244
FXUS61 KLWX 121531
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1031 AM EST WED NOV 12 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD WELL TO THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE A CLIPPER SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO MUCH OF
THE WEEKEND. A WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON SATURDAY BEFORE A
COLD FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA BY SUNDAY. THIS BRINGS THE
NEXT CHANCE OF RAINFALL. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH
ON MONDAY LEADING TO COOLER TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
A FAST-MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, FOLLOWED BY A RAPID AND STEADY
INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS. WINDS WILL INTENSIFY ACROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION; THUS, THE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
UNTIL 4PM THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE
ALLEGHENIES. ADDITIONAL WIND ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED ONCE THE
CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. TEMPERATURES
WILL RISE ONLY INTO THE MIDDLE 50S TO NEAR 60. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
DROP INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS THAT CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST, THE
GUIDANCE SHOW AN ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE GRAZING THE AREA TO THE
NORTH ON THURSDAY. THE NET EFFECT OF THIS AMPLIFICATION IS TO
INCREASE GRADIENTS AND FAVOR A BREEZY POST- FRONTAL
NORTHWESTERLY WIND. THE SHIFT OVER TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
HELP DROP TEMPERATURES A BIT DESPITE THE MINIMAL CHANGE IN
HEIGHTS AND LAYER THICKNESSES. FORECAST HIGHS ARE IN THE 50S
WITH PERHAPS A RANDOM 60 DEGREE READING OR TWO NEAR THE I-64
CORRIDOR. NORTHWESTERLY GUSTS UP TO 20 TO 30 MPH IS EXPECTED,
WITH UP TO 40 MPH GUSTS ALONG THE ALLEGHENIES. SKIES SHOULD BE
MORE SUNSHINE FILLED AIDED BY THE SUBSIDENCE ALOFT.
BY NIGHTFALL, WINDS DROP OFF AS GRADIENTS WEAKEN. HIGH PRESSURE
APPROACHING FROM THE UPPER TENNESSEE VALLEY GRADUALLY SETTLES
OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL USHER
IN A COOLER NIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID
30S. GIVEN IT WILL BE A RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT, AREAS THAT
TYPICALLY DECOUPLE MORE QUICKLY COULD SEE LOWS IN THE MID 20S.
TO CONCLUDE THE WORK WEEK, THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH MOVES OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST WHILE AN UPSTREAM RIDGE APPROACHES FROM THE
GREAT PLAINS. BEING ON THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THIS RIDGE, THE
MEAN TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST ON
FRIDAY. DESPITE ALL THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT, SURFACE GRADIENTS
ARE TO BE WEAKER GIVEN THE NEARBY ANTICYCLONE. NEAR AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S
(40S TO MID 50S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS). WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
OF 10 TO 15 MPH ARE ACCOMPANIED BY MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. A MILDER
NIGHT LIES AHEAD WITH LOWS IN THE 30S TO NEAR 40 DEGREES.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TRAVERSES THE REGION QUICKLY ON SATURDAY, THEN A
DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE OH VALLEY TO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY. THIS COULD POSSIBLY BRING A QUICK ROUND
OF SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON, THEN DRY AGAIN BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT
TRACKS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AS HIGHS REACH THE UPPER 50S TO LOW
60S. BECOMING VERY WARM AND BREEZY ON SUNDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES AND SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE. TEMPERATURES DROP
BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL VALUES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE 30S TO 40S, AND DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 50S TO AROUND
60F.
AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. THE MAIN
STORY AHEAD WILL BE THE CONTINUED GUSTY PERIODS OF WINDS AS A
SERIES OF DISTURBANCES TRACK ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. WINDS
SHOULD BE MAINLY SOUTHWESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO
NEAR 25 TO 30 KNOTS. SUCH WIND FIELDS TURN MORE WESTERLY AS A
QUICK MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM PUSHES THROUGH THIS EVENING.
WESTERLY FLOW PERSISTS INTO THURSDAY WITH MORE BREEZY DAYTIME
WINDS GUSTING AGAIN TO 25 TO 30 KNOTS. THESE EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO
NORTHWESTERLY ON FRIDAY WITH WINDS FALLING TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY WITH WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. CONDITIONS
SUNDAY WILL PRIMARILY BE VFR OUTSIDE ANY RAIN SHOWERS.
MARINE
A MULTI-DAY PERIOD OF HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
GIVEN THE BREEZY PATTERN IN PLACE. WHILE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
ARE IN EFFECT FOR A MAJORITY OF THE WATERS, OPTED TO DELAY THE
ONSET OF SUCH WINDS OVER THE UPPER TIDAL POTOMAC, AS WELL AS THE
PATUXENT AND PATAPSCO RIVERS. THIS AFTERNOON'S SOUTHWESTERLY
GUSTS MOVE INTO THE 20 TO 30 KNOT RANGE. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH
HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR REACHES THE WATER SURFACE, A FEW GALE FORCE
WINDS CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER THE MORE SOUTHERN WATERS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WERE EXTENDED INTO TONIGHT FOR THE WIDER
WATERS OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY DOWN INTO THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC.
WESTERLY WINDS MAY GUST TO AROUND 20 TO 25 KNOTS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. BEHIND A CLIPPER SYSTEM, ELEVATED NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS PERSIST INTO THURSDAY WHICH FAVOR ADDITIONAL ADVISORIES.
THESE MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OVER THE WIDER WATERS.
BY FRIDAY, THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD HELP LOWER
WIND GUSTS BACK INTO THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE.
WINDS REMAIN NEAR SCA LEVELS SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS QUICKLY DROP
BELOW SCA LEVELS SATURDAY AFTERNOON, THEN PICK BACK UP TO SCA LEVELS
SATURDAY NIGHT AS SOUTHERLY CHANNELING TAKES HOLD.
FIRE WEATHER
BEHIND THE EARLIER TROUGH, TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE
THROUGH THE WEEK BEFORE SHIFTING TO ABOVE AVERAGE BY THE END OF
THE WEEKEND. THROUGH THURSDAY, BREEZY WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL LEAD TO LOW DAYTIME RELATIVE HUMIDITIES. FORTUNATELY,
EXPECT GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES AHEAD AFTER A NIGHT WITH VERY
POOR RECOVERIES (35 TO 55 PERCENT). WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH
INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN, LESSENING THE FIRE
WEATHER RISK. THE PATTERN REMAINS DRY THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEKEND BEFORE RAINFALL CHANCES RETURN TO THE AREA
BY SUNDAY. HOWEVER, WETTING RAIN CHANCES ARE LOW AT THIS TIME.
THE PRIMARY PERIOD OF FIRE WEATHER CONCERN WOULD BE THIS
AFTERNOON FOR A FEW HOURS GIVEN CONTINUED DRYING OF THE FUELS
EACH DAY. THOSE WITHIN THE SEVERE DROUGHT (D2) AREAS WOULD BE AT
GREATEST RISK OF SUBSEQUENT FIRE WEATHER RISKS. WE ARE CURRENTLY
EVALUATING DATA AND ARE IN THE PROCESS OF ISSUING AN SPS FOR THE
CONCERN OF FIRE WEATHER ALONG THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY AND AREAS TO
THE NORTH AND EAST.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MDZ008.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MDZ501-502-510.
VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR VAZ503-504.
WV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WVZ501>506.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ530>534-
537-539>541-543.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ535-
536-538-542.
SYNOPSIS...BRO
NEAR TERM...BRO/KLW
SHORT TERM...BRO
LONG TERM...CPB
AVIATION...BRO/KLW/CPB
MARINE...BRO/KLW/CPB
FIRE WEATHER...
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