238
FXUS61 KLWX 100203
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
903 PM EST SUN NOV 9 2025
SYNOPSIS
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING BRINGING
MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES TO START THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
TO THE SOUTH TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT ZONE TRACKS
OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/
COLD FRONTAL ZONE IS LOCATED ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE AND
SOUTHERN MARYLAND THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN AN ENVIRONMENT WITH WEAK
INSTABILITY BUT STRONG SHEAR. SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS HAVE
DISPLAYED MESOCYCLONES ALOFT AND ARE PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD EXIT IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS,
BUT SOME SHOWERS COULD LINGER ALONG/EAST OF I-95 INTO THE NIGHT
AS AN ADDITIONAL WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDES ALONG THE SLOW
MOVING FRONTAL ZONE.
TO THE WEST, ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS, STRONG COLD ADVECTION HAS
STARTED, WITH THE SPRUCE KNOB WEATHER STATION ALREADY BELOW
FREEZING. ELSEWHERE, UPSLOPE RAIN SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TURN
TO SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT, WITH THE MOST IMPACTFUL CONDITIONS
TOWARD DAWN AS TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE 20S.
AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS, LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE
MID 30S TO LOWER 40S WITH A STEADY WNW WIND. THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS COULD GUST 30-40 MPH AT TIMES.
SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
LOW PRESSURE LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST MONDAY MORNING WILL
QUICKLY GATHER STRENGTH MONDAY STRENGTHENING THE COLD ADVECTION
PATTERN. AS MID-LEVEL TEMPS COOL DOWN RAPIDLY WITH APPROACH OF
DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, STEEPENING LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND STRENGTHENING FLOW WILL LEAD TO OFF AND ON SNOW SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE SQUALLS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS, WHICH MAY REACH AS FAR
EAST AS I-81. BLENDING WPC QPF WITH NBM AND SEVERAL CAMS YIELDS
0.3-0.4 INCHES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT AND WHEN COMBINED WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 20S AND TEENS YIELDS SNOW TOTALS OF 3
TO 6 INCHES ACROSS WESTERN GARRETT, WESTERN GRANT, AND WESTERN
PENDLETON COUNTIES. THUS, A WINTER WX ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED
FROM 4 AM MONDAY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MON NIGHT, ALTHOUGH THE HIGHEST
SNOWFALL RATES WILL LIKELY BE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH
THE STRONG VORT MAX PASSING WELL SOUTH OF OUR AREA, THE HIGHEST
SNOW TOTALS WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTHWEST VA AND WESTERN NC
AS OPPOSED TO OUR AREA.
AS TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY, RISING HEIGHTS
AND STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL QUICKLY END THE SNOW
SHOWER THREAT. THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE STRONGEST ON TUE ALONG
WITH HIGHER MIXING HEIGHTS SUPPORTING WIND GUSTS IN THE 35-40
MPH RANGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. A WIND ADVISORY MAY NEED TO
BE CONSIDERED FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THIS WHEN COMBINED
WITH TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO REACH 40 WILL RESULT IN WIND
CHILL VALUES IN THE 30S WITH TEENS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FREEZE
WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MONDAY NIGHT WHERE THE PROGRAM IS
STILL ACTIVE (CALVERT, ST. MARYS, KING GEORGE).
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED LOCALLY
DURING THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING CLIPPER LOW WILL TRACK TO OUR
NORTH DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. WHILE NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED LOCALLY, THIS SYSTEM WILL ACT TO MAINTAIN A STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION. AS A RESULT, WIND GUSTS OUT OF THE WEST
TO AROUND 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REACH INTO THE 50S AND LOWER 60S (40S
MOUNTAINS) BENEATH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
ARE FORECAST TO DROP TO AROUND 30 PERCENT AT PEAK HEATING ACROSS THE
VIRGINIA PIEDMONT AND SOUTHERN MARYLAND, WHICH WHEN COMBINED WITH
THE GUSTY WINDS COULD LEAD TO SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
AN UPPER LOW WILL LINGER TO OUR NORTHEAST THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND NEW ENGLAND WHILE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING SIMULTANEOUSLY BUILDS OVER THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY. THIS
WILL PLACE US IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT, WHICH WILL ENCOURAGE HIGH
PRESSURE TO GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AT THE SURFACE.
THIS WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES, WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 50S (40S TO NEAR 50 IN THE
MOUNTAINS) AND LOWS IN THE 30S.
AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS MOVED EAST OF THE TAF SITES.
LINGERING SHOWERS WILL EXIT THE AREA BY 09Z (IF NOT SOONER). ANY
LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD ALSO IMPROVE THE SECOND HALF OF THE
NIGHT. BLUSTERY NW WINDS MON AND TUE, STRONGEST ON TUE WITH
GUSTS UP TO 35 KT
VFR CONDITIONS AND WESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON BOTH WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. WINDS MAY GUST TO AROUND 20-30 KNOTS EITHER AFTERNOON.
MARINE
GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS WITH SMALL HAIL SHOULD EXIT THE WATERS BY
MIDNIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
WITH POSSIBLE GALES TUESDAY. GALE WATCH HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO ALL
WATERS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES APPEAR LIKELY WITHIN WESTERLY FLOW ON BOTH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL YIELD GUSTY WINDS IN ITS WAKE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY. COOL TEMPERATURES AND RECENT PRECIPITATION,
ALBEIT LIGHT, SHOULD INHIBIT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WITH HIGHS
IN THE 40S. HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES MODERATE BY MID-WEEK, BUT WITH
CONTINUED BREEZY WINDS. THUS, WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE SITUATION AS WINDS FURTHER DRY OUT FUELS.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST MONDAY NIGHT FOR
MDZ008.
GALE WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
FOR MDZ008.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 11 PM MONDAY TO 9 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
MDZ017-018.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST
MONDAY NIGHT FOR MDZ509.
VA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 11 PM MONDAY TO 9 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
VAZ057.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST
MONDAY NIGHT FOR WVZ501-505.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST MONDAY NIGHT FOR
ANZ530>534-537>543.
GALE WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
FOR ANZ530>534-537>543.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ535-536.
GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ535-536.
SYNOPSIS...LFR
NEAR TERM...ADS
SHORT TERM...LFR
LONG TERM...KJP
AVIATION...ADS/LFR/KJP
MARINE...ADS/LFR/KJP
FIRE WEATHER...LWX
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