392
FXUS61 KLWX 111516
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1016 AM EST TUE NOV 11 2025
SYNOPSIS
BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON AS A STRONG
UPPER TROUGH PASSES OVERHEAD. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE SOUTH
THIS EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM TRACKS
ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. A WARM FRONT
MOVES THROUGH ON SUNDAY LEADING TO THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
WITH THE VERY COLD AIR CONTINUING TO BE USHERED IN ON A GUSTY
WEST-NORTHWEST TO WESTERLY WIND, THIS AFTERNOON'S TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WELL BELOW AVERAGE. WINDS WILL GUST 20 TO 30 MPH
FREQUENTLY WITH FALLING DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES INDICATING DRY AIR
MOVING INTO THE REGION. WINDS REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO ALLOW OUR
WIND ADVISORY TO CONTINUE IN THE ALLEGHENIES THROUGH MID-
AFTERNOON UNTIL 3PM. GUSTS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS COULD REACH 45
TO 50 MPH. WINDS WILL BE LESS GUSTY AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AND
AREAS FARTHER TO THE EAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S WITH
WIND CHILLS DOWN INTO THE 30S. OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS, WIND
CHILLS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. DESPITE
THE CHILLY FEEL TO THE AIR, EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AIDED BY
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE TROUGH.
AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE SOUTHERN U.S., WINDS BEGIN TO
SHIFT FROM WESTERLY OVER TO SOUTHWESTERLY LATER TONIGHT. THIS
DOES COME WITH FURTHER SURGES IN WIND FIELDS ALONG WITH PLENTY
OF MID TO HIGH- LEVEL CLOUDS. THE COMBINATION OF THESE WINDS AND
CLOUDS WILL HELP RAISE OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER
20S TO MID 30S (20S OVER THE MOUNTAINS). FORECAST WIND GUSTS
NEAR WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA OVERNIGHT SO THIS WILL NEED BE
MONITORED FOR FUTURE WIND PRODUCTS. THIS AGAIN LOWERS WIND
CHILLS INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MID-TEENS.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MID/UPPER HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE IN EARNEST BEHIND THE EARLIER
POTENT TROUGH. 24-HOUR HEIGHT RISES WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 20
TO 25 DM (528 DM TO 550 DM) WHICH IS ACCOMPANIED BY
UNIDIRECTIONAL WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. THE WARM ADVECTION
REGIME HELPS RAISE TEMPERATURES BY AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES
RELATIVE TO TODAY'S HIGHS. THE RETURN TO TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S
TO LOW 60S IS RIGHT NEAR AVERAGE FOR MID-NOVEMBER. MEANWHILE,
MOUNTAIN TEMPERATURES WILL STAY IN THE 30S TO 40S, COOLEST WHERE
SNOWPACK REMAINS. AS MENTIONED EARLIER, WINDS AGAIN WILL BE
QUITE BREEZY IN NATURE, PARTICULARLY ALONG THE ALLEGHENY FRONT
WHERE GUSTS UP TO 40 TO 45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. WITHIN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS, EXPECT WESTERLY WINDS WHICH GUST TO AROUND 25 TO 35
MPH. WHILE THE ALLEGHENIES AND THOSE NORTH OF I-70 CAN EXPECT
ADDED CLOUD COVER, OTHERS SHOULD SEE MORE SUNSHINE ON WEDNESDAY.
ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF A BROAD RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE U.S., A CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM RACES TOWARD THE LOCAL AREA
WEDNESDAY EVENING. HOWEVER, IT WILL BE A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE
WITH FURTHER UPTICKS IN WINDS BEHIND THIS SYSTEM. WEDNESDAY
NIGHT'S LOW ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO 30S, WITH LOW
40S AROUND D.C. AND BALTIMORE.
THE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY. THE
POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT MAINTAINS A WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE REGIME
WHICH SUPPORTS RATHER SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. EXPECT MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S, WITH MID 30S TO 40S IN THE
MOUNTAINS. BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS UP TO 20 TO 30 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE, WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
HEADING INTO THE NIGHT, LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO 30S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OUT ON FRIDAY WITH A DEEP TROUGH
ALONG THE WEST COAST, BROAD UPPER RIDGING OVER THE CENTER OF THE
CONUS, AND THEN TROUGHING AGAIN MUCH FURTHER EAST OVER NEW ENGLAND.
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD FROM NEAR HUDSON
BAY TO THE GULF COAST, PROVIDING US WITH QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS
LOCALLY. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED, WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S (UPPER
40S TO LOW 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS).
THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD ON
SATURDAY, PROVIDING ANOTHER DAY OF QUIET WEATHER. HIGH CLOUDS WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY AND HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TO REACH INTO THE 50S AND LOWER 60S.
OVER THE COURSE OF THE WEEKEND, THE TROUGH THAT WAS INITIALLY OVER
THE WEST COAST WILL FRACTURE AS IT PROGRESSES EASTWARD, LEAVING AN
INTENSE CUTOFF UPPER LOW DEPOSITED OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL US, WHILE
A MORE PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVES EASTWARD TOWARD
THE GREAT LAKES. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND
DEEPEN AHEAD OF THAT SHORTWAVE, AND WILL EVENTUALLY TRACK OFF TO OUR
NORTH. WHILE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT THIS GENERAL
PATTERN WILL PLAY OUT, THERE ARE SUBSTANTIAL DIFFERENCES REGARDING
THE TRACK AND ULTIMATE STRENGTH OF THIS NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM. AS A
RESULT, THERE'S ALSO CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING OUR SENSIBLE
WEATHER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THERE
MAY BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS EITHER DAY AS THAT SYSTEM PASSES TO OUR
NORTH. THEY ALSO SHOW A WIDE RANGE IN POSSIBLE TEMPERATURES DURING
THAT TIME PERIOD, WHICH IS LIKELY TIED TO THE TRACK OF THAT LOW.
AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH A DRY FORECAST
AHEAD. THE MAIN STORY AT THE TAF SITES WILL BE THE ENHANCED
WIND FIELDS. AS A STRONG UPPER TROUGH PASSES OVERHEAD AND OFF TO
THE EAST, INCREASINGLY WESTERLY WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 30 TO 35
KNOTS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. THESE SHOULD GRADUALLY DROP
OFF TO AROUND 15 TO 25 KNOTS THIS EVENING BEFORE FURTHER
DECREASING INTO TONIGHT.
AHEAD OF A PROGRESSIVE FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT TRACKS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING, WINDS TURN SOUTHWESTERLY BEFORE SHIFTING TO
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THIS FRONT. THIS MAINTAINS A BREEZY
PERIOD WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS TO AROUND 20 TO 30 KNOTS. WESTERLY WINDS
REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELEVATED INTO THURSDAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS
OR SO.
VFR CONDITIONS AND NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON BOTH FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY.
MARINE
AS A STRONG UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD AND EVENTUALLY PUSHES
OFFSHORE, WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TURN MORE BLUSTERY IN NATURE.
GALE WARNINGS ARE IN PLACE FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING. WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED INTO THIS EVENING AND NIGHT WHICH
WILL REQUIRE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE AREA WATERS.
WINDS SHIFT OVER TO SOUTHWESTERLY ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A
PROGRESSIVE CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM. WHILE DRY IN NATURE, THIS WILL
BRING ANOTHER SURGE OF WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND IT. AS A RESULT,
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR BOTH WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY AS GUSTS RISE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS, PERHAPS 30 KNOTS
CLOSER TO THE SOUTHERN-MOST WATERS.
SUB-SCA LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WATERS ON
BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
DESPITE STRONG GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON, MUCH COLDER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL MITIGATE THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT. A
WARM-UP WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY COMBINED WITH GUSTY WESTERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE THE FIRE WEATHER DANGER, PARTICULARLY IN
LIGHT OF THE LOW DAYTIME RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND MODERATE
NIGHTTIME RECOVERIES. WINDS DIMINISH BY FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN, LESSENING THE FIRE WEATHER RISK. THE PATTERN REMAINS
DRY THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THIS WEEKEND BEFORE
RAINFALL CHANCES RETURN TO THE AREA BY SUNDAY.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ008.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MDZ501-509-510.
VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR VAZ503.
WV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WVZ501-503-505.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ530>543.
SYNOPSIS...BRO
NEAR TERM...BRO/KLW
SHORT TERM...BRO
LONG TERM...KJP
AVIATION...BRO/KLW/KJP
MARINE...BRO/KLW/KJP
FIRE WEATHER...BRO
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