099
FXUS61 KLWX 121930
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
230 PM EST WED NOV 12 2025
SYNOPSIS
A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. BEHIND IT
AND OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST. A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE
A COLD FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA BY SUNDAY. THIS BRINGS THE
NEXT CHANCE OF RAINFALL. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH
ON MONDAY LEADING TO COOLER TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
A FAST-MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY, ALTHOUGH NOT AS STRONG AS THE PAST 48
HOURS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GUST 15 TO 20 MPH, BUT A LITTLE
STRONGER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE AS CHILLY AS LAST NIGHT WITH LOWS
BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER 20S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO MIDDLE 30S IN
THE AREAS TO THE EAST WITH A FEW PLACES NEAR 40 ALONG THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST AND INTERACTING
WITH THE DEPARTING MID-LEVEL CLIPPER SYSTEM, WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO GUST 20 TO 25 MPH FOR MOST WITH PLACES IN THE MOUNTAINS
HITTING THE 35 MPH MARK MUCH OF THE DAY THURSDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL BE ABOUT THE SAME AS THIS AFTERNOON
WITH HIGHS REACHING THE 50S FOR MOST. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OVERHEAD.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL ON FRIDAY. THE DIMINISHED
WIND MAY ALLOW FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
TEMPERATURES TO BE ABOUT 5 TO 7 DEGREES COLDER THAN TONIGHT.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WITH SOME ADDED SUNSHINE AND LESS
COLD WIND GUSTS MAY BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES MILDER REACHING THE
MIDDLE 50S TO LOWER 60S. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. MILDER
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 30S TO NEAR 40
DEGREE.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
COOL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST FINALLY MOVES OUT ON SATURDAY
AS A WARM FRONT SWEEPS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. WINDS WILL INCREASE
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF COLD FRONT THAT IS
EXPECTED TO CROSS OUR AREA EARLY SUNDAY. ALL OF THAT BRINGS A
CHANCE OF RAIN, MOST PRONOUNCED ON SAT NIGHT. NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION TO GET A RUMBLE OF THUNDER TOO. THEN, MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY, CONFIDENCE FALLS
AS THE MODELS DIVERGE, BUT IT LOOKS TO BE EITHER SEASONABLE WITH A
FLAT RIDGE/ZONAL FLOW OVER THE EAST, OR CONTINUED TROUGHING AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES. ALSO WITH THE 12Z, THE GFS AND EURO CONVERGING
ON A SHORT WAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN US TUE OR TUE NIGHT.
HOWEVER NO CLARITY ON WHETHER IT AFFECTS OUR LATITUDE OR FURTHER
SOUTH.
AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE PERSISTENT
OUT OF THE WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
STRONGER WIND GUSTS WILL BE LATER THIS AFTERNOON, 25 TO 30 KNOTS,
AND AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON, 20 TO 30 KNOTS. ASIDE FROM THESE
WINDOWS, WINDS WILL LESSENED WITH LACK OF DAYTIME MIXING.
VFR CONDITIONS AT LEAST TO START SATURDAY. SOME HINTS OF CONVECTION
BY LATE SAT/SAT NIGHT, WITH WINDS ON THE INCREASE. CONDITIONS SUNDAY
WILL PRIMARILY BE VFR OUTSIDE ANY RAIN SHOWERS WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. VFR FOR MONDAY AS WELL.
MARINE
PERSISTENT GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED OVER
THE WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING, DIMINISHING SOME OVERNIGHT, BUT
THEN RETURNING GUSTY AGAIN THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT THROUGH LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THERE
APPEARS TO BE A LULL THAT COULD HAPPEN IN PARTS OF THE TIDAL
POTOMAC OVERNIGHT, BUT MAY ONLY LAST A COUPLE OF HOURS. WINDS
WILL AVERAGE 20 TO 30 KNOTS, WHILE BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
ON THURSDAY WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WEST. HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD BECOME A BIG INFLUENCER WITH REGARDS TO SETTLING
OR MOVING OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY. THEREFORE, WINDS WILL DIMINISH
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLD.
SCA WINDS RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. SUNDAY
WILL BE WINDY AFTER THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS WITH AT LEAST
STRONG SMALL CRAFT ADV WINDS EXPECTED. MONDAY WILL LIKELY REMAIN
BREEZY WITH CONTINUING SCAS.
FIRE WEATHER
A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT FOR A LARGE AREA
BETWEEN AND INCLUDING THE CENTRAL SHENANDOAH VALLEY AND I-95 IN
VIRGINIA. THIS AREA INCLUDES THE EXTENT OF I-66 AND AREAS TO THE
SOUTH. THE STATEMENT INDICATES THE ELEVATED FIRE DANGER THROUGH
5PM THIS AFTERNOON. AFTERWARDS, THIS RISK RECEDES. AS FOR
THURSDAY, RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE MIDDLE 20S
TO LOWER 30S AGAIN WITH A GUSTY WIND. WE MAY NEED TO VISIT THIS
FIRE WEATHER THREAT AGAIN THURSDAY. IT SEEMS THAT LOOKING AHEAD
TO FRIDAY, WIND SPEEDS MAY NOT BE PRESENT TO PROVIDE A THREAT
AGAIN, EVENTHOUGH IT WILL BE DRY.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THURSDAY FOR MDZ008.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ530>534-
537-539>541-543.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ535-
536-538-542.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 5 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ535-
536-538-542.
SYNOPSIS...KLW
NEAR TERM...KLW
SHORT TERM...BRO/KLW
LONG TERM...CS
AVIATION...CS/KLW
MARINE...CS/KLW
FIRE WEATHER...KLW
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