013
FXUS61 KLWX 290847
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
347 AM EST SAT NOV 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTH ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY. A LIGHT WINTRY MIX WILL
OVERSPREAD PARTS OF THE ALLEGHENIES, CENTRAL SHENANDOAH VALLEY
AND THE BLUE RIDGE LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. AFTERWARDS,
RAIN WILL MOVE EAST AS THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO NEW
ENGLAND. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS MONDAY. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
COULD BRING A WINTRY MIX TO THE REGION LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. AN ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCE TRACKS THROUGH LATER IN THE
WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY, DRY AND CHILLY
CONDITIONS WILL EVOLVE. A LIGHT TO MODEST GUSTY WIND FROM THE
NORTHWEST WILL BECOME MORE SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGHOUT
TODAY JUST AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT LATER TONIGHT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN THE MIDDLE 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S TO THE EAST. THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING TO
BRING US A THREAT OF SOME LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM
OF SNOW, SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR THE WESTERN RIDGES OF THE ALLEGHENIES, PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL SHENANDOAH VALLEY AND THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS
FROM 3AM TONIGHT THROUGH NOON SUNDAY. SNOW AND SLEET
ACCUMULATIONS MAY REACH UP TO AN INCH, WHILE ICE ACCUMULATIONS
SHOULD BE AROUND A GLAZE IF NOT A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH.
GUSTY WINDS COULD ALSO REACH UP TO 35 MPH AT TIMES DURING THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION, WHETHER IT BE WINTRY OR PLAIN RAIN,
WILL MOVE OUT SUNDAY EVENING WITH A COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH
THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL DECREASE AND TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO
THE TEENS AND 20S SUNDAY NIGHT.
MONDAY WILL BE CHILLY AND DRY WITH A SECOND DOME OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION BEHIND SUNDAY'S COLD FRONT.
THIS HIGH IS EXPECTED TO ALSO MOVE EAST AND AWAY FROM THE REGION
MONDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE
TOWARD US MONDAY NIGHT AND OVER OR NEAR US BY TUESDAY. SOME
WINTRY PRECIPITATION COULD ARRIVE IN THE CENTRAL SHENANDOAH
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS MONDAY NIGHT. WE WILL BE FINE
TUNING THE TIMING AND PRECIPITATION TYPES OVER THE WEEKEND FOR
THIS EARLY/MIDWEEK STORM SYSTEM.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF, ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS, AND EVENTUALLY OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL
PRECIPITATION AND POSSIBLE WINTRY MIX TO THE FORECAST AREA ON
TUESDAY. PRECIPITATION TYPE IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW LONG COLD AIR
LINGERS, SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN ARE POSSIBLE, MAINLY ALONG AND WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE. A WINTRY MIX COULD SPILL FURTHER EAST TOWARDS THE
I-95 CORRIDOR, ALTHOUGH PRIMARY PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL LIKELY BE
RAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S
WITH OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE 20S FOR MOST (30S
IN THE METROS).
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED BOTH DAYS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
30S TO 40S BOTH DAYS WITH THURSDAY BEING THE WARMER OF THE TWO DAYS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS DROP INTO THE 20S. PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN
FRIDAY WITH A WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE.
AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER AND CHILLY
TEMPERATURES. WINDS NORTHWEST 5 TO 10 KNOTS TODAY, BECOMING
SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 KNOTS TONIGHT. SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW COULD
MOVE INTO CHO AND MRB LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING THAT
COULD DROP OUR CEILINGS TO MVFR TO IFR OR PERHAPS OUR VISIBILITY
TO 2 OR 3 MILES. OTHERWISE, THE OTHER TERMINALS SHOULD REMAIN
PRECIPITATION-FREE UNTIL AROUND MIDDAY OR SUNDAY AFTERNOON,
WHERE THERE COULD BE MINOR RESTRICTIONS AT THE OTHER TERMINALS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS SOUTH BECOMING SOUTHWEST
AROUND 10 KNOTS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT BEHIND A WARM FRONT AND
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ON TUESDAY WITH A WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE
ACROSS ALL TERMINALS. A SNOW/FREEZING RAIN MIX IS EXPECTED TUESDAY
MORNING BEFORE TEMPERATURES WARM AND PRECIPITATION TYPE TRANSITIONS
TO FREEZING RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN WEDNESDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD.
MARINE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHING. LIGHT TO SOUTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED INTO
SUNDAY WITH AN INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES
AND PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS
THE LOCAL WATERS ON MONDAY. A NORTHWEST WIND WILL INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY IN THE WAKE OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
WINDS NEAR SCA CRITERIA OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE CHESAPEAKE
BAY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING
WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS,
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
MDZ008.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO NOON EST SUNDAY FOR
MDZ509-510.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO NOON EST SUNDAY FOR
VAZ025-036-503-504-507-508.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO NOON EST SUNDAY FOR
WVZ501-503-505.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ530>543.
SYNOPSIS...CJL
NEAR TERM...BRO/KLW
SHORT TERM...KLW/CJL
LONG TERM...AVS
AVIATION...AVS/KLW
MARINE...AVS/KLW
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