898
FXUS61 KLWX 291851
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
151 PM EST SAT NOV 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTH ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY, BRINING A LIGHT WINTRY MIX
FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS MONDAY. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY MORNING, AND COULD BRING A WINTRY MIX TO PORTIONS OF THE
REGION. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MVOES THROUGH THE REGION LATER IN
THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
WINDS ARE GRADUALLY STARTING TO TURN OUT OF THE SOUTH AS HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE. THIS WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. GIVEN
THE WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S OVERNIGHT, PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AS A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION. AS SUCH,
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS THREAT, MAINLY
FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WHERE FREEZING RAIN WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT. VALLEY LOCATIONS, AND PERHAPS EVEN AREAS JUST
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE, MAY SEE A MIX OF SNOW, SLEET, AND/OR
FREEZING RAIN AT THE ONSET. HOWEVER, THOSE LOCATIONS WILL RISE
ABOVE FREEZING MUCH QUICKER, TRANSITIONING MORE TO A COLD RAIN
FOR MOST. THE RIDGES WILL HANG ONTO ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES
LATER INTO THE MORNING AND EVEN UNTIL AROUND NOON. AFTER THAT,
ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF A COLD RAIN,
BUT WILL QUICKLY PUSH OFF TOWARDS THE EAST. WHEN ALL IS SAID AND
DONE, VERY MINIMAL SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS ARE FORECAST,
WHILE ICE ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE AROUND A GLAZE IF NOT A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. GUSTY WINDS COULD ALSO REACH UP TO 35 MPH
AT TIMES DURING THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
THE PRECIPITATION, OUTSIDE OF SOME LINGERING UPSLOPE SHOWERS,
SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA BY SUNSET OR SO. A PUSH OF GUSTY NW
WINDS WILL MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY,
THOUGH IT DOESN'T LOOK TO NECESSITATE ANY WIND HEADLINES AT
THIS TIME. THE MAIN IMPACT WOULD BE SOME PRETTY COLD WIND CHILLS
SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH LOW TEMPERATURES FORECAST IN THE 20S (WIND
CHILLS IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S).
MONDAY WILL BE CHILLY AND DRY WITH A SECOND DOME OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION BEHIND SUNDAY'S COLD FRONT.
THIS HIGH IS EXPECTED TO ALSO MOVE EAST AND AWAY FROM THE REGION
MONDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE
TOWARD US MONDAY NIGHT. SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION COULD ARRIVE
IN THE CENTRAL SHENANDOAH VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS LATE
MONDAY NIGHT, BUT MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON TUESDAY
MORNING (SEE LONG TERM BELOW).
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD ON
TUESDAY IS LIKELY TO BRING A WINTRY MIX TO PARTS OF THE AREA.
A RETREATING SURFACE HIGH WILL BE NEAR NOVA SCOTIA COME EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING, WITH A LOW PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVING ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS TO OFFSHORE OF VIRGINIA. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN AS
IT MOVES OFFSHORE OF THE DELMARVA TOWARD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE FOR A WINTRY MIX ALONG
AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE, WITH FREEZING RAIN LIKELY BEING THE
PRIMARY P-TYPE. THIS IS DUE TO A STRENGTHENING LLJ THAT QUICKLY
USHERS IN A WARM NOSE ALOFT. THOUGH, GIVEN THE COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE
AND EARLIER PRECIP ONSET, THERE COULD BE A QUICK BURST OF SNOW
AND/OR SLEET BEFORE PRECIP TRANSITIONS TO FREEZING RAIN OR RAIN.
PERHAPS IN PARTS OF WESTERN MD OR THE ALLEGHENIES THE COLD AIR HANGS
ON THROUGH THE EVENT, KEEPING SNOW AS THE PRIMARY P-TYPE. STILL,
THAT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE LOW TRACKS, HOW STRONG THE LOW
IS (WHETHER IT CAN SURGE WARMER AIR FARTHER NORTHWARD FASTER), AND
HOW THE RETREATING HIGH TO THE NORTH CAN KEEP THE COLD AIR WEDGED
IN. LATEST MODEL TRENDS ARE FOR A FASTER ONSET OF PRECIPITATION
(SEEN IN THE GFS AND CANADIAN), THOUGH VIRTUALLY ALL OF THE GUIDANCE
HAS PRECIP STARTING WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY 4-5AM TUESDAY MORNING.
FOR AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE, IT SEEMS THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO
IS FOR A POSSIBLE WINTRY MIX OF SNOW/SLEET/RAIN AT THE ONSET, THEN
QUICKLY TRANSITIONS TO A COLD RAIN. THOSE ALONG/EAST OF US-15 HAVE
THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING NON-RAIN P-TYPE AT THE ONSET. STILL, A LOT
TO DETERMINE IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS SO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE WEATHER
FOR ADDITIONAL UPDATES. THOSE AREAS THAT DO GET A WINTRY MIX COULD
EXPERIENCE TRAVEL DISRUPTIONS DURING THE TUESDAY MORNING COMMUTE.
THE LOW PULLS AWAY FROM THE AREA QUICKLY TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH PRECIP
COMING TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, WITH DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS EXPECTED. A
COLD FRONT LOOKS TO CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON, POSSIBLY
BRINGING SOME MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE VERY COLD
WITH MORNING LOWS IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S, AND HIGHS IN THE 30S TO
AROUND 40F.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER AND CHILLY
TEMPERATURES. WINDS NORTHWEST 5 TO 10 KNOTS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY, BECOMING SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 KNOTS TONIGHT.
SOME LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION COULD MOVE INTO CHO AND MRB
LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING THAT COULD DROP OUR CEILINGS
TO MVFR TO IFR OR PERHAPS OUR VISIBILITY TO 2 OR 3 MILES.
INTRODUCED A PROB30 FOR SOME ZR AT CHO, AND FOR SNOW SHOWERS AT
MRB IN THE LATEST TAF UPDATES. OTHERWISE, THE OTHER TERMINALS
MAY SEE A BRIEF RAIN/SNOW(OR SLEET) MIX AT THE ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION EARLY TO MID MORNING. SOME MINOR RESTRICTIONS CAN
BE EXPECTED IF THIS THREAT MATERIALIZES. EMPHASIZING THE PROB30S
IN THE TAFS BECAUSE THIS EVENT HAS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY.
WINDS SOUTH BECOMING SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT BEHIND A WARM FRONT AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
DRY WITH GUSTY NW WINDS ON MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT. EXPECT GUSTS TO AROUND 20 TO 25
KNOTS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY, BEFORE TAPERING OFF IN
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TUESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS JUST EAST OF THE AREA. A WINTRY MIX IS
POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, THOUGH MOST QUICKLY
TRANSITION TO A COLD RAIN. MRB IS THE MOST LIKELY TO SEE FREEZING
RAIN PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
MARINE
LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS OFFSHORE. THIS SHIFT IN HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH A WARM
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY, AND WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN WINDS SUNDAY MORNING, AS WELL AS A DIRECTIONAL
CHANGE OUT OF THE SW. ADDITIONALLY, SOME LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED
OVER THE WATERS DURING THIS TIME AS WELL. NO MARINE HAZARDS ARE
EXPECTED HOWEVER, AS WINDS STAY AOB 15 KNOTS AT BEST.
A COLD FRONT WILL THEN PUSH THROUGH LATER IN THE AFTERNOON,
WHICH WILL BRING A PUSH OF STRONGER WINDS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
AND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF MONDAY. SCAS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS EAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS IS LIKELY TO BRING SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL THE
WATERS, WITH NEAR-GALE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE IN THE OPEN WATERS OF
THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY, WITH SUB-SCA WINDS LIKELY.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO NOON EST SUNDAY FOR
MDZ509-510.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO NOON EST SUNDAY FOR
VAZ025-036-503-504-507-508.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO NOON EST SUNDAY FOR
WVZ501-503-505.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...CJL
NEAR TERM...CJL
SHORT TERM...CJL
LONG TERM...KRR
AVIATION...CJL/KRR
MARINE...CJL/KRR
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