002
FXUS61 KLWX 152002
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
302 PM EST MON DEC 15 2025
SYNOPSIS
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CHESAPEAKE BAY WILL MOVE EAST BY
TUESDAY. MILDER TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE WAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS MIDWEEK. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE, FOLLOWED BY GUSTY WINDS AND COLDER TEMPERATURES ONCE
AGAIN LATE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CHESAPEAKE BAY HAS ALLOWED FOR WINDS TO
DIMINISH A LOT COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AND EARLY THIS MORNING.
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE TONIGHT
WITH WIDESPREAD TEENS AND LOWER 20S.
A THICKENING CLOUD MASS IN THE MID-LEVELS AND UPPER LEVELS HAS
EVOLVED THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL LINGER INTO EARLY EVENING.
ALTHOUGH WE CAN'T RULE OUR A FLURRY OR TWO ACROSS CENTRAL
MARYLAND AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA, NEARLY ALL AREAS WILL BE DRY AND
VERY COLD.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING TO THE EAST AND AWAY FROM THE
REGION TUESDAY. A SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHERLY WIND WILL DEVELOP AND
EVENTUALLY BRING NORTHWARD SOME MILDER AIR AND HIGHER DEWPOINT
TEMPERATURES, BUT NOT UNTIL WEDNESDAY. UNTIL THEN AND THROUGH
THE DAY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT, ARCTIC AIR WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEARLY 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL ONLY REACH THE
MIDDLE 30S TO LOWER 40S, WHILE WE CAN EXPECT TUESDAY NIGHT'S
TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S. AS FOR
WEDNESDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE TO
START THE DAY, BUT AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD QUICKLY
BRING OUR AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES UP TO NEAR AVERAGE WITH DRY
CONDITIONS. HIGHS WEDNESDAY MIDDLE 40S NORTH TO LOWER 50S SOUTH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE MIDDLE 20S.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THURSDAY WILL START OUT DRY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS
OFFSHORE. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL USHER IN WARMER TEMPERATURES AND
INCREASED MOISTURE, YIELDING INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S (40S MTNS). A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO CANADA WILL PUSH
MULTIPLE FRONTS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. RAIN MOVES INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A SOAKING,
BENEFICIAL RAINFALL EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE
IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S WITH THOSE IN THE MOUNTAINS DROPPING INTO
THE 20S. A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
MORNING WITH A SECONDARY FRONT PUSHING THROUGH DURING THE DAY.
AS A RESULT, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 30S AND 40S WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S ON FRIDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED BOTH DAYS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 30S AND 40S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 30S
AS TEMPERATURES MODERATE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN FOR THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST.
AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY AND VERY COLD CONDITIONS TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING, BECOMING
SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT. REMAINING LIGHT AND SOUTHERLY TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY 5 TO 10 KNOTS
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF SHIFT TO
NORTHWEST WITH A PASSING DRY WEAK FRONT. FOR THE MOST PART, WE
CAN EXPECT GRADUAL WARMING TEMPERATURES WITH A SOUTHERLY WIND
AHEAD OF MIDWEEK FRONT.
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS A FRONT
APPROACHES THE TERMINALS WITH RESTRICTIONS LIKELY DURING
PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS GUST 15 TO 25 KNOTS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT. RESTRICTIONS LINGER
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.
MARINE
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. SCA CONDITIONS COULD
EVOLVE TUESDAY OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE EAST AND A FRONT WELL TO THE WEST THAT COULD ENHANCE A
SOUTHERLY FLOW.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY BEGINNING THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AS SOUTHERLY WINDS GUST 20 TO 30 KNOTS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY FRIDAY MORNING AND ARE EXPECTED TO
STAY ABOVE SCA CRITERIA THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE
DIMINISHING.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MDZ008.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ530>532-535-536-538>540.
SYNOPSIS...KLW
NEAR TERM...KLW
SHORT TERM...KLW
LONG TERM...AVS
AVIATION...AVS/KLW
MARINE...AVS/KLW
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