362
FXUS61 KLWX 170215
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
915 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE DELMARVA WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY FROM
THE EAST COAST. MILDER TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH THURSDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE, FOLLOWED BY GUSTY WINDS AND COLDER TEMPERATURES ONCE
AGAIN LATE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ASIDE FROM SOME NEAR TERM UPDATES TO MATCH CURRENT OBS, NO
CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST GIVEN QUIESCENT CONDITIONS IN
THE NEAR TERM. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
HIGH PRESSURE, MOVING TO THE EAST, WILL ALLOW FOR A SOUTHERLY
FLOW TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE NIGHT TONIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS WILL
EXIST. TEMPERATURES HAVE BARELY MADE IT TO 40 DEGREES IN MOST
PLACES. THESE NUMBERS ARE STILL BELOW AVERAGE BY ABOUT 7
DEGREES. TONIGHT'S TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE BELOW AVERAGE BUT
NOT AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE MIDDLE 20S.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE OVER US WILL WEAKEN AS A MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE
PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION BUT BE BARELY
NOTICEABLE CONSIDERING IT WILL BE A DRY FRONT. THE WIND
DIRECTION CHANGE FROM SOUTHERLY TO NORTHERLY FOR A COUPLE OF
HOURS MAY BE THE RECOGNIZABLE THING WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
BEHIND THE FRONT, A SECOND AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. HIGHS WEDNESDAY
WILL TOP OUT IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S IN THE NORTH AND THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S IN THE SOUTH. THESE ARE MILDER THAN RECENT
DAYS. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE A FEW DEGREES MILDER
AND NEAR AVERAGE FOR MID- DECEMBER.
THE SECOND HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST BY MIDDAY THURSDAY TO
MAKE ROOM FOR A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN VIRGINIA
AND NORTH-CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA TO PUSH NORTHWARD MIDDAY
THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. DURING THE SAME TIME THAT
THIS WARM FRONT IS PUSHING NORTH, A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE SHOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. ADDITIONAL WARMTH AND MOISTURE WILL ALSO
BE STREAMING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
JUST BEHIND THE ADVANCING WARM FRONT. ANY PRE-WARM FRONTAL RAIN
SHOWERS THAT DO DEVELOP ACROSS OUR AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE OR
TWO OF THUNDER. IT APPEARS THAT MOST OF THE FREQUENT SHOWERS AND
ANY THUNDER WOULD BE MORE PRONE TO DEVELOP BEHIND THE WARM
FRONT AND AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING AFFILIATED COLD FRONT. THE
COLD FRONT COULD MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE THURSDAY EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL INCREASE SOME BUT BECAUSE OF THE SLOW EROSION OF THE STRONG
INVERSION LEADING UP TO ADDITIONAL CONVECTION THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING, WIND GUSTS WON'T BE TOO STRONG.
THERE WILL BE STRONG WINDS ABOUT 5000 FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE OF
70 TO 80 KNOTS, BUT THE INVERSION IS EXPECTED TO PROHIBIT OR
DELAY THESE WINDS FROM REACHING THE SURFACE. PERHAPS SOME SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY
EVENING WILL BRING SOME OF THE STRONGER WINDS TO THE SURFACE.
DURING THE LATE THURSDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY, GUSTY SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS NEAR
SOUTHERN MARYLAND AND THE CHESAPEAKE BAY COULD BE ESCORTED
EASTWARD WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT,
GUSTY CHILLY WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WILL ENSUE AND
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO DIVE DOWNWARD BACK INTO THE ARCTIC FREEZE.
WINDS COULD GUST 30 TO 40 MPH WITH MUCH HIGHER WINDS OVER THE
OPEN CHESAPEAKE BAY.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION TO END OUT THE WEEK WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES DECREASING THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY. UPSLOPE
SNOW SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH THE REST OF
THE AREA DRYING OUT. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVERHEAD ON SATURDAY WITH
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AREAWIDE.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS CANADA SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TRACKING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA ON SUNDAY. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST WITH THE
EXCEPTION BEING UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE ALLEGHENIES. UPSLOPE
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
BUILD OVER THE REGION.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL OSCILLATE BETWEEN THE 50S AND 40S EACH DAY
WITH HIGHER ELEVATIONS DIPPING INTO THE 30S. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 20S AND TEENS EACH NIGHT WITH THE
EXCEPTION BEING SATURDAY NIGHT, WHERE LOWS WILL BE IN THE 30S.
AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
MODEST LLJ DEVELOPS NEAR DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY WHICH COULD RESULT
IN SOME LLWS ACROSS TERMINALS. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ADD
GIVEN WE ARE ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. JUST SOMETHING TO
MONITOR. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST
5 TO 10 KNOTS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE COULD BE A
BRIEF SHIFT TO NORTHWEST WITH A PASSING DRY WEAK FRONT. FOR THE
MOST PART, WE CAN EXPECT GRADUAL WARMING TEMPERATURES WITH A
SOUTHERLY WIND AHEAD OF MIDWEEK FRONT.
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS A FRONT
APPROACHES THE TERMINALS WITH RESTRICTIONS LIKELY DURING
PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS GUST 15 TO 25 KNOTS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
VFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TERMINALS ON
FRIDAY WITH GUSTS NEAR OR EXCEEDING 30 KNOTS. WINDS DIMINISH QUICKLY
FRIDAY EVENING BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT OVERNIGHT. SOUTH WINDS GUST 15
TO 20 KNOTS ON SATURDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN ON
SATURDAY.
MARINE
SCA CONDITIONS COULD EVOLVE WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
EAST AND A FRONT WELL TO THE WEST THAT COULD ENHANCE A SOUTHERLY
FLOW.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY BEGINNING THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AS SOUTHERLY WINDS GUST 20 TO 30 KNOTS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL YIELD HIGH END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
ACROSS THE WATERS. IN THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE WATERS, WINDS
NEAR GALE CRITERIA FRIDAY MORNING. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
AREA, WINDS DIMINISH FRIDAY EVENING, BECOMING LIGHT BY SATURDAY
MORNING. SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE TO SCA CRITERIA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...KLW
NEAR TERM...KLW/CPB
SHORT TERM...KLW/CJL
LONG TERM...AVS
AVIATION...AVS/KLW/CPB
MARINE...AVS/KLW/CPB
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