134
FXUS61 KLWX 120153
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
853 PM EST TUE NOV 11 2025
SYNOPSIS
WINDS WILL REMAIN QUITE GUSTY THROUGH THIS EVENING AS AN AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE INTERACTS WITH DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS. THE
HIGH WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
BEFORE THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO
MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. A WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON SUNDAY
LEADING TO THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/
AS THE SURFACE TROUGH PIVOTS EASTWARD, GUIDANCE INDICATES A
BURST OF WIND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ALLEGHENIES DUE TO
DOWNSLOPING. AS A RESULT, A WIND ADVISORY AS BEEN ISSUED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE ALLEGHENIES FROM 1AM TO 11AM WEDNESDAY FOR GUSTS
UP TO 50MPH POSSIBLE. ADDITIONALLY, AS THE SURFACE TROUGH PIVOTS
EAST, HI-RES GUIDANCE HINTS AT A RAIN/SNOW MIX OVERNIGHT. CAN'T
RULE OUT OCCASIONAL FLURRIES ACROSS NORTHERN MARYLAND, BUT GIVEN
THE 00Z SOUNDING PROFILE AND DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE, NO IMPACTS
EXPECTED. NO OTHER CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST 25 TO 35 MPH THROUGH MID-EVENING
BEFORE DIMINISHING SOME OVER LAND. THE WATERS MAY CONTINUE TO
GUST STRONG ENOUGH FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO BE IN EFFECT
FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING. DRY AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
THE NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S AND
LOWER 40S WILL STEADILY FALL THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO THE UPPER
20S TO MIDDLE 30S. THE WIND MAKES IT FEEL NOTICEABLY COLDER
WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS.
SHORT TERM /7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
A SOUTHWEST WIND AND WARM AIR ADVECTION DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING TO THE SOUTH WILL HELP TO RAISE
TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60, WHICH ARE MORE
SEASONABLE AND 10 TO 15 DEGREES MILDER THAN THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL STAY COLDER. ANY SNOWPACK
FROM THIS EARLY WEEK'S LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES EVEN COLDER. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST
WITH GUSTS PUSHING THE 35 TO 45 MPH RANGE. MORE SUNSHINE THAN
CLOUDS ON WEDNESDAY.
A FAST-MOVING CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM WILL RACE TOWARD THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT SHOULD BE A DRY FRONT PRIMARILY DUE TO LACK
OF MOISTURE. WE CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW FLURRIES IN THE NORTHERN
APPALACHIANS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WEDNESDAY NIGHT'S LOW ARE
FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO 30S, WITH LOW 40S AROUND
WASHINGTON D.C. AND BALTIMORE.
AN UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT OFFSHORE THURSDAY. A
WESTERLY DOWNSLOPING WIND IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT.
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THURSDAY. HIGHS IN THE 50S,
WITH MID 30S TO 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS. BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS UP
TO 20 TO 30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE, WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. HEADING INTO THE NIGHT, LOWS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 20S TO 30S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO OUR SOUTH SLIDES OFFSHORE FRIDAY, THEN A DRY
COLD FRONT IS SET TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE TRAVERSES THE REGION QUICKLY ON SATURDAY, THEN A DEEPENING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE OH VALLEY TO THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES SUNDAY. THIS COULD POSSIBLY BRING A QUICK ROUND OF
SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON, THEN DRY AGAIN BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT
TRACKS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS HIGHS REACH THE UPPER
50S TO LOW 60S. BECOMING VERY WARM AND BREEZY ON SUNDAY AS THE LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES AND SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE. TEMPERATURES
DROP BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL VALUES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 30S TO 40S, AND DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 50S TO
AROUND 60F.
AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY WITH A DRY FORECAST. GUSTY WINDS
THROUGH MID-EVENING WILL DIMINISH SOME OVERNIGHT BEFORE INCREASING
ONCE AGAIN THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. WINDS COULD GUST 30 TO 35
KNOTS DURING THE TIMEFRAME OF LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
WINDS WILL GUST 15 TO 20 KNOTS OVERNIGHT, THEN GUST ONCE AGAIN
CLOSE TO 30 KNOTS THURSDAY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FRIDAY INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND.
NORTHWEST WINDS GUST AROUND 15-20 KNOTS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
MARINE
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST 30 TO 35 KNOTS
THROUGH EARLY EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING SOME OVERNIGHT. GALE
WARNINGS REMAIN IN PLACE FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING. WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED INTO THIS EVENING AND NIGHT WHICH
HAVE PROMPTED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY INTO THE OVERNIGHT. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. SCA MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO THURSDAY AS WELL.
SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AS
SOUTHWEST WINDS GUST AROUND 15-20 KNOTS. WINDS TURN NORTHWEST BEHIND
THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING, WITH SCA CONDITIONS
LIKELY. WINDS QUICKLY DROP BELOW SCA LEVELS SATURDAY AFTERNOON, THEN
PICK BACK UP TO SCA LEVELS SATURDAY NIGHT AS SOUTHERLY CHANNELING
TAKES HOLD.
FIRE WEATHER
MUCH COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL MITIGATE THE FIRE
WEATHER THREAT. A WARM-UP WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY COMBINED WITH
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THE FIRE WEATHER DANGER,
PARTICULARLY IN LIGHT OF THE LOW DAYTIME RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND
MODERATE NIGHTTIME RECOVERIES. WINDS DIMINISH BY FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN, LESSENING THE FIRE WEATHER RISK. THE
PATTERN REMAINS DRY THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THIS
WEEKEND BEFORE RAINFALL CHANCES RETURN TO THE AREA BY SUNDAY.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ008.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 11 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ501-502-
510.
VA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 11 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VAZ503-504.
WV...WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 11 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ501>506.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ530>543.
SYNOPSIS...BRO
NEAR TERM...AVS/BRO/KLW
SHORT TERM...BRO/KLW
LONG TERM...KRR
AVIATION...KLW/KRR
MARINE...KLW/KRR
FIRE WEATHER...
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