166
FXUS61 KLWX 110859
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
359 AM EST TUE NOV 11 2025
SYNOPSIS
BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AS A STRONG UPPER TROUGH
PASSES OVERHEAD. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE SOUTH THIS EVENING
INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS THE
REGION WEDNESDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK AND INTO MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. A WARM FRONT MOVES
THROUGH ON SUNDAY LEADING TO THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT SHOT OF COLD AIR THIS SEASON HAS OVERSPREAD
THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. CHARACTERIZED BY 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES AROUND
516 DM, THIS MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL FAVOR ANOTHER DAY OF WELL
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TODAY. AFTER THE INITIAL SHORTWAVES PASSED
THROUGH, ADDITIONAL REINFORCEMENTS ARE EVIDENT ALOFT AS THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH AXIS PASSES OVERHEAD. 850-MB TEMPERATURES ARE FURTHER DROPPING
DOWN INTO THE -8 TO -10C RANGE THIS MORNING. THIS WILL SET THE STAGES
FOR AN EVEN COLDER DAY ACROSS THE REGION.
OBSERVATIONS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOW THE NEXT SURGE OF COLD AIR IS
ALREADY UNDERWAY AS WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS HAVE TURNED MORE GUSTY
IN NATURE. MANY LOCATIONS ARE REPORTING 20 TO 30 MPH WIND GUSTS ALONG
WITH DEW POINTS FALLING INTO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS. THIS
COLD ADVECTION PATTERN HAS LARGELY ALLOWED FOR A UNIFORM TEMPERATURE
MAP WITH MOST IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. ALONG THE ALLEGHENIES,
CONDITIONS ARE MUCH COLDER WITH TEMPERATURES CONFINED TO THE TEENS.
THIS ALSO COMES WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WHICH WILL HAVE
PERSISTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES
CONTINUE UNTIL 7 AM ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF GARRETT, GRANT,
AND PENDLETON COUNTIES. ANOTHER INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION IS
POSSIBLE BEFORE THE EVENT WINDS DOWN LATER THIS MORNING.
IT WILL BE A CHILLY START TO THE DAY WITH SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES
LIKELY ACROSS MOST, IF NOT ALL, OF THE REGION. FREEZE WARNINGS
ACROSS KING GEORGE, ST. MARY'S, AND CALVERT COUNTIES COME TO AN END
AT 9 AM AS TEMPERATURES SLOWLY REBOUND ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK. NO
FREEZE PRODUCTS ARE NECESSARY ELSEWHERE AS THE GROWING SEASON HAS
ALREADY ENDED.
BLUSTERY WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DOMINATE THE DAY WHICH ALLOWS
THAT REINFORCING SHOT OF MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR TO MOVE THROUGH. THE
HIGHEST WINDS SHOULD BE ALONG THE ALLEGHENY FRONT WHERE WIND ADVISORIES
HAVE BEEN HOISTED UP FROM 7 AM UNTIL 3 PM. GUSTS UP TO 45 TO 50
MPH ARE LIKELY DURING THAT TIMEFRAME, PARTICULARLY ALONG THE ALLEGHENY
RIDGES. ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS, EXPECT GUSTS TO AROUND 30 TO
40 MPH. WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S, THIS CARRIES AFTERNOON
WIND CHILLS DOWN INTO THE 30S. OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS, WIND CHILLS
WILL BE CONFINED TO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. DESPITE THE CHILLY
FEEL TO THE AIR, EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AIDED BY SUBSIDENCE BEHIND
THE TROUGH.
AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE SOUTHERN U.S., WINDS BEGIN TO SHIFT
FROM WESTERLY OVER TO SOUTHWESTERLY LATER TONIGHT. THIS DOES COME
WITH FURTHER SURGES IN WIND FIELDS ALONG WITH PLENTY OF MID TO HIGH-
LEVEL CLOUDS. THE COMBINATION OF THESE WINDS AND CLOUDS WILL HELP
RAISE OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S (20S OVER
THE MOUNTAINS). FORECAST WIND GUSTS NEAR WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA OVERNIGHT
SO THIS WILL NEED BE MONITORED FOR FUTURE WIND PRODUCTS. THIS AGAIN
LOWERS WIND CHILLS INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MID-TEENS.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
MID/UPPER HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE IN EARNEST BEHIND THE EARLIER POTENT
TROUGH. 24-HOUR HEIGHT RISES WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 20 TO 25 DM (528
DM TO 550 DM) WHICH IS ACCOMPANIED BY UNIDIRECTIONAL WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS. THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME HELPS RAISE TEMPERATURES BY AROUND
10 TO 15 DEGREES RELATIVE TO TODAY'S HIGHS. THE RETURN TO TEMPERATURES
IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S IS RIGHT NEAR AVERAGE FOR MID-NOVEMBER. MEANWHILE,
MOUNTAIN TEMPERATURES WILL STAY IN THE 30S TO 40S, COOLEST WHERE
SNOWPACK REMAINS. AS MENTIONED EARLIER, WINDS AGAIN WILL BE QUITE
BREEZY IN NATURE, PARTICULARLY ALONG THE ALLEGHENY FRONT WHERE GUSTS
UP TO 40 TO 45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. WITHIN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS,
EXPECT WESTERLY WINDS WHICH GUST TO AROUND 25 TO 35 MPH. WHILE
THE ALLEGHENIES AND THOSE NORTH OF I-70 CAN EXPECT ADDED CLOUD
COVER, OTHERS SHOULD SEE MORE SUNSHINE ON WEDNESDAY.
ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF A BROAD RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE U.S., A CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM RACES TOWARD THE LOCAL AREA
WEDNESDAY EVENING. HOWEVER, IT WILL BE A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE
WITH FURTHER UPTICKS IN WINDS BEHIND THIS SYSTEM. WEDNESDAY
NIGHT'S LOW ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO 30S, WITH LOW
40S AROUND D.C. AND BALTIMORE.
THE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY. THE
POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT MAINTAINS A WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE REGIME
WHICH SUPPORTS RATHER SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. EXPECT MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S, WITH MID 30S TO 40S IN THE
MOUNTAINS. BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS UP TO 20 TO 30 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE, WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
HEADING INTO THE NIGHT, LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO 30S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OUT ON FRIDAY WITH A DEEP TROUGH
ALONG THE WEST COAST, BROAD UPPER RIDGING OVER THE CENTER OF THE
CONUS, AND THEN TROUGHING AGAIN MUCH FURTHER EAST OVER NEW ENGLAND.
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD FROM NEAR HUDSON
BAY TO THE GULF COAST, PROVIDING US WITH QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS
LOCALLY. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED, WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S (UPPER
40S TO LOW 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS).
THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD ON
SATURDAY, PROVIDING ANOTHER DAY OF QUIET WEATHER. HIGH CLOUDS WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY AND HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TO REACH INTO THE 50S AND LOWER 60S.
OVER THE COURSE OF THE WEEKEND, THE TROUGH THAT WAS INITIALLY OVER
THE WEST COAST WILL FRACTURE AS IT PROGRESSES EASTWARD, LEAVING AN
INTENSE CUTOFF UPPER LOW DEPOSITED OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL US, WHILE
A MORE PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVES EASTWARD TOWARD
THE GREAT LAKES. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND
DEEPEN AHEAD OF THAT SHORTWAVE, AND WILL EVENTUALLY TRACK OFF TO OUR
NORTH. WHILE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT THIS GENERAL
PATTERN WILL PLAY OUT, THERE ARE SUBSTANTIAL DIFFERENCES REGARDING
THE TRACK AND ULTIMATE STRENGTH OF THIS NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM. AS A
RESULT, THERE'S ALSO CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING OUR SENSIBLE
WEATHER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THERE
MAY BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS EITHER DAY AS THAT SYSTEM PASSES TO OUR
NORTH. THEY ALSO SHOW A WIDE RANGE IN POSSIBLE TEMPERATURES DURING
THAT TIME PERIOD, WHICH IS LIKELY TIED TO THE TRACK OF THAT LOW.
AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH A DRY FORECAST
AHEAD. ANY SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE ALLEGHENIES THIS
MORNING. OTHERWISE, THE MAIN STORY AT THE TAF SITES WILL BE THE
ENHANCED WIND FIELDS. AS A STRONG UPPER TROUGH PASSES OVERHEAD
AND OFF TO THE EAST, INCREASINGLY WESTERLY WINDS WILL GUST UP TO
30 TO 35 KNOTS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. THESE SHOULD
GRADUALLY DROP OFF TO AROUND 15 TO 25 KNOTS THIS EVENING BEFORE
FURTHER DECREASING INTO TONIGHT.
AHEAD OF A PROGRESSIVE FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT TRACKS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING, WINDS TURN SOUTHWESTERLY BEFORE SHIFTING TO
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THIS FRONT. THIS MAINTAINS A BREEZY
PERIOD WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS TO AROUND 20 TO 30 KNOTS. WESTERLY WINDS
REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELEVATED INTO THURSDAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS
OR SO.
VFR CONDITIONS AND NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON BOTH FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY.
MARINE
AS A STRONG UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD AND EVENTUALLY PUSHES
OFFSHORE, WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TURN MORE BLUSTERY IN NATURE.
GALE WARNINGS ARE IN PLACE FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING. WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED INTO THIS EVENING AND NIGHT WHICH
WILL REQUIRE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE AREA WATERS.
WINDS SHIFT OVER TO SOUTHWESTERLY ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A
PROGRESSIVE CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM. WHILE DRY IN NATURE, THIS WILL
BRING ANOTHER SURGE OF WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND IT. AS A RESULT,
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR BOTH WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY AS GUSTS RISE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS, PERHAPS 30 KNOTS
CLOSER TO THE SOUTHERN-MOST WATERS.
SUB-SCA LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WATERS ON
BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
DESPITE STRONG GUSTY WINDS TODAY, MUCH COLDER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL MITIGATE THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT. A WARM-UP
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY COMBINED WITH GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE THE FIRE WEATHER DANGER, PARTICULARLY IN LIGHT OF THE
LOW DAYTIME RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND MODERATE NIGHTTIME
RECOVERIES. WINDS DIMINISH BY FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN, LESSENING THE FIRE WEATHER RISK. THE PATTERN REMAINS DRY
THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THIS WEEKEND BEFORE RAINFALL
CHANCES RETURN TO THE AREA BY SUNDAY.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ008.
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MDZ017-018.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR MDZ501-509-510.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MDZ509.
VA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VAZ057.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR VAZ503.
WV...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR WVZ501-503-505.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ501-
505.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ530>534-
537>543.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ535-536.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ535-536.
SYNOPSIS...BRO
NEAR TERM...BRO
SHORT TERM...BRO
LONG TERM...KJP
AVIATION...BRO/KJP
MARINE...BRO/KJP
FIRE WEATHER...BRO
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