTWAVE DIGS TOWARD THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TONIGHT BEFORE
LIFTING NORTH OF THE MASON-DIXON LINE. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. CONSEQUENTLY, A SLEW
OF WEAKLY DEFINED PERTURBATIONS IN THE FLOW ALOFT TRACK THROUGH
OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT, LIGHT WARM ADVECTION SHOWER ACTIVITY
BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHWARD FROM CENTRAL VIRGINIA NEAR DAYBREAK.
FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 40S, WITH SPOTTY LOW
50S INSIDE D.C. AND BALTIMORE, AS WELL AS NEAR THE CHESAPEAKE
BAY.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
FOR THE WEEKEND, SUNDAY PRESENTS THE MORE UNSETTLED OF THE TWO
DAYS. THE 00Z HREF SOLUTION SHOWS THE MENTIONED AREA OF WARM
ADVECTION SHOWERS LIFTING ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY MORNING
BEFORE MOVING INTO NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND BY EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. ONCE THIS WAVE OF PRECIPITATION PIVOTS OUT INTO THE
DELMARVA REGION, HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS BREAK OUT SCATTERED
SHOWERS DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. DEPENDING ON THE
DEGREE OF BUOYANCY IN THE ATMOSPHERE, A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ANY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD STAY OFF TO THE
SOUTH NEAR SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA WHERE A MARGINAL RISK EXISTS.
ASIDE FROM THESE THREATS OF SHOWERS, SUNDAY PRESENTS ANOTHER
MILD DAY AHEAD OF THE BLAST OF COLD AIR TO START THE NEXT WORK
WEEK. FORECAST HIGHS WILL AGAIN BE IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S,
WITH 50S TO LOW 60S FOR MOUNTAIN LOCALES. SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY
BREEZES WILL GUST UP TO 15 TO 25 MPH AT TIMES.
A POTENT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE I-95 CORRIDOR BY
EARLY SUNDAY EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD ACCOMPANY THIS
BOUNDARY BEFORE QUICKLY DRYING OUT. IN THE WAKE, AN ABRUPT SHIFT
TO WESTERLY WINDS TAKES PLACE WHICH WILL BECOME GUSTY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. SUCH GUSTS PUSH INTO THE 25 TO 35 MPH AS COLD
ADVECTION ENSUES.
ANY PRECIPITATION THREATS SHIFT OVER TO THE ALLEGHENY FRONT AS
SUPPORTED BY UPSLOPE AIDED TRAJECTORIES. SHOWERS THAT BEGIN AS
RAIN WILL LIKELY SWITCH OVER TO SNOW ON SUNDAY NIGHT. AN INCH OF
ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF DAYBREAK MONDAY. OVERNIGHT
LOWS ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD BE FAIRLY UNIFORM EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE WITH READINGS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S. THE CHILLY SPOT
WILL BE THE ALLEGHENIES WHERE 20S ARE ANTICIPATED. ADDING THE
GUSTY 25 TO 35 MPH WINDS LOWERS WIND CHILLS DOWN INTO THE TEENS.
PERIODS OF UPSLOPE DRIVEN SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE ALONG THE
ALLEGHENIES ON MONDAY. WITH FROUDE NUMBERS STAYING IN THE 1 TO
1.50 RANGE, THE RESULTANT CRITICAL FLOW WILL NOT FAVOR SPILLOVER
SNOW SHOWERS FARTHER DOWNSTREAM OF THE MOUNTAINS. ANOTHER INCH
OR TWO OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE WHICH WOULD YIELD STORM TOTALS AROUND
1 TO 3 INCHES. ON THE TEMPERATURE SIDE, A COLD BLUSTERY WIND
WILL CERTAINLY BE A SHOCK TO THE SYSTEM. MONDAY'S HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S (20S TO 30S FOR THE MOUNTAINS).
CORRESPONDING WIND CHILLS DROP INTO THE 30S TO 40S (SINGLE
DIGITS TO TEENS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS).
ANOTHER POTENT SHORTWAVE PIVOTS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO
MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT. THIS PROVIDES ANOTHER UPTICK OF WINDS,
PARTICULARLY ACROSS MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS. WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
GUST UP TO 35 TO 45 MPH WHICH COULD NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS. THIS
FAVORS A VERY COLD NIGHT ON MONDAY, ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE
REDUCED WIND CHILLS. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE 20S
ACROSS THE AREA WHICH WOULD YIELD FREEZE CONCERNS WHERE THE
GROWING SEASON CONTINUES (KING GEORGE, CALVERT, AND ST. MARY'S
COUNTIES). NIGHTTIME WIND CHILLS ACROSS THE ALLEGHENIES DROP
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR LOOKS TO PIVOT OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC ON
TUESDAY. NEAR RECORD COLD 850 HPA TEMPS AROUND -10 C ARE EXPECTED
WHICH TRANSLATES TO SURFACE TEMPERATURES ONLY TOPPING OUT IN THE 30S
TO AROUND 40 (20S IN THE MOUNTAINS). DRIER AIR WILL RUSH IN ON GUSTY
NORTHWEST BREEZES WHICH COULD ECLIPSE 30-40 MPH AT TIMES. THIS WILL
LEAD TO WIND CHILLS STAYING BELOW FREEZING MOST OF THE DAY, WITH
TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
MODERATING TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AHEAD OF A REINFORCING COLD FRONT. THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT
MAY SLOW OR HALT THE MODERATING TREND IN TEMPERATURES BRIEFLY, WITH
HIGH PRESSURE SET TO BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION FRIDAY.
AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
DESPITE ALL OF THE SHOWERS THAT HAVE MOVED ACROSS THE REGION,
OVERALL CEILINGS HAVE REMAINED ON THE HIGHER SIDE (6,000 TO
8,000 FEET). CURRENT SHOWERS HAVE NOW MOVED EAST OF THE
TERMINALS ALTHOUGH WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE APPROACHING STRATUS
DECK IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS ARE
CURRENTLY BEING OBSERVED WEST OF THE ALLEGHENIES. HOWEVER, DRIER
AIR SHOULD EVENTUALLY WIN OUT BEHIND THIS FRONT WITH VFR
CONDITIONS FOR TODAY/TONIGHT. WIND FIELDS MEANDER THROUGH THE
DAY WITH WIND SPEEDS STAYING 10 KNOTS OR LESS.
LIGHT WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS MOVE IN ON SUNDAY MORNING. AVIATION
GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME THREAT OF RESTRICTIONS, PARTICULARLY EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE. FOR NOW, WILL WITHHOLD LOWERING CEILINGS IN THE
TAFS, BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY GUSTS
TO AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS. A POWERFUL COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH
ON SUNDAY EVENING YIELDING A SHIFT TO GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. SUCH WINDS PICK UP ON MONDAY GIVEN AMPLE VERTICAL
MIXING. WHILE VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ON MONDAY, NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS SHOULD GUST TO AROUND 20 TO 25 KNOTS OR SO. WIND FIELDS
STAY SOMEWHAT ELEVATED INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS AN ADDITIONAL
DISTURBANCE ALOFT PUSHES THROUGH.
MAINLY VFR TUE-WED. W/NW FLOW GUSTING 25-35 KTS TUE BECOMES S/SW
WITH GUSTS 15-20 KTS WED.
MARINE
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT, SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO
GUST TO AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS OVER THE MORE SOUTHERN WATERS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE UNTIL 5 AM BEFORE DROPPING OFF.
THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING WHICH
YIELDS A SHIFT TO WESTERLY WINDS. THE WEAK NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM
KEEPS WINDS WELL BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. AS A SECONDARY FRONT
NEARS THE AREA TONIGHT, SOUTHEASTERLIES PICK UP IN STRENGTH ON
SUNDAY MORNING. THESE COULD NEAR 15 TO 20 KNOTS, PARTICULARLY IF
SOME CHANNELING EFFECTS OCCUR.
FOR THE REST OF SUNDAY, SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.
THIS MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A COUPLE RUMBLES OF THUNDER DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SOUTHERLY CHANNELING AHEAD OF THE STRONGER
BOUNDARY WOULD FAVOR NEAR 20 KNOT GUSTS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO
EARLY EVENING. THIS FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS ON SUNDAY EVENING
LEADING TO A QUICK SHIFT OVER TO WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. THESE
REMAIN GUSTY WHILE BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY INTO THE NIGHT. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE REQUIRED AT THAT POINT AND CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS LIKELY WAIT UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT
GIVEN A SECONDARY SURGE. NEAR GALE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WATERS.
LATEST MODEL TRENDS SHOW A BIT OF AN UPTICK IN THE WIND FORECAST FOR
TUESDAY, WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF COLD AIR ADVECTION.
GALES ARE POSSIBLE IN THIS SCENARIO. LIGHTER SPEEDS OUT OF THE W/NW
ARE LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT, BECOMING S/SW WEDNESDAY GUSTING 20-30
KT.
FIRE WEATHER
WHILE RAINFALL AMOUNTS LARGELY TOPPED OUT IN THE 0.10 TO 0.25
INCH RANGE, HIGHER AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED AROUND THE
ALLEGHENIES (0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES). THIS HAS PROVIDED A WETTING
RAIN FOR MANY. BEHIND A COLD FRONT TRACKING THROUGH EARLY THIS
MORNING, CONDITIONS DRY OUT BUT WITH LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED.
A STRONGER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE SUNDAY LEADING TO MORE
GUSTY WINDS, BUT MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER
TENTH TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE WITH THE
SECONDARY FRONT SUNDAY. ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL ALSO BE CONCERN
FOR THE ALLEGHENIES. EVEN WITH ALL THAT SAID, ADDITIONAL FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK
GIVEN GUSTY POST FRONTAL WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW. THE ONE
LIMITING FACTOR COULD BE THE TEMPERATURES AS THEY FALL INTO THE
40S DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
TIDE LEVELS HAVE REBOUNDED DUE TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AS
ANOMALIES HAVE RISEN INTO THE 0.25 TO 0.50 FOOT RANGE. THERE
WON'T BE TOO MUCH VARIATION OVER THE WEEKEND WITHOUT ANY STRONG
OFFSHORE FLOW TO PUSH WATER AWAY. SOME LOCATIONS MAY REACH
CAUTION/ACTION STAGE, BUT MINOR FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. BY
MONDAY, THE GUSTY POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT SHOULD LOWER WATER
LEVELS QUITE READILY.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...DHOF
NEAR TERM...AVS/BRO
SHORT TERM...BRO
LONG TERM...DHOF
AVIATION...BRO/DHOF
MARINE...BRO/DHOF
FIRE WEATHER...BRO/EST/ADS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BRO/ADS
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