111
FXUS61 KLWX 030743
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
243 AM EST SAT JAN 3 2026
SYNOPSIS
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH TODAY, BRINGING
THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES
DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY DURING THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER AND THROUGH THE AREA TODAY, AND DOES
HELP TO MAINTAIN COLDER TEMPERATURES AS HIGHS ONLY REACH THE MID TO
UPPER 30S. A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. WILL PASS BY WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND MOVE OFFSHORE THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS VIRTUALLY NO QPF OVER THE
AREA DUE TO THE SUPPRESSED NATURE OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM LOW, AND NO
PHASING OCCURRING WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM UNTIL BOTH ARE
OFFSHORE. PRECIP CHANCES TODAY HAVE TRENDED EVEN LOWER, NOW ONLY AT
ABOUT 15 PCT IN CENTRAL VA AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. MOST AREAS
ARE GOING TO REMAIN DRY WITH A FEW FLURRIES / SPRINKLES POSSIBLE AT
TIMES THIS AFTERNOON TO EVENING. DRY AND COLD TONIGHT AS LOWS SETTLE
IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
A DRY COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE
HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE TO START NEXT WEEK, USHERING IN SOUTHERLY FLOW
TO THE REGION. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WITH
WINDS GUSTING AROUND 15-20 MPH EACH AFTERNOON. COOLER HIGHS ON
SUNDAY IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS GIVEN CAA
BEHIND THE FRONT. TEMPS START TO MODERATE A BIT MONDAY, BUT STILL
GOING TO BE COOL IN THE 30S TO MID 40S.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A FAST ZONAL FLOW PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CONUS
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW AN AIRMASS OF PACIFIC
ORIGIN TO SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE COUNTRY. LOCALLY, THIS WILL
LEAD TO A VERY NOTICEABLE WARMUP, AND MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS.
A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ZONAL FLOW WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. MOST OF
THE FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY OFF TO
OUR NORTH, SO NOT MUCH RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MAKE IT TO THE EAST OF
THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER, SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE ALLEGHENIES
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THE FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS WILL BEGIN TO AMPLIFY A BIT BY
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS A TROUGH DIGS OVER THE WESTERN US, DRAWING
AN ANTECEDENT CUTOFF LOW NORTHEASTWARD FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA TOWARD
THE PLAINS, AND THEN EVENTUALLY THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL LEAD TO
RISING HEIGHTS DOWNSTREAM, WITH A RIDGE BUILDING ALONG THE EAST
COAST. BY THIS TIME, TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE 50S, IF NOT
60S DURING THE DAY, AND ONLY DROP BACK INTO THE 40S OVERNIGHT.
DEPENDING ON THE ULTIMATE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM, SOME SHOWERS MAY BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, BUT NEARLY ALL
ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS KEEP ANY RAIN ON THE LIGHTER SIDE.
AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY IS GOING TO
BRING IN SOME LOWER CLOUDS, BUT STILL REMAINING VFR. SOME FLURRIES
ARE GOING TO BE POSSIBLE AT CHO DURING THE DAY, THEN LATER ON AT
IAD/DCA/BWI/MTN IN THE EVENING. HOWEVER, CHANCES ARE VERY LOW AND
MOST TERMINALS WON'T SEE ANYTHING MORE THAN A FEW FLAKES. NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. GIVEN SNOW CHANCES ARE VERY LOW AT 10-
15PCT, NOT ADDING ANY MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. BEYOND THAT,
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE SOUTH ON TUESDAY, AND THEN OUT OF THE
WEST ON WEDNESDAY.
MARINE
FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT WITH LIGHT,
VARIABLE WINDS AROUND 5-8 KNOTS. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
EARLY ON SUNDAY, WITH SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. WINDS DIMINISH BELOW SCA LEVELS SUNDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN
LOW THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
WATERS. SOUTHERLY CHANNELING IS POSSIBLE MONDAY EVENING OVER THE
OPEN WATERS OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY THAT COULD RESULT IN NEAR SCA
WINDS.
SUB-SCA LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WATERS ON BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE SOUTH ON TUESDAY, AND
THEN WEST ON WEDNESDAY.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...KRR
NEAR TERM...KRR
SHORT TERM...KRR
LONG TERM...KJP
AVIATION...KRR/KJP
MARINE...KRR/KJP
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