429
FXUS61 KLWX 082003
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
303 PM EST SAT NOV 8 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WEAK COLD FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING
BEFORE LIFTING NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY MORNING. A STRONGER
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT, BRINGING
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AND MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS TO THE SOUTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER WEAK FRONT
TRACKS OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
LIGHT WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS
HIGH TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 60S TO LOW 70S. THOSE ALONG THE
ALLEGHENIES WILL STAY IN THE 50S. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH VISIBLE SATELLITE AS OF 3PM
SHOWING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TRACKING ACROSS THE AREA. OVERNIGHT
LOW TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE 40S FOR MOST WITH ONLY THOSE IN
THE METRO AREAS AND NEAR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY STAYING IN THE 50S.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASES EARLY MONDAY MORNING FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH DUE TO WARM AIR ADVECTION.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS SPLIT IN TWO WITH A POTENT COLD FRONT
PUSHING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT, WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL YIELD LIGHT PRECIPITATION, MAINLY
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE, SUNDAY MORNING. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES CAN
BE EXPECTED IN THE MORNING WITH A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WARM INTO 60S TO LOW 70S ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA WITH THOSE AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS STAYING IN THE 50S. AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH, PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE ALONG THE
FRONT. AS THE AFTERNOON LINE OF RAIN SHOWERS MOVES THROUGH, A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT DUE TO NON-ZERO
INSTABILITY. SPC HAS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER JUST TO
OUR SOUTH WITH THE FORECAST AREA IN A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM
OUTLOOK.
WINDS INCREASE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH WEST
WINDS GUSTING 15 TO 20 KNOTS. A COOL AND DRY AIRMASS MOVES IN
WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE 30S TO LOW 40S.
THOSE AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S.
WHILE PRIMARILY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA, THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE ALLEGHENIES WHERE UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WITH FROUDE NUMBERS
STAYING IN THE 1 TO 1.50 RANGE, THE RESULTANT CRITICAL FLOW WILL
NOT FAVOR SPILLOVER SNOW SHOWERS FARTHER DOWNSTREAM OF THE
MOUNTAINS. OVERALL, 1-3 INCHES IS EXPECTED WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY RISE INTO THE 40S AND 50S WITH THE
ALLEGHENIES STAYING IN THE 30S. BLUSTERY WINDS WILL YIELD WIND
CHILL VALUES STAYING IN THE 30S AND 40S DURING THE DAY BEFORE
DROPPING INTO TEENS AND 20S OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE
IN THE 20S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH HIGHEST ELEVATIONS
DROPPING INTO THE TEENS.
A POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE EAST COAST MONDAY
NIGHT, LEADING TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AREAWIDE.
WITH COLD TEMPERATURES IN PLACE, ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS
WILL BE SNOW. WHILE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND
LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED, CAN'T RULE OUT A SNOW
FLAKE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS ON MONDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
UPPER TROUGHING WILL PROGRESS OFFSHORE DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.
MEANWHILE, AT THE SURFACE, A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
TOWARD THE MOUTH OF THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
BECOMES CENTERED ALONG THE GULF COAST. SUCH A PRESSURE PATTERN WILL
LEAD TO GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. THOSE WINDS COULD
POTENTIALLY NEAR WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA IN THE MOUNTAINS. UPSLOPE
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE ALLEGHENIES WILL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN OVER THE
COURSE OF THE MORNING AS THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION LOWERS BEHIND THE
DEPARTING TROUGH. FURTHER EAST, DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED, ALONG
WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS. IT WILL BE A CHILLY DAY EVERYWHERE,
WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND 40S ELSEWHERE. THE WINDS
WILL MAKE IT FEEL MUCH COLDER, WITH WIND CHILLS HOLDING IN THE 20S
AND 30S THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY (TEENS IN THE MOUNTAINS).
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED CLIPPER LOW WILL TRACK TO OUR
NORTH ON WEDNESDAY. SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN TO OUR NORTH, SO CONTINUED
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM WILL HELP TO
MAINTAIN A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA, RESULTING IN
GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER, WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S FOR MOST (40S MOUNTAINS).
UPPER TROUGHING WILL LINGER OVER NEW ENGLAND/QUEBEC FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS UPPER RIDGING STARTS TO BUILD OVER THE CENTER OF THE
COUNTRY. AT THE SURFACE, LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR THE
GULF OF ST. LAWRENCE WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. SUCH A PATTERN WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES, WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S (40S MOUNTAINS) AND LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 30S.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING AS WEST
WINDS SHIFT TO SOUTHEAST DUE TO A FRONT TRACKING ACROSS THE
TERMINALS. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT OVERNIGHT, BLOWING AROUND 5 KNOTS
ACROSS ALL TERMINALS. MODEL GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT MVFR AND POSSIBLE
IFR SUNDAY MORNING DUE TO FOG AND PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO THE
AREA, MAINLY FOR THE METRO TERMINALS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR
IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST
SUNDAY, BLOWING 5 TO 10 KNOTS. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS THE TERMINALS SUNDAY EVENING WITH BRIEF
MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
A STRONG COLD FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT,
RESULTING IN A WIND SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY AND GUSTY WINDS IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT. NORTHWEST WINDS GUST 15 TO 20 KNOTS SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25 KNOTS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON MONDAY.
VFR, BUT WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. WINDS MAY GUST TO AROUND 25-35 KNOTS OUT OF THE WEST ON
TUESDAY, AND THEN AROUND 20-30 KNOTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST ON
WEDNESDAY.
MARINE
WINDS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGHOUT THIS
EVENING AND THE OVERNIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE
WATERS YIELDS WEST WINDS SHIFTING TO SOUTHERLY AND A SLIGHT INCREASE
IN WIND SPEEDS. SOUTHERLY WINDS NEAR SCA CRITERIA, GUSTING AROUND 15
KNOTS IN THE MORNING BEFORE WEAKENING IN THE AFTERNOON. A STRONG
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT, BRINGING
HIGH END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS ACROSS ALL WATERS.
WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH
ADVISORIES LIKELY NEEDED THROUGH MONDAY.
AT LEAST HIGH-END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS APPEAR LIKELY IN
WESTERLY FLOW ON TUESDAY, AND LOW-END GALE CONDITIONS MAY BE
POSSIBLE AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH-END SCA LEVEL
WINDS APPEAR LIKELY WITHIN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON WEDNESDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL YIELD GUSTY WINDS IN ITS WAKE TUESDAY
NEXT WEEK. COOL TEMPERATURES AND RECENT PRECIPITATION, ALBEIT
LIGHT, COULD INHIBIT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WITH HIGHS IN THE
40S.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
TIDAL ANOMALIES CONTINUE TO SLOWLY REBOUND WITH A FEW SENSITIVE
LOCATIONS (ANNAPOLIS AND STRAITS POINT) RISING INTO ACTION
STAGE DURING THE HIGHEST HIGH TIDE CYCLES THIS WEEKEND. NO
COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...AVS
NEAR TERM...AVS
SHORT TERM...AVS/BRO
LONG TERM...KJP
AVIATION...AVS/KJP
MARINE...AVS/KJP
FIRE WEATHER...AVS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AVS
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