193
FXUS61 KLWX 160843
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
343 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2025
SYNOPSIS
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TODAY. MILDER TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ON THE WAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THURSDAY.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT. SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, FOLLOWED
BY GUSTY WINDS AND COLDER TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN LATE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING TO THE EAST AND AWAY FROM THE
REGION TODAY. HOWEVER, ARCTIC AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEARLY 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE TODAY AND
TONIGHT, AS THERE WILL BE A BIT OF A DELAY IN THE ARRIVAL OF
WARMER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE MIDDLE 30S TO
LOWER 40S, WHILE WE CAN EXPECT LOWS TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING/
A QUICK-MOVING AND POWERFUL SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE BY TO OUR NORTH
ON WEDNESDAY. AFTER A COLD START TO THE DAY, WINDS WILL SHIFT
OUT OF THE SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE SITS OFFSHORE. EXPECT HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY IN THE MIDDLE 40S NORTH TO LOWER 50S SOUTH. WEDNESDAY
NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE MIDDLE 20S ONCE AGAIN.
THURSDAY WILL START OUT DRY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS
OFFSHORE. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL USHER IN WARMER TEMPERATURES AND
INCREASED MOISTURE, YIELDING INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S (40S MTNS). WINDS WILL BE QUITE GUSTY IN
THE AFTERNOON, REACHING SPEEDS OF AROUND 20 TO 25 MPH (CLOSER TO
35 MPH ON THE RIDGES).
A POWERFUL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST OUT OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. A
POWERFUL SURFACE LOW WILL ACCOMPANY THIS TROUGH, MOVING OUT OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. A POWERFUL COLD
FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC THURSDAY NIGHT AS THIS UPPER TROUGH TAKES ON A NEGATIVE
TILT. A LINE OF SHOWER, AND PERHAPS EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS, IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT AS A RESULT. THIS LINE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS WILL
HAVE PLENTY OF SHEAR TO WORK WITH, OWING TO 70-80 KTS OF
700-850MB FLOW. AS IS ALWAYS THE CASE WITH THESE TYPES OF
SYSTEMS HOWEVER, THE BIGGEST QUESTION WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF
AVAILABLE INSTABILITY. MODEL GUIDANCE IS REALLY STRUGGLING TO
BRING ANY CAPE INTO OUR AREA, OWING TO A LACK OF SUBSTANTIAL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE SOUTH AND EAST. THIS IS LIKELY DUE
TO THE TRANSIENT NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM, NOT ALLOWING FOR MUCH
TIME TO TRANSPORT HIGHER DEW POINTS INTO OUR REGION. WITHOUT
INSTABILITY, THINK WE STRUGGLE TO GET MUCH MORE THAN A COUPLE
LINES OF GUSTY SHOWERS THURSDAY EVENING INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER, THE 00Z NAM THAT CAME IN LAST EVENING ACTUALLY
HAS SOME INSTABILITY WORKING ITS WAY INTO AREAS ALONG/EAST OF
I-95 IN SOUTHERN MD EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, LARGELY THANKS TO A
SURGE OF 60+ DEGREE DEW POINTS. THE NAM IS OFTEN OVERZEALOUS
WITH MOISTURE, SO WOULD NOT PUT A LOT OF STOCK IN THAT SOLUTION,
BUT I LIKE TO THINK OF IT AS A WORST CASE SCENARIO. IF WE DO
GET THE 400 J/KG OF CAPE OR SO THAT THE NAM DEPICTS, PAIRED
WITH 60+ KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR, COULD SEE A THREAT FOR SOME
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO COULD NOT BE RULED
OUT. AGAIN, THIS IS A LOW-PROBABILITY SOLUTION, BUT SOMETHING
WORTH NOTING.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ALONG THE ALLEGHENY MOUNTAINS, UPSLOPE SNOW WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY,
ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HOW LONG IT WILL PERSIST.
EVEN THOUGH IT WILL BE COOLER THAN PRECEDING DAYS, AN OVERALL
ZONAL UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL BEHIND THE FRONT. WESTERLY WINDS WILL ALSO BE QUITE
GUSTY FRIDAY.
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON
SATURDAY WITH CONTINUED SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT FRONT IS
SLATED TO APPROACH ON SUNDAY, ALTHOUGH IT'S UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH
MOISTURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH IT. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
MAY FOLLOW FOR MONDAY. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT ENSEMBLE SPREAD
INCREASES DURING THIS PERIOD, BUT OVERALL THERE SHOULDN'T BE ANY
EXTREMES IN TEMPERATURES OR PRECIPITATION.
AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY AND VERY COLD CONDITIONS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING, BECOMING SOUTHERLY
OVERNIGHT. REMAINING LIGHT AND SOUTHERLY TODAY AND TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY 5 TO 10 KNOTS WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF SHIFT TO NORTHWEST WITH
A PASSING DRY WEAK FRONT. FOR THE MOST PART, WE CAN EXPECT
GRADUAL WARMING TEMPERATURES WITH A SOUTHERLY WIND AHEAD OF
MIDWEEK FRONT.
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS A FRONT
APPROACHES THE TERMINALS WITH RESTRICTIONS LIKELY DURING
PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS GUST 15 TO 25 KNOTS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
VFR CONDITIONS RETURN FRIDAY BY MID-MORNING BUT WITH GUSTY WEST
WINDS. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES ON
SATURDAY.
MARINE
AN SCA CONTINUES FOR THE SOUTHERN WATERS DUE TO GUSTY SW WINDS,
WHICH CONTINUES THROUGH 7 AM THIS MORNING. THEREAFTER, SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. SCA CONDITIONS COULD EVOLVE
TUESDAY OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST
AND A FRONT WELL TO THE WEST THAT COULD ENHANCE A SOUTHERLY
FLOW.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY BEGINNING THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AS SOUTHERLY WINDS GUST 20 TO 30 KNOTS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
POST-FRONTAL WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE GUSTY FRIDAY. SCAS ARE LIKELY
AND GALES ARE POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL DROP OFF BY EARLY SATURDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE PASSES, BUT SOUTHERLY CHANNELING MAY INTRODUCE
ADVISORY CONDITIONS AGAIN ALONG THE BAY BY SATURDAY NIGHT.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ532>534-537-540-541-543.
SYNOPSIS...CJL
NEAR TERM...CJL
SHORT TERM...CJL
LONG TERM...ADS/CJL
AVIATION...ADS/CJL
MARINE...ADS/CJL
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