376
FXUS61 KLWX 301900
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
200 PM EST SUN NOV 30 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN MONDAY. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING, AND THIS COULD BRING A
WINTRY MIX TO MUCH OF THE REGION. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION LATER IN THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
A WEAK AND DIFFUSE WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED NORTH OF THE MASON
DIXON LINE AS BEST I CAN TELL AS OF MID AFTERNOON, AS WINDS HAVE
SHIFTED TO OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND DEW POINTS HAVE BEEN STEADILY
RISING. BACK OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY, A COLD FRONT WAS TREKKING
EASTWARD. THIS COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE APPALACHIANS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON, THEN CROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH
THIS EVENING.
BROAD ASCENT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN
SOME SPOTTY SPRINKLES (OR LIGHT UPSLOPE RAIN), WITH A MORE
PRONOUNCED AREA OF LIGHT RAIN LIKELY DEVELOPING IN THE VICINITY
OF SOUTHERN MARYLAND THROUGH THIS EVENING AS FRONTOGENESIS
INCREASES AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ANY RAIN SHOULD
EXIT BY MID TO LATE EVENING, THOUGH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER LIKELY
LINGERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY STRUGGLE TO RISE MUCH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
STEADILY FALLING TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC MONDAY
BEFORE LIFTING INTO NEW ENGLAND MONDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH BRIEFLY
IN A FAVORABLE POSITION, THE HIGH WILL BE STEADILY RETREATING
HEADING INTO TUESDAY'S PRECIPITATION EVENT.
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL LIFT UP OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST AND EVENTUALLY TOWARD NEW ENGLAND HEADING INTO
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR WILL RESULT
IN PRECIPITATION BEGINNING AS A WINTRY MIX ESPECIALLY WEST OF
I-95 LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE LATEST
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND TOWARD A QUICKER ONSET TIME OF
PRECIPITATION DUE TO A FASTER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE/SOMEWHAT
FLATTER LOW TRACK. THE SOUTHEAST EXTENT OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION
AS WELL AS SPECIFIC TIMING OF CHANGEOVER AND AMOUNTS REMAIN
UNCERTAIN GIVEN THE TRANSIENT COLD AIR AND RESIDUAL SPREAD IN
THE TRACK OF THE LOW. AREAS IN THE VICINITY OF NORTHERN AND
WESTERN MARYLAND WOULD BE AT GREATEST RISK FOR ACCUMULATING
SNOW, WITH THOSE IN EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA INTO THE SHENANDOAH
VALLEY MOST AT RISK FOR ICE. BUT AGAIN, THE DETAILS REMAIN A
BIT FUZZY AT THIS JUNCTURE.
IN TERMS OF SPECIFIC GUIDANCE, THE ECMWF/EC-AIFS REMAIN
CONSISTENTLY ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE,
WITH THE NAM12/ICON ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE. THE GFS AND CMC ARE
ROUGHLY IN BETWEEN, THOUGH THE CMC GUIDANCE IS NOTABLY COLDER
WITH THE RESIDUAL WEDGE RESULTING IN MUCH MORE ICE. OVERALL,
GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE SLOWLY TRENDING TOWARD THE MEAN WITH A
SLIGHT BIAS TOWARD A FASTER/FLATTER LOW TRACK.
GIVEN THAT THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE FIRST WINTRY PRECIPITATION
EVENT OF THE SEASON FOR MUCH OF THE AREA, AND COMING OFF THE
HEELS OF ONE OF THE BUSIEST TRAVEL WEEKENDS OF THE YEAR, IT IS
PRUDENT TO CHECK BACK FOR THE LATEST AT WEATHER.GOV/LWX/WINTER.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS ON WEDNESDAY,
THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE THROUGH THURSDAY. DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S
TO LOW 40S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 20S. A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT, AND THAT COULD BRING SOME UPSLOPE
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. A VERY COLD AIRMASS SETTLES OVER THE REGION
FRIDAY INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND. THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS DROP TO
THE TEENS IN MOST LOCATIONS, AND HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE ONLY FORECAST
TO BE IN THE 30S. A PERIOD OF WINTRY WEATHER IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS SOUTH
OF THE AREA. CURRENT ENSEMBLE LOW TRACKS INDICATE THE SYSTEM COULD
BE OVER THE CAROLINAS TO THE VA TIDEWATER.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ANY RESIDUAL LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES SHOULD DEPART EAST OF THE
TAF SITES THIS EVENING LEAVING ABUNDANT VFR CLOUDS IN ITS WAKE
AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES. TRANSIENT LOWER CIGS SHOULD LIFT
THROUGH 21Z (MOSTLY AFFECTING KCHO). WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SW TO
NW 22Z-01Z WITH GUSTS OF 15-20 KTS (AT LEAST OCCASIONAL)
LINGERING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. A FEW HIGHER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE
MID TO LATE EVENING IMMEDIATELY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. WINDS
THEN TURN MORE NORTHERLY WITH JUST A FEW MID/HIGH CLOUDS MONDAY.
THE TREND IS FOR PRECIPITATION TO MOVE IN QUICKER MONDAY NIGHT,
PARTICULARLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. A WINTRY MIX IS MOST LIKELY NEAR
KMRB (SN/PL) AND KCHO (PL/ZR), THOUGH A BRIEF MIX IS POSSIBLE
INTO THE METROS (ESPECIALLY KIAD) EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE
TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM QUICKLY TO SUPPORT PLAIN RAIN IN THE
METROS TUESDAY MORNING, AND KCHO TOWARD LATE MORNING. KMRB MAY
HOLD ONTO WINTRY PRECIP WELL INTO TUESDAY DEPENDING ON LOW TRACK.
PRECIPITATION WILL EXIT QUICKLY HEADING INTO TUESDAY EVENING.
GIVEN THE PATTERN, A PERIOD OF IFR IS LIKELY EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTHEAST WINDS LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WILL BECOME NORTHWEST LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATE
PART OF THE WEEK.
MARINE
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL TURN NORTHWEST HEADING INTO THIS EVENING
WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS LIKELY THROUGH THE NIGHT. A FEW
GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING IMMEDIATELY IN
THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT, BUT CONFIDENCE WAS NOT NEARLY THERE
FOR A GALE WARNING. CAN'T TOTALLY RULE OUT AN SMW OR TWO. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO NORTH, EAST, THEN SOUTHEAST LATER MONDAY MORNING
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AT LIGHTER SPEEDS. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE SHIFTING TO
NORTHWEST AND INCREASING POSSIBLY TO GALE FORCE FOR PORTIONS OF
THE WATERS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. LIGHT
RAIN THIS EVENING WILL EXIT OVERNIGHT, WITH RAIN OR A WINTRY MIX
POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY,
THEN MOVES OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. ONGOING SCA
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. SUB-SCA WINDS PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING, THEN SCA
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN AS WINDS TURN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL LEAD TO POSSIBLE BLOW OUT TIDES
STARTING MONDAY MORNING. LOW WATER LEVELS ARE POSSIBLE AT
CHESAPEAKE CITY, HAVRE DE GRACE, BALTIMORE, ANNAPOLIS, AND
SOLOMONS ISLAND. TIDAL ANOMALIES BEGIN RISING TUESDAY MORNING.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ530>532-535-
538>540.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EST
MONDAY FOR ANZ533-534-536-537-541>543.
GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
FOR ANZ533-534-537-541>543.
SYNOPSIS...DHOF/CJL
NEAR TERM...DHOF
SHORT TERM...DHOF
LONG TERM...KRR
AVIATION...DHOF/KRR
MARINE...DHOF/KRR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...LWX
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