993
FXUS61 KLWX 100900
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
400 AM EST MON NOV 10 2025
SYNOPSIS
BEHIND AN EXITING COLD FRONT, MUCH COLDER WEATHER PUSHES INTO
THE AREA WITH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE SOUTH TUESDAY EVENING INTO
WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
AND INTO MUCH OF THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
WHILE THE EARLIER COLD FRONT HAS SINCE MOVED OFF THE DELMARVA
PENINSULA, SOME LIGHT ANAFRONTAL SHOWERS PERSIST TO THE EAST OF
I-95. THIS IS ACCOMPANIED BY A MID-LEVEL DECK OF BROKEN TO
OVERCAST SKIES EXTENDING BACK TO THE BLUE RIDGE. THE INFLUENCE
OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE IS MOST NOTABLE IN THE FALLING DEW
POINTS WITH 6-HOUR FALLS OF AROUND 15 TO 20 DEGREES. THIS SURGE
OF DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD WHICH USHERS IN THE
COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE SEASON THUS FAR. TEMPERATURES HAVE
ALREADY FALLEN INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S ACROSS THE
ALLEGHENY FRONT. THIS AIR MASS HAS SET THE STAGES FOR THE WINTRY
PRECIPITATION EVENT THAT LIES AHEAD.
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM UNTIL
MIDNIGHT ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF GARRETT, PENDLETON, AND
GRANT COUNTIES. WITHIN THIS ADVISORY AREA, EXPECT AROUND 3 TO 6
INCHES OF SNOW TO ACCUMULATE THROUGH TONIGHT. ADDING A BLUSTERY
NORTHWESTERLY WIND INTO THE MIX WILL SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE
VISIBILITIES AT TIMES. MOUNTAIN TRAVELERS SHOULD PLAN FOR TRAVEL
DELAYS, SIGNIFICANT REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY, AND SLIPPERY ROAD
CONDITIONS.
THE INFLUENCE OF THE POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL BE FELT THROUGH A 30 TO 36 HOUR PERIOD OF SNOW
SHOWERS. SUCH ACTIVITY SHOULD COME IN MULTIPLE WAVES WITH
VARYING DEGREES OF INTENSITY WHICH INCLUDES SOME DRY TIME. ANY
MARGINAL THERMAL PROFILES SHOULD QUICKLY BE ERADICATED AS COLDER
AIR WORKS ITS WAY IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. BY MIDDAY, EXPECT
AROUND AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW TO HAVE FALLEN WITHIN THE ADVISORY
AREA. AS AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO DIG ACROSS THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY INTO SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA, MODELS HIGHLIGHT THE
POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS FOR THIS EVENING.
THE 00Z NAM SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER BEGINS TO LIGHT UP AT THIS
POINT WHICH IS WHEN 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW COULD FALL IN A 6-HOUR
PERIOD. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR OBSERVATIONAL AND MODEL TRENDS
FOR ANY NEED TO EXPAND OR UPGRADE CURRENT WINTER HEADLINES.
A COLD AND BLUSTERY DAY LIES AHEAD AS A NORTHWESTERLY COLD
ADVECTION REGIME DOMINATES. DEPENDING ON LOCATION, THE AREA WILL
SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 15 TO 25 DEGREES COOLER THAN THEY
WERE YESTERDAY/SUNDAY. THIS PLACES HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOW
50S, WITH HIGHER ELEVATIONS NOT ESCAPING THE 20S AND 30S. OF
COURSE THERE WILL BE THE GUSTY WIND 25 TO 35 MPH WIND TO
ACCOUNT FOR WHICH LOWERS WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES. THOSE IN THE
MOUNTAINS WILL SEE SUCH WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO
TEENS. SKIES ARE LIKELY TO CONSIST OF A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN AS
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO DRAW ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES
THROUGH THE REGION. EXPECT CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS TO DOMINATE
BACK ALONG THE ALLEGHENY FRONT.
WHILE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES DROP OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT, SOME
ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT. IF DEEMED
IMPACTFUL, CURRENT ADVISORIES COULD BE EXTENDED IN TIME.
ELSEWHERE, THE SHORTWAVE DIGGING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN MID-
ATLANTIC COULD SPREAD SOME LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS INTO FAR
SOUTHERN MARYLAND. HOWEVER, CHANCES ARE PRETTY LOW AT THIS POINT
BEING CAPPED AT AROUND 10 TO 20 PERCENT.
IT WILL BE A CHILLY NIGHT FOR ALL WITH THE GUSTY WEST-
NORTHWESTERLY WIND BLOWING. FORECAST LOWS ARE IN THE TEENS ALONG
THE ALLEGHENY FRONT, WITH LOW 20S ACROSS THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY
AND MID/UPPER 20S FOR THOSE FURTHER EAST. FREEZE WARNINGS ARE IN
PLACE FOR KING GEORGE, CALVERT, AND ST. MARY'S COUNTIES WHERE
THE GROWING SEASON CONTINUES. THE HIGH ELEVATION WINDS COULD
APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA AT TIMES WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 45 MPH.
THIS WOULD LOWER WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS,
WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO READINGS ALONG THE ALLEGHENY RIDGETOPS.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
TUESDAY PRESENTS ITSELF AS THE COLDEST DAY OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. A SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD/DRY AIR ENSUES AS THE
DEEPENING SHORTWAVE AND THE ATTENDENT LONGWAVE TROUGH PUSH OFF
THE EASTERN SEABOARD. RELATIVE TO EARLY/MID NOVEMBER
CLIMATOLOGY, 500-MB HEIGHT DEPARTURES RUN AROUND 2 TO 2.5 SIGMA
BELOW AVERAGE. OVERALL WIND FIELDS IN THE WAKE TURN MORE
WESTERLY WITH UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS GRADUALLY WINDING DOWN BY
MIDDAY TUESDAY. SUBSIDENCE IN THE COLUMN WILL FAVOR MORE
SUNSHINE IN THE FORECAST ALTHOUGH SOME CLOUDS LIKELY LINGER
ACROSS THE ALLEGHENIES. FORECAST HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 40S WILL
BE COMMONPLACE, WITH 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS. THIS COMES WITH
WESTERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 25 TO 35 MPH (35 TO 45 MPH ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS). NEAR ADVISORY CALIBER WINDS PERSIST OVER THE
ALLEGHENIES THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY MORNING AS WELL.
WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED IN NATURE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH COMES
WITH SOME ADDED NOCTURNAL CLOUD COVER. THIS KEEPS OVERNIGHT
LOWS UP A BIT RELATIVE TO THE PREVIOUS NIGHT. THE LATEST
FORECAST CALLS FOR UPPER 20S TO MID 30S (LOW/MID 20S BACK OVER THE
ALLEGHENY MOUNTAINS AND THE RIVER VALLEYS).
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH EXITING OFFSHORE, HEIGHTS RISE IN EARNEST.
24-HOUR MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE ON THE ORDER OF 20 TO 25 DM (534
DM TO 558 DM). THIS COUPLED WITH A RETURN LOW-LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND WILL AID IN AMPLE WARMING OF THE TROPOSPHERE.
FORECAST HIGHS REBOUND BY AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES WHICH RAISES
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. WITH
SNOWPACK OVER THE ALLEGHENY FRONT, TEMPERATURES WILL BE CONFINED
TO THE 30S TO LOW 40S.
HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AT
THE SAME TIME, A SWIFT MOVING SHORTWAVE DRIVES A FRONTAL SYSTEM
THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE SECOND HALF OF WEDNESDAY.
WHILE DRY IN NATURE, THE ONLY NOTABLE CHANGE WILL BE THE SHIFT
TO WESTERLY WINDS THAT BECOME BREEZIER IN NATURE. WIND FIELDS
STAY ELEVATED INTO THE NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW
40S, WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS FOR THOSE IN THE ALLEGHENIES.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK
COLD FRONT. THERE WON'T BE STRONG COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT,
BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE PUSHED BACK BELOW NORMAL.
WINDS FINALLY RELAX FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST
AND AN AMPLIFYING UPPER RIDGE SLIDES EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS.
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, THE HIGH SLIDES TO THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES WHILE HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC FORCES A FRONTAL ZONE
SOUTHWARD THAT STALLS AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE PLAINS. THIS
MAY RESULT IN A TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION, WHILE NOT
EXTREME, COULD RESULT IN A DIFFERENCE OF AROUND 8 DEGREES OR SO ON
HIGHS. MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY, BUT DISTURBANCES RIDING ALONG
THIS FRONTAL ZONE IN NORTHWEST FLOW COULD RESULT IN SOME LIGHT
UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION.
THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL LIKELY BE PUSHING ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY ON SUNDAY. IT'S UNCERTAIN IF ANY PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE WARM FRONTAL ZONE, OR IF MOST OF THE RAIN HOLDS OFF UNTIL
MONDAY. FOR NOW THE FORECAST CARRIES A CHANCE OF RAIN. LIKEWISE,
THERE SOME UNCERTAINTY IF THE BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH, BUT TEMPERATURES
SHOULDN'T STRAY TOO FAR FROM NORMAL.
AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A DRY PATTERN LIES AHEAD FOR THE AREA TERMINALS IN THE WAKE OF A
STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY RULE THE
PERIOD THROUGH MID-WEEK OR LONGER. THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE
GUSTY WINDS OVERSPREADING THE ENTIRE MID-ATLANTIC REGION.
NORTHWESTERLIES GUST TO AROUND 25 TO 30 KNOTS TODAY WITH A 5 TO
10 KNOT DROP OFF INTO TONIGHT.
AS THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES OVERHEAD, WINDS SHIFT TO WESTERLY ON
TUESDAY AND REMAIN BLUSTERY IN NATURE. DAYTIME GUSTS MIGHT BE A
TAD HIGHER WHILE RISING INTO THE 30 TO 35 KNOT RANGE. A RETURN
FLOW ENSUES BY MID-WEEK WHICH YIELDS A MAINLY SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
FOR WEDNESDAY. GUSTS UP TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS ARE LOOKING POSSIBLE
WITH DECREASING WINDS INTO THE NIGHT.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE WINDS
BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT, WITH WESTERLY GUSTS OF 20-25 KT. DRY
WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS ARE FORECAST FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE.
MARINE
A MULTI-DAY PERIOD OF HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE LOOKING
LIKELY FOR THE WEEK. BEHIND A POTENT COLD FRONT, A GUSTY
NORTHWESTERLY WIND UP TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT
THE DAY. CONSEQUENTLY, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN PLACE FOR
SUCH WINDS BEFORE GALE CONDITIONS MOVE INTO THE PICTURE TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.
A SHARPENING TROUGH SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY WHICH
YIELDS A SECONDARY SURGE IN WINDS. GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN
HOISTED UP FOR THE EXPECTED 35 KNOT WEST-NORTHWESTERLY GUSTS.
GIVEN A HEALTHY WIND FIELD ALOFT, OCCASIONAL 40 KNOT GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE MORE SOUTHERN WATERS. WINDS EVENTUALLY SWITCH
OVER TO SOUTHWESTERLY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL AGAIN BE NEEDED DURING THIS PERIOD WITH GUSTS UP
TO 25 KNOTS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF
A WEAK COLD FRONT. WESTERLY GUSTS OF 20-25 KT ARE EXPECTED. WINDS
WILL FINALLY WEAKEN FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD.
FIRE WEATHER
BEHIND A POTENT COLD FRONT, GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR IN ITS WAKE
THROUGH TUESDAY. COOL TEMPERATURES AND RECENT PRECIPITATION,
ALBEIT LIGHT, SHOULD INHIBIT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WITH HIGHS IN
THE 40S. HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES MODERATE BY MID-WEEK, BUT WITH
CONTINUED BREEZY WINDS. THUS, WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE SITUATION AS WINDS FURTHER DRY OUT FUELS, PARTICULARLY IN
LIGHT OF A DRY WEEK AHEAD AND LOW DAYTIME RELATIVE HUMIDITIES.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MDZ008.
GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
MDZ008.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
MDZ017-018.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MDZ509.
VA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
VAZ057.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR WVZ501-
505.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ530>534-
537>543.
GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
ANZ530>534-537>543.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ535-536.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ535-536.
SYNOPSIS...BRO
NEAR TERM...BRO
SHORT TERM...BRO
LONG TERM...ADS
AVIATION...ADS/BRO
MARINE...ADS/BRO
FIRE WEATHER...BRO
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