515
FXUS61 KLWX 031400
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
900 AM EST WED DEC 3 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD, DRY AIRMASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE MID- ATLANTIC THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A PAIR OF CLIPPER- LIKE SYSTEMS MAY
AFFECT THE AREA HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
STRATOCU REMAIN PERSISTENT OVER WESTERN MD AND EASTERN WV
ROUGHLY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE/CATOCTINS AND NORTH OF US-50.
THESE CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH MIDDAY AS DRIER
AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION.
A BROAD AREA OF COLD, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD TODAY.
MAINLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED AREAWIDE THIS AFTERNOON. NW
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE DAY AS SFC RIDGING BUILDS
IN, EVENTUALLY BECOMING WEST TO SOUTH BY NIGHTFALL.
HIGHS WILL BE WELL BELOW AVERAGE WITH 20S IN THE MTNS AND UPPER
30S TO LOW 40S ELSEWHERE. COLD TONIGHT UNDER THE HIGH AS THE
WINDS GO CALM. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID 20S, THOUGH TEENS
POSSIBLE IN THE COLDER LOCALES AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
A MOISTURE STARVED, REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
AREA THURSDAY. THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE IS LIKELY DRY FOR MOST
OUTSIDE THE ALLEGHENIES WHERE SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. MODEL
OUTPUT QPF IS GENERALLY 0.05-0.1", BUT GIVEN THE SLRS OF ~15:1,
THIS COULD RESULT IN A FLUFFY COATING TO INCH OR TWO OF SNOW.
GIVEN THE TIMING IS LIKELY JUST AFTER SUNRISE, THE MORNING
COMMUTE COULD BE IMPACTED. TO THE EAST, IT WILL BECOME BLUSTERY
WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A COUPLE OF FLURRIES INTO
THE I-81 CORRIDOR.
THURSDAY NIGHT IS THE FORECAST TO BE THE COLDEST TEMPS OF THE
EARLY WINTER SEASON THUS FAR. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS FOR
MOST, WITH LOWER 20S NEAR AND EAST OF I-95, AND IN THE LEE OF
THE BLUE RIDGE IN CENTRAL VIRGINIA. THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF
THE ALLEGHENIES MAY DIP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. WIND WILL BE
LIGHT, 5 MPH OR LESS OUT OF THE NORTH EXCEPT PERHAPS UP TO 10
MPH AT TIMES ATOP THE HIGHEST PEAKS. THEREFORE, WIND CHILLS WILL
NOT BE MUCH OF A FACTOR EXCEPT AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS WHERE
WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO ARE LIKELY.
DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT OF A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
RETREATS OFFSHORE. UNCERTAINTIES ARISE IN HOW FAR NORTH THE
PRECIPITATION WILL MAKE IT. ALMOST ALL ENSEMBLE AND
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE HAS ENOUGH COLD AIR IN PLACE TO FAVOR ALL
SNOW IN OUR FA SHOULD MOISTURE MAKE IT THIS FAR NORTH. THERE ARE
A FEW OUTLIERS THAT HAVE RAIN ACROSS THE FAR S OF THE FA. FWIW,
SNOW AND ICE HAS TRENDED UP SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
RUNS. WHILE AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO GENERALLY BE LIGHT (AN INCH
OR TWO, PERHAPS THREE SHOULD A HIGHER END SOLUTION VERIFY), THE
NORTHWARD SHIFT IS NOTABLE. LOOKING AT CLUSTERS FEATURING THE
GREATEST VARIANCE (EOF) REGARDING AMPLITUDE DOES SUGGEST
ADDITIONAL NORTHWARD EXPANSION IS POSSIBLE. JUST SOMETHING TO
KEEP IN MIND.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING PIVOTS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGHOUT
THE LONG TERM, LEADING TO DAILY PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. SATURDAY WILL BE THE DRIEST DAY THROUGHOUT THE
LONG TERM PERIOD, WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES ISOLATED TO THE
ALLEGHENIES AND SOUTHERN MARYLAND. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN
DRY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NEARBY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE IN THE 30S AND 40S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING INTO THE 20S FOR
MOST.
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS PERSIST SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS
TROUGHING PIVOTS OVERHEAD AND MULTIPLE FRONTS TRACK ACROSS THE
REGION. WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAINING LOW, PRIMARILY DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 30S AND
40S EACH DAY WITH HIGHEST ELEVATIONS STAYING IN THE 20S. OVERNIGHT
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE TEENS TO 20S.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
MAINLY VFR CLOUDS (FEW OR SCT) ARE ANTICIPATED AT THE TAF
SITES, WITH A GENERAL CLEARING TREND EXPECTED. HOWEVER, MVFR
CIGS ARE CLOSE TO KMRB BUT SHOULD GENERALLY LIFT AND SCATTER
THROUGH MIDDAY. MEANWHILE, THE RAP/HRRR THIS MORNING HAVE BEEN
SHOWING A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING OVER THE METROS THIS
AFTERNOON; THERE IS NOT MUCH SUPPORT FROM OTHER GUIDANCE, BUT
GIVEN THIN STRATOCU CAN OFTEN BE MORE WIDESPREAD THAN MOST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS, CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE IT OUT. WILL HANDLE
WITH A FEW025 IN THE 15Z AMDS AND MONITOR TRENDS FOR 18Z TAFS.
OTHERWISE, CLOUD BASES BETWEEN FL045-FL060 CAN BE EXPECTED AS
WINDS GRADUALLY SHIFT TO MORE OF A WEST TO SOUTHWEST HEADING BY
THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVERHEAD WILL CAUSE LIGHT
TO CALM WINDS TONIGHT. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATE AT NIGHT.
A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY
RESULTING IN AN UPTICK IN VFR STRATOCU AND WINDS WHICH MAY GUST
20 TO 25 KNOTS OUT OF THE WEST TO NORTHWEST. WINDS WILL ABATE
AND SKIES WILL CLEAR THURSDAY NIGHT AND TURN TO OUT OF THE NORTH.
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR SOUTH. LOW
CEILINGS AND WINTRY PRECIPITATION MAY BE POSSIBLE DURING THAT TIME.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH ON FRIDAY.
LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS ON SATURDAY SHIFT TO NORTHERLY ON SUNDAY. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BOTH DAYS.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVERHEAD WILL CAUSE WINDS TO BECOME
LIGHTER AND SHIFT TO OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN AN UPTICK IN WINDS AND SUBSEQUENT
SCA POTENTIAL.
SUB-SCA LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS.
NORTHWEST WINDS ON SATURDAY SHIFT TO NORTHERLY ON SUNDAY. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA BOTH DAYS.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ533-
534-537-543.
SYNOPSIS...DHOF/CPB
NEAR TERM...DHOF/CPB
SHORT TERM...DHOF/CPB
LONG TERM...AVS
AVIATION...AVS/DHOF/CPB
MARINE...AVS/DHOF/CPB
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