770
FXUS61 KLWX 281449
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
949 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH THE
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE MID-SOUTH TONIGHT
BEFORE SETTLING OVERHEAD SATURDAY AND MOVING OFFSHORE SATURDAY
NIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT TOWARD THE AREA SUNDAY BRING A
LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO PARTS OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS
MONDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT BEFORE ANOTHER WINTRY PRECIPITATION
THREAT TUESDAY INTO MIDWEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS VIA RADAR AND LOCAL TRAFFIC CAMERAS OUT
ALONG THE ALLEGHENY FRONT SHOW CONTINUED UPSLOPE SNOW ACTIVITY
AT THIS TIME, ALBEIT VERY LIGHT IN NATURE. AS EXPECTED, NOT
REALLY EXPECTING MUCH IN TERMS OF ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS, SO
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED
AT 9 AM. FURTHER EAST, A FEW FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS HAVE
MADE IT AS FAR EAST AS THE I-81 CORRIDOR. HOWEVER, NOT EXPECTING
ANY ACCUMULATION WITH THIS ACTIVITY. RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW
SOME SNOW SHOWERS SPILLING INTO THIS CORRIDOR, SO THESE MAY
LINGER A LITTLE BIT LONGER THAN INITIALLY THOUGHT, SO AM
EXTENDING THAT THROUGH NOON OR SO WITH THE NEXT UPDATE.
THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AS COLD AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT INTO OUR AREA. HIGHS
WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE LOW 40S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE, AND
WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S FOR THE I-81 CORRIDOR. THE
MOUNTAINS REMAIN BELOW FREEZING. MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS MAY
RE-INTENSIFY A BIT INTO THIS AFTERNOON, THEN COME TO AN END BY
THIS EVENING. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS ACTIVITY FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SQUALLS TO DEVELOP IN PARTS OF OUR NORTHWEST
ZONES. THIS WILL REMAIN AN ISSUE FOR CORRIDORS ALONG/WEST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. THOSE WHO INTEND ON TRAVELING THIS
AFTERNOON IN THIS AREA SHOULD BE MINDFUL FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING
CONDITIONS IF SNOW SQUALLS MOVE THROUGH. WHILE THERE IS NO
WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATION IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS ACTIVITY, THOSE
AREAS THAT DO GET HIT BY A SQUALL COULD PICK UP A QUICK HALF
INCH OR SO IN A VERY SHORT TIME, SHOULD THIS THREAT
MATERIALIZE.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN QUICKLY BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH
TONIGHT, THEN THE HIGH SLIDES OVERHEAD ON SATURDAY. MOUNTAIN
SNOW SHOWERS COME TO AN END TONIGHT, WITH DRY CONDITIONS FOR
SATURDAY. THE COLDEST TEMPS DURING THIS STRETCH ARE MOST LIKELY
TONIGHT WITH MID TEENS TO LOW 20S ACROSS THE AREA.
A COLD AND MOSTLY SUNNY DAY ON SATURDAY AS HIGHS REACH THE MID
30S TO LOW 40S. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FILTER THROUGH THE DAY AS THE
NEXT, POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
PRECIPITATION COULD BEGIN AS SNOW OR WINTRY MIX IN THE MOUNTAINS
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, THERE REMAINS A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING WHEN PRECIPITATION BEGINS, AND HOW QUICKLY
THE WET BULB EFFECT CAN EAT AWAY AT THE DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE.
ADDITIONALLY SOME WINTRY PRECIP IS POSSIBLE IN PARTS OF THE
SHENANDOAH VALLEY AND MAYBE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE (THOUGH WILL
HAVE TO OVERCOME THAT DRY AIR BEFORE TEMPS RISE AFTER SUNRISE).
THOSE TRAVELING SUNDAY ARE ADVISED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE
FORECAST AS CONFIDENCE INCREASES TOWARD A PARTICULAR SOLUTION.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AMONGST BOTH DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS IN REGARDS TO THE WINTRY PRECIPITATION THREAT
EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS IT STANDS NOW, HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY RETURNS
BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT WHICH LOOKS TO STALL JUST OFF THE
DELMARVA AND CAROLINA COAST. MEANWHILE, LOW PRESSURE WILL EJECT
NORTH AND EAST FROM WESTERN GULF INTO SOUTHEAST U.S AND TOWARD THE
CAROLINA COAST TUESDAY.THE LOW WILL CONTINUE NORTH AND EAST TOWARD
COASTAL NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO FOLLOW LATE
IN THE WEEK.
FOR MONDAY, EXPECT A RELATIVELY DRY AND CHILLY DAY AHEAD WITH
MORNING TEMPS IN THE 20S AND AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S AND
MID 40S. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S WITH
MOISTURE BEING DRAWN NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF. MOST WILL REMAIN DRY
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH PRECIPITATION MAKING IT AS FAR NORTH AS
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. THE BIG QUESTION IS WHAT KIND
OF PRECIPITATION WILL WE SEE. THIS WILL ULTIMATELY BE DICTATED BY
THE PLACEMENT OF THE HIGH TO THE NORTH AND TRACK OF THE LOW TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. BOTH DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITES
SHOW A VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS COMPARED TO THE NBM WHICH HAS
PROBABILITIES OF 30 PERCENT OR GREATER FOR 1" OF SNOW AND 0.01" OF
ICE WEST OF I-95 TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF IS THE
COLDEST OF THE 3 DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS COMPARED TO THE GFS AND
GEM. THIS IS SIMILAR AMONGST THE EPS VS. GEFS VS. LREF ALTHOUGH
THERE IS EVEN MORE OF A SPREAD AMONGST THE SOLUTIONS. WITH THAT
SAID, THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO LOOKS TO BE A PERIOD OF SNOW, SLEET,
AND FREEZING RAIN FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TUESDAY
MORNING WITH A CHANGE TO RAIN LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHER
ELEVATION LOCATIONS LIKE THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE/CATOCTINS AND
ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS COULD REMAIN WITH A MIXED BAG OF PRECIPITATION
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO TUESDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY WILL START IN THE 20S BEFORE RISING INTO THE MID TO UPPER
30S THROUGHOUT THE DAY (MTNS AROUND 32 DEGREES. WITH SEVERAL DAYS OF
COLD CONDITIONS WINTRY WEATHER IMPACTS ARE POSSIBLE ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO REMAIN LOW IN THIS FORECAST. CONTINUE TO
MONITOR WEATHER.GOV/LWX/WINTER FOR ANY CHANGES IN FUTURE FORECASTS
TO COME.
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FROM THE OHIO AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEYS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY LEADING TO ANOTHER BRIEF LULL
BETWEEN SYSTEMS. A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS
COULD KICK OFF A ROUND OF UPSLOPE SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AS
ADDITIONAL COLD CANADIAN AIR IS FUNNELED INTO THE REGION. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL REMAIN 4 TO 8 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S AND MID 40S (MTNS LOW TO MID
30S). LOWS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S (LOW 20S MTNS).
AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY. THE MAIN
AVIATION IMPACT IS GOING TO BE FROM STRONG WIND GUSTS THROUGH
THE DAY TODAY. PEAK GUSTS AROUND 30-35 KNOTS EXPECTED INTO THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS DECREASE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE
EAST TO ALLOW FOR A STORM SYSTEM TO BRING A WINTRY MIX IN THE
WEST TO RAIN FARTHER EAST. THIS EXPECTED PRECIPITATION THROUGH
THE DAY SUNDAY WILL LEAD TO REDUCTIONS IN CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITY.
VFR CONDITIONS RETURN BRIEFLY MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SITS NEARBY.
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS RETURN WITH WINTRY PRECIPITATION CHANCES TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE WORKS NORTH AND EAST ALONG THE
CAROLINA COAST. VFR CONDITIONS RETURNS WITH HIGH PRESSURE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY.
MARINE
HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE WATERS
TODAY AS COLD WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE IN THE WAKE OF A
POWERFUL COLD FRONT THAT PUSHED THROUGH YESTERDAY. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT WITH A POSSIBLE PERIOD OF NEAR GALE
FORCE GUSTS INTO THE MIDDLE OF THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE CHESAPEAKE
BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE, AND THE UPPER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER.
CONFIDENCE JUST WASN'T HIGH ENOUGH FOR A PROLONGED 2+ HOUR
PERIOD OF GALE-FORCE WINDS, BUT COULD SEE AT LEAST A FEW GUSTS
OUT THERE. THESE ARES WILL SEE GUSTS IN THE LOWER 30 KT RANGE.
THE REST OF THE WATERS WILL SEE GUSTS BETWEEN 25-30 KNOTS.
EITHER WAY, VERY HAZARDOUS TO BE OUT ON THE WATERS TODAY,
ESPECIALLY IF YOU ARE IN A SMALLER VESSEL.
WINDS SLOWLY DIMINISH TONIGHT, AND SHOULD FALL BELOW SCA LEVELS
BY SUNRISE SATURDAY. LIGHT TO SOUTHEAST WINDS INTO SUNDAY WITH
AN INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
GALE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES OFFSHORE. SUB-SCA LEVEL CONDITIONS
RETURN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. ADDITIONAL SCAS WILL BE NEEDED
AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR MDZ008.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ530>543.
SYNOPSIS...KLW/EST
NEAR TERM...KLW/CJL
SHORT TERM...ADS/KLW
LONG TERM...EST
AVIATION...ADS/CJL/KLW/EST
MARINE...ADS/CJL/KLW/EST
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