892
FXUS61 KLWX 110104
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
804 PM EST MON NOV 10 2025
SYNOPSIS
BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS TO THE SOUTH TUESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/
INTERMITTENT SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS WITH A FEW ROGUE CLOUD
FLASHES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ALONG AND WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT
IN THE ONGOING WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. HEAVIER ELEMENTS/BURSTS
REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE EVENING BEFORE INSTABILITY IN THE
DGZ BEGINS TO WANE, BUT WINDS WILL KICK UP BY THEN. A FEW
FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS MAY DRIFT TOWARD THE I-81 CORRIDOR
BEFORE DRYING UP.
UPPER LOW NEAR THE KY/TN BORDER WILL CONTINUE TO DIG EAST
SOUTHEAST NEXT 24 HRS MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN VA AND NORTHERN NC
TONIGHT. THIS WILL SUPPORT WINTER-LIKE TEMPERATURES AND
NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL SQUALLS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
THIS EVENING WHERE 2-5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. THE SNOW WILL BEGIN
TO DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT AS INVERSION HEIGHTS LOWER. IT WILL
REMAIN BRISK TONIGHT WITH WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE 20S AND
SINGLE DIGITS IN THE MOUNTAINS. WINDS WILL REMAIN BRISK TONIGHT
WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 10 TO 20 MPH.
SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST TUE WITH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
STRENGTHENING. VERY BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH GUSTS
IN THE 35 TO 40 MPH RANGE QUITE COMMON AND TEMPERATURES ONLY IN
THE LOW 40S. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL VALUES HOLDING
STEADY IN THE MID 30S ALL DAY, COLDER IN THE MOUNTAINS.
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SETTLES ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA TUE NIGHT
WITH RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NORTH INTO OUR AREA. A WARM-UP OCCURS
WEDNESDAY AS WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS DEVELOP. NOT AS WINDY WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. THIS MAY RESULT IN A FIRE DANGER THREAT
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK AS A COLD FRONT REMAINS STALLED OVER THE SOUTHEAST. A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING NORTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL
LEAD TO A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC. THIS
WILL YIELD INCREASED NORTHWEST WINDS ON THURSDAY WITH GUSTS 15
TO 20 KNOTS EXPECTED. WEST WINDS DIMINISH ON FRIDAY, BLOWING
BETWEEN 5 TO 10 KNOTS AND BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.
OTHERWISE, DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK
WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S EACH DAY.
HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL STAY IN THE 40S.
FOR THE WEEKEND, PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN TO THE ALLEGHENIES AS
A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH JUST TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ALONG THE WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE ALLEGHENIES SATURDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS BRIEFLY DRY OUT
SATURDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE APPROACHING WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH
THE AREA, RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CHANCES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY
RISING INTO THE 60S FOR MOST. HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL STAY IN THE
50S. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 30S AND 40S SATURDAY
NIGHT BEFORE WARMING TO THE 40S AND 50S FOR SUNDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
NW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20 KT TONIGHT WITH SPORADIC SLIGHTLY
HIGHER GUSTS LATE, THEN STRENGTHENING AGAIN ON TUE TO 35 KT
FROM THE WNW. WINDS BECOME MORE WESTERLY WED WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVERHEAD. NORTHWEST WINDS ON THURSDAY
GUST 15 TO 20 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT ON FRIDAY.
MARINE
GALE WARNING IN EFFECT LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUE. GUSTS UP TO 30
KT THROUGH THIS EVENING, THEN INCREASING LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN WATERS AND EXPANDING ELSEWHERE TO 35-38 KT TUE. SCA
CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY BUT FROM A MORE WESTERLY
DIRECTION.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS
NORTHWEST WINDS GUST 15 TO 20 KNOTS OVER THE WATERS. WINDS DIMINISH
THURSDAY EVENING AND WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGHOUT THE
DAY ON FRIDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
DESPITE STRONG GUSTY WINDS THROUGH TUESDAY, MUCH COLDER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL MITIGATE THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT. A
WARM-UP WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY COMBINED WITH GUSTY WESTERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE THE FIRE DANGER. WINDS DIMINISH BY FRIDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN, LESSENING THE FIRE RISK.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...FREEZE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
MDZ017-018.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MDZ509.
VA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
VAZ057.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR WVZ501-505.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ530>534-
537>543.
GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
ANZ530>534-537>543.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ535-536.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ535-536.
SYNOPSIS...LFR/DHOF
NEAR TERM...LFR/DHOF
SHORT TERM...LFR/BRO/KLW/DHOF
LONG TERM...AVS
AVIATION...AVS/LFR/DHOF
MARINE...AVS/LFR/DHOF
FIRE WEATHER...LWX
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