142
FXUS61 KLWX 090900
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
400 AM EST SUN NOV 9 2025
SYNOPSIS
A BOUNDARY STALLED OVER NORTH CAROLINA WILL RETURN NORTHWARD AS
A WARM FRONT THIS MORNING. A STRONGER COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING BRINGING MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS
AND MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE SOUTH
MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT ZONE TRACKS OVER THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
THE 06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES YESTERDAY'S FRONTAL ZONE AS A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY OVER NORTH CAROLINA. ADDITIONALLY, A
SECONDARY FRONT HAS SETTLED JUST NORTH OF THE MASON-DIXON LINE
WHICH ESSENTIALLY PLACES THE LOCAL AREA IN BETWEEN THESE TWO
FEATURES. EARLY MORNING OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES VARY FROM THE 40S ALONG AND WEST OF U.S. 15, TO THE 50S
OFF TOWARD THE EAST. WIND FIELDS VARY BETWEEN SOUTHWESTERLY AND
SOUTHEASTERLY AS MID-LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM OVERHEAD.
THE GOES-19 NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS CHANNEL INDICATES FURTHER
INCREASES IN CLOUDS LIFTING UP FROM SOUTHWESTERN TO CENTRAL
VIRGINIA. THIS BROKEN TO OVERCAST DECK OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS IS
EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD AREAS EAST OF I-81 TOWARD DAYBREAK.
THE FRONTAL ZONE STALLED TO THE SOUTH IS FORECAST TO LIFT
POLEWARD AS A WARM FRONT TODAY. HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS FAVOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS AS THIS OCCURS. A FEW
SOLUTIONS SUPPORT MORE ROBUST CORES WHICH MAY EVEN YIELD A
COUPLE LIGHTNING STRIKES OVER SOUTHERN MARYLAND EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IN TIME
SPREADING SHOWERS INTO THE BALTIMORE METRO BY THE MID/LATE
MORNING BEFORE EXITING INTO NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND AROUND
LUNCHTIME.
UNDERNEATH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES, TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL BE
ABLE TO WARM QUITE READILY. FORECAST HIGHS GENERALLY RANGE FROM
THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S, WITH 50S TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS. ADDITIONAL AFTERNOON SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF A
POTENT COLD FRONT. WHILE ADEQUATE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE
PRESENT (60 TO 80 KNOTS), INSTABILITY IS MEAGER (50-100 J/KG)
WHICH SHOULD QUELL MOST SEVERE THREATS. HOWEVER, THE HIGH
SHEAR/VERY LOW CAPE SETUP COULD SUPPORT A BRIEF STRONGER STORM
IF ONE DEVELOPS. THE MENTIONED COLD FRONT IS SLATED TO REACH THE
I-95 CORRIDOR BY THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. IN ITS WAKE, SOME
RESIDUAL OVERRUNNING LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE AS A WEAK COASTAL
WAVE FORMS. THIS WOULD MAINLY IMPACT AREAS EAST OF U.S. 15
DURING THE EVENING TO EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO THE INCREASING WINDS AND THREAT FOR
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ALONG/WEST OF THE ALLEGHENIES.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS GUST TO AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH BEHIND THE
FRONT, WHILE BEING CLOSER TO 30 TO 40 MPH OVER MOUNTAIN LOCALES.
UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION UNFOLDS THROUGHOUT THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. ALTHOUGH IT WILL MAINLY BE RAIN SHOWERS TO
START OFF, COLD ADVECTION PATTERN QUICKLY COOLS OFF THE COLUMN
YIELDING A RAIN/SNOW MIX TO EVENTUALLY ALL SNOW THROUGH THE
NIGHT. DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY SNOW CAN ACCUMULATE, A QUICK
HALF INCH TO INCH ARE POSSIBLE BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. LOOKING AT
TEMPERATURES, FORECAST LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE, TO THE 20S OVER THE ALLEGHENIES. FOR
THESE HIGHER ELEVATIONS, THE GUSTY WINDS SHOULD EFFECTIVELY
LOWER WIND CHILLS INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
THE START OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK WILL FEATURE BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES AND BLUSTERY WINDS. DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. CONTINUED WEST-
NORTHWESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL FAVOR ADDITIONAL UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS ALONG/WEST OF THE ALLEGHENIES. ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WHICH WOULD CARRY STORM
TOTALS INTO THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE. THIS CLOSELY MATCHES MOST OF
THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SUITE. HOWEVER, A FEW OUTLYING
SOLUTIONS ARE NOTED WHICH INCLUDES THE 00Z RRFS WHICH FAVORS 4
TO 8 INCHES OVER WESTERN PENDLETON AND GRANT COUNTIES. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION WITH WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES
POSSIBLY BEING NEEDED. FARTHER DOWNSTREAM, NOT TOO MUCH IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH OFF THE TERRAIN GIVEN FROUDE NUMBERS NEAR 1.
AS MENTIONED MONDAY WILL MARK THE START OF THE ARRIVAL OF THE
COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE SEASON. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD MAINLY
BE IN THE 40S, WITH LOW 50S SOUTH OF I-66. ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS,
MOST LOCATIONS DO NOT ESCAPE THE UPPER 20S TO 30S. ADDING THE
WIND TO THE MIX LOWERS WIND CHILLS INTO THE TEENS.
WITHIN THE BROAD CYLONIC FLOW REGIME, A POTENT SHORTWAVE IS
SLATED TO SWING ACROSS THE MIDWEST TOWARD THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY
ON MONDAY. THIS STRENGTHENING WAVE THEN CROSSES THE VIRGINIA
CAPES BY MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT. MODEST ASCENT ACCOMPANYING THIS
IMPULSE MAY AID IN SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL IN THE VICINITY OF
SOUTHERN MARYLAND DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN NECK OF VIRGINIA. GIVEN
THIS OCCURS AFTER DARK, SOME LIGHT GRASSY ACCUMULATIONS CANNOT
BE RULED OUT. OTHERWISE, A COLD AND BLUSTERY PERIOD LIES AHEAD
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. FREEZE WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
REMAINING ZONES WHERE THE GROWING SEASON CONTINUES (KING GEORGE,
ST. MARY'S, AND CALVERT COUNTIES). THE COLDEST SPOT WILL BE
ALONG THE ALLEGHENIES WHERE WIDESPREAD TEENS ARE EXPECTED.
ADDING THE BLUSTERY WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS UP TO 35 TO 45 MPH,
WIND CHILLS FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.
TUESDAY LIKELY YIELDS THE COLDEST DAY OF THE PERIOD. THE
BLUSTERY MOUNTAIN WINDS NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH MIDDAY
TUESDAY WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 45 MPH. UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
ALONG THE ALLEGHENIES GRADUALLY COME TO AN END WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES AHEAD FOR THE REGION. FORECAST HIGHS ARE CONFINED TO THE
LOW/MID 40S, WITH UPPER 20S TO 30S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE
BLUSTERY WINDS LARGELY PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE TAPERING
OFF INTO THE EVENING AND NIGHT. WINDS DO REMAIN SOMEWHAT
ELEVATED INTO THE NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPPER
20S TO MID 30S (20S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS).
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS PROGRESSIVE THROUGH FRIDAY. AS
THE EARLY WEEK DEEP TROUGH LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST, A CLIPPER-
TYPE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH WEDNESDAY, AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THIS SYSTEM AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES WILL RESULT IN GUSTY WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS.
TEMPERATURES WILL RAPIDLY REBOUND COMPARED TO TUESDAY, WITH
HIGHS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BUT THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE
AND FORCING WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA. THE ON PLACE WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IS ALONG THE ALLEGHENIES. THERE
ISN'T MUCH COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THIS FRONT, WITH HIGHS THURSDAY
ONLY A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN WEDNESDAY. GUSTY WEST- NORTHWEST
FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE HOWEVER.
WINDS FINALLY RELAX FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST AND AN AMPLIFYING UPPER RIDGE SLIDES FROM THE PLAINS
TO THE GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SEASONABLE BUT
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES TOWARD THE WEEKEND AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
TOWARD THE AREA. CLOUDS MAY INCREASE WITH THIS WARM FRONT, BUT
PRECIPITATION APPEARS UNLIKELY THROUGH SATURDAY.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
INITIAL VFR CONDITIONS GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO SOME PASSING WARM
ADVECTION SHOWERS THIS MORNING. IF THESE MATERIALIZE, SOME NEAR
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE D.C. AND BALTIMORE
TERMINALS. ADDITIONAL SPOTTY SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM
OR TWO ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ALONG AND AHEAD OF A STRONG
COLD FRONT. PROB30 GROUPS CONTINUE FOR ALL TERMINALS THIS
EVENING FOR THIS ACTIVITY PLUS ANY LINGERING RAIN BEHIND THE
FRONT. AS THIS SYSTEM EXITS, THE POST-FRONTAL WEST-NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS BEGIN TO GUST TO AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS INTO THE NIGHT.
BLUSTERY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY ACROSS
THE REGION. ASIDE FROM A FEW SNOW SHOWERS NEAR SOUTHERN MARYLAND
LATE MONDAY, IT SHOULD BE A DRY PERIOD FOR THE AREA TERMINALS
WITH VFR CONDITIONS. NORTHWESTERLY GUSTS ON MONDAY PUSH INTO THE
20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE, WHILE INTENSIFYING TO 30 KNOTS BY TUESDAY
AS WINDS TURN MORE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE MAIN CONCERN
WILL BE WINDS AS A SERIES OF QUICK MOVING DRY FRONTS PUSHES THROUGH.
GUSTS OF 20-30 KT ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY, OUT OF THE WSW WEDNESDAY
AND WNW THURSDAY.
MARINE
INITIAL WIND FIELDS ARE CURRENTLY BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS,
GENERALLY AVERAGING AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. WINDS WILL MAINLY BE OUT OF THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST TODAY AHEAD OF A POTENT COLD FRONT. SOME UPTICK IN
WINDS COULD BRING GUSTS TO NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.
HOWEVER, THESE SHORT INSTANCES COULD BE HANDLED BY MARINE
WEATHER STATEMENTS. FURTHER, SOME PASSING SHOWERS MAY INCLUDE
AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER THIS MORNING.
AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS, WINDS SHIFT OVER TO WEST-
NORTHWESTERLY WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LIKELY BEING NEEDED
THIS EVENING INTO SUBSEQUENT DAYS. THE MORE SHELTERED WATERS MAY
SEE SOME BREAKS ON MONDAY, BUT HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE
LOOKING LIKELY FOR THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. AS A STRENGTHENING
TROUGH CROSSES BY TO THE SOUTH ON MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT, WINDS
FURTHER INCREASE. GALE CONDITIONS ARE LOOKING POSSIBLE MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY. GALE WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED
OVER THE MORE SOUTHERN WATERS FOR THIS INTENSIFICATION IN WINDS.
WESTERLY WINDS REMAIN BLUSTERY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AS A SERIES OF QUICK MOVING DRY FRONTS PUSHES THROUGH. WINDS OF 20-
30 KT ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY, OUT OF THE WSW WEDNESDAY AND WNW
THURSDAY. SOME OF THE INTERIOR WATERS MAY DROP BELOW CRITERIA FOR A
TIME WEDNESDAY NIGHT HOWEVER.
FIRE WEATHER
A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL YIELD GUSTY WINDS IN ITS WAKE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY. COOL TEMPERATURES AND RECENT PRECIPITATION,
ALBEIT LIGHT, COULD INHIBIT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WITH HIGHS IN
THE 40S. HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES MODERATE BY MID-WEEK, BUT WITH
CONTINUED BREEZY WINDS. THUS, WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE SITUATION AS WINDS FURTHER DRY OUT FUELS.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
TIDAL ANOMALIES CONTINUE TO SLOWLY REBOUND WITH A FEW SENSITIVE
LOCATIONS (ANNAPOLIS AND STRAITS POINT) RISING INTO ACTION
STAGE DURING THE HIGHEST HIGH TIDE CYCLES TODAY. NO COASTAL
FLOODING IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WATER LEVELS TO FALL EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS WINDS TURN MORE NORTWESTERLY BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...FREEZE WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
MDZ017-018.
VA...FREEZE WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
VAZ057.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
FOR ANZ533-534-537-543.
SYNOPSIS...BRO
NEAR TERM...BRO
SHORT TERM...BRO
LONG TERM...ADS
AVIATION...ADS/BRO
MARINE...ADS/BRO
FIRE WEATHER...LWX
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BRO
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