863
FXUS61 KLWX 030210
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
910 PM EST FRI JAN 2 2026
SYNOPSIS
AS HIGH PRESSURE EXITS THE REGION, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH SATURDAY, BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES DURING
THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING/
A SEASONBLY DRY AIR MASS IS IN PLACE AS NOTED BY THE 00Z IAD
SOUNDING. CURRENT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RUN JUST SHORT OF
0.30 INCHES, ACCOMPANIED BY MAINLY WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS IN
THE COLUMN. AS A SYSTEM TRACKS TOWARD THE MID-SOUTH, HIGH CIRRUS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT. COLD AND DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER
TEENS TO MID 20S.
SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
VERY LITTLE HAS CHANGED WITH EXPECTATIONS FOR WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY. THE
SYSTEM WON'T REALLY PHASE WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM COMING
IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES UNTIL BOTH ARE WELL OFFSHORE. THIS
COUPLED WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC WILL KEEP
MARGINALLY COLD AIR IN PLACE, BUT MOSTLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE AREA, WHILE MOST OF THE QPF WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHERN
HALF WHERE TEMPS ARE MOSTLY ABOVE FREEZING. THEN AGAIN, QPF IS
PROGGED TO BE MEAGER (A FEW HUNDREDTHS AT BEST). AS A RESULT,
MOST OF THE GUIDANCE IS POINTING TOWARD A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX
SOUTH OF I-66/US-48 SATURDAY AFTERNOON, BECOMING A MOSTLY LIGHT
SNOW EAST OF US-15 AFTER SUNSET. LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION
IS FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
HIGHS SATURDAY WILL PUSH BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S WITH LOWS
FALLING BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S. WIND CHILLS SATURDAY NIGHT
WILL FALL BACK INTO THE MID TEENS AND LOW 20S FOR MOST WITH SINGLE
DIGITS OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY THAT BRINGS
DRY AND GUSTY CONDITIONS TO END THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING
WINDS BACK OUT OF THE NW WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION RESULTING IN COOLER
HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S. FAVORING A MIX OF SUN AND
CLOUDS GIVEN CAA.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AT THIS TIME, WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED IN THE
LONG TERM PERIOD.
THE MAJORITY OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED
BY A NEARLY ZONAL TO WEAK RIDGING UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSING THROUGH THE FLOW MONDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. BASED ON MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE, THE BEST CHANCE
FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IN THE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY PERIOD
WILL BE THE POTENTIAL CLIPPER ON WEDNESDAY. IF PRECIPITATION OCCURS
ON WEDNESDAY, IT WILL LIKELY FALL AS RAIN AS ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
THE NEAR ZONAL/WEAK RIDGING PATTERN STARTS TO BREAK DOWN TOWARD THE
END OF NEXT WEEK WITH A SHORTWAVE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE REGION
DURING THE THURSDAY TO FRIDAY TIME WINDOW. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS WAVE, BUT THERE REMAINS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY
ON THE OVERALL COVERAGE/MAGNITUDE OF ANY PRECIPITATION THAT OCCURS.
GENERALLY, ANY PRECIPITATION THAT OCCURS IN THE LONG TERM SHOULD BE
BENEFICIAL IN NATURE.
AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE PASSING SOUTH OF THE REGION SATURDAY COULD BRING LIGHT
SNOW TO IAD/DCA, AND POSSIBLY TO CHO/BWI/MTN DURING THE EVENING
HOURS. NO ACCUMULATING SNOW IS FORECAST AT THIS TIME. VFR
CONDITIONS RETURN SUNDAY WITH A COLD FRONT SWITCHING WINDS TO
THE NW AND GUSTS TO 15 KTS.
VFR CONDITIONS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON BOTH MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.
MARINE
NO SCA CALIBER WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. EXPECT AN
UPTICK TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE, WITH NORTHERLY
WINDS INCREASING SLIGHTLY TO 10-15 KNOTS. WINDS SUBSIDE SATURDAY
WITH A LIGHT NORTHERLY DIRECTION. THEN, ANOTHER PERIOD OF
ELEVATED WINDS LOOKS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS NORTHERLY
CHANNELING INCREASES BEHIND A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. CURRENT
FORECAST HAS WINDS JUST BELOW SCA CRITERIA.
SUB-SCA LEVEL SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WATERS ON BOTH
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...BRO/CPB/KRR
NEAR TERM...BRO/CPB
SHORT TERM...CPB/KRR
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...BRO/JMG/CPB
MARINE...JMG/CPB
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page