036
FXUS61 KLWX 300907
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
407 AM EST SUN NOV 30 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY, BRINGING
A LIGHT WINTRY MIX FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS MONDAY. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING, AND COULD BRING A WINTRY MIX TO
PORTIONS OF THE REGION. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION LATER IN THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
CURRENT RADAR ECHOS AS OF 330AM SUNDAY COVER THE WESTERN HALF
OF OUR REGION. HOWEVER; MOST OF THOSE ALONG AND TO THE EAST OF
THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY REPRESENT VIRGA, OR PRECIPITATION FALLING
BUT NOT REACHING THE GROUND. THIS IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF DRY
AIR IN THE LOWER 5000 FEET OF THE ATMOSPHERE IN THESE AREAS AND
FARTHER TO THE EAST. THE CURRENT THINKING IS AS A WARM FRONT
THAT IS BISECTING OUR REGION NORTH TO SOUTH MOVES TO THE NORTH
AND EAST THROUGHOUT THE MORNING, ADDITIONAL SATURATION IN THE
LOWER LEVELS WILL OCCUR. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR PRECIPITATION TO
REACH THE GROUND. MOST WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW, SLEET OR
FREEZING RAIN AS NEARLY 95% OF THE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
REGION ARE AT OR BELOW FREEZING. ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE
LIGHT. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
PORTIONS OF THE ALLEGHENIES, CENTRAL SHENANDOAH VALLEY, AND THE
BLUE RIDGE THROUGH NOON TODAY. ELSEWHERE, PRECIPITATION WILL
FALL AS A CHILLY RAIN AND AMOUNTS WILL ALSO BE LIGHT. IN TERMS
OF SNOW AND SLEET, AMOUNTS COULD REACH UP TO AN INCH. FREEZING
RAIN COULD LEAD TO ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF A GLAZE TO A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. SOUTHWEST WINDS COULD ALSO GUST UP TO 35
MPH AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND A LITTLE LESS TO THE EAST. AS WE
PROGRESS INTO THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT, PRECIPITATION WILL
TAPER AND COME TO AN END MAINLY EARLY TO MID- EVENING. BEHIND
THIS PRECIPITATION, COLD AND DRY AIR WILL BE USHERED IN ON AN
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON MAY
ONLY REACH THE 40S TO NEAR 50, WHILE OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
WILL PLUNGE BACK INTO THE LOWER 20S IN THE WEST TO THE LOWER 30S
IN THE EAST.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
A GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND AHEAD OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING THE
COLD AIR INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY. THE HIGH BUILDING INTO THE
REGION MONDAY WILL MOVE TO THE EAST LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. A STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATER MONDAY
NIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY. AGAIN, WINTRY
PRECIPITATION COULD ACCOMPANY THIS STORM SYSTEM LATE MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY. HIGHER SNOW, SLEET, AND ICE AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE TUESDAY'S STORM THAN THIS MORNING'S STORM. WE
WILL FINE TUNE THE FORECAST FOR THIS TUESDAY'S STORM AS WE WATCH
TODAY'S FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. THE COLD AIR WILL LINGER
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THE GLOBAL-SCALE PATTERN SHOWS A SPLIT FLOW REGIME IN PLACE WITH
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE U.S.
UP TO HUDSON BAY. AT THE SAME TIME, A WAVE INITIALLY OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST/NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA EJECTS TOWARD THE GULF OF AMERICA
OVER NEXT WEEKEND. FURTHER UPSTREAM, AN EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE
DOMINATES BEFORE FLATTENING OUT IN TIME.
DOWN AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN DURING THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK. EVENTUALLY AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE WILL DRIVE A SWIFT MOVING
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. GIVEN A LACK OF MOISTURE BEHIND THE
PREVIOUS SYSTEM, THIS WILL BE A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE. IN THE WAKE, A
PROGRESSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TOWARD THE EASTERN U.S. BY
LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. AS THIS ANTICYCLONE RETREATS INTO COASTAL
NEW ENGLAND, A WAVE WITHIN THE CYCLONIC FLOW TRIES TO SPIN UP A
COASTAL SYSTEM LATE IN THE WEEK. WHILE A NUMBER OF 18Z/12Z
DETERMINISTIC MODELS DEPICT THIS SCENARIO, ENSEMBLE SPREAD IS RATHER
LARGE INDICATING A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PATTERN. DEPENDING ON
HOW THIS EVOLVES AND DEGREE OF COLD AIR OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION, SOME WINTRY THREAT MAY EMERGE LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND BEFORE
ANOTHER WAVE IS WORTH MONITORING BY NEXT SUNDAY.
THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES DURING THE FIRST FULL WEEK OF DECEMBER. DAILY HIGHS ARE
LIKELY TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S (MOUNTAINS IN THE 20S TO
MID 30S). NIGHTTIME CONDITIONS WILL FAVOR LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO 20S.
AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
SOME LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE INTO CHO AND MRB THIS
MORNING THAT COULD DROP OUR CEILINGS TO MVFR TO IFR OR PERHAPS
OUR VISIBILITY TO 2 OR 3 MILES. SOME MINOR RESTRICTIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED IF THIS THREAT MATERIALIZES. WINDS SOUTH BECOMING
SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS TODAY AND TONIGHT BEHIND A WARM FRONT
AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
DRY WITH GUSTY NW WINDS ON MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
COLD FRONT. EXPECT GUSTS TO AROUND 20 TO 25 KNOTS DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF THE DAY, BEFORE TAPERING OFF IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TUESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS JUST EAST OF THE AREA. A WINTRY MIX
IS POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, THOUGH MOST
QUICKLY TRANSITION TO A COLD RAIN. MRB IS THE MOST LIKELY TO
SEE FREEZING RAIN PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION MID-WEEK BEFORE A PROGRESSIVE DRY
FRONTAL SYSTEM RACES THROUGH ON THURSDAY. EXPECT MAINLY WEST-
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THIS PATTERN, ALTHOUGH WINDS BRIEFLY SHIFT TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE EXITS.
MARINE
A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY, AND WILL
RESULT IN A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WINDS THIS MORNING, AS WELL AS A
DIRECTIONAL CHANGE OUT OF THE SW. ADDITIONALLY, SOME LIGHT RAIN
IS EXPECTED OVER THE WATERS DURING THIS TIME AS WELL. NO MARINE
HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED HOWEVER, AS WINDS STAY AOB 15 KNOTS AT
BEST.
A COLD FRONT WILL THEN PUSH THROUGH LATER IN THE AFTERNOON,
WHICH WILL BRING A PUSH OF STRONGER WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT AND
INTO THE FIRST HALF OF MONDAY. SCAS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THESE
NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE OPEN BAY.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS EAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS IS LIKELY TO BRING SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL THE
WATERS, WITH NEAR-GALE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE IN THE OPEN WATERS OF
THE CHESAPEAKE BAY.
BRISK NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL FAVOR ADVISORY-CALIBER WINDS FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF WEDNESDAY. WINDS DROP OFF AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
A PROGRESSIVE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS ON THURSDAY WHICH
MAY SUPPORT GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KNOTS OR SO.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL LEAD TO POSSIBLE BLOW OUT TIDES
STARTING MONDAY MORNING. LOW WATER LEVELS ARE POSSIBLE AT
CHESAPEAKE CITY, HAVRE DE GRACE, BALTIMORE,ANNAPOLIS, AND SOLOMONS
ISLAND. TIDAL ANOMALIES BEGIN RISING TUESDAY MORNING.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EST THIS EVENING
FOR MDZ008.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EST
MONDAY FOR MDZ008.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MDZ509-510.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VAZ025-036-
503-504-507-508.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR WVZ501-503-
505.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EST THIS EVENING
FOR ANZ530>532-535-538>540.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EST
MONDAY FOR ANZ530>534-537>543.
SYNOPSIS...CJL
NEAR TERM...KLW/CJL
SHORT TERM...KLW/CJL
LONG TERM...BRO
AVIATION...BRO/KLW
MARINE...BRO/KLW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BRO
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