867
FXUS61 KLWX 031928
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
228 PM EST SAT JAN 3 2026
SYNOPSIS
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH TODAY, BRINGING
THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SNOW FLURRIES. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS
SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES DURING THE EARLY TO
MIDDLE PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
LIKELY DURING THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE TONIGHT. HAVE NOT SEEN ANYTHING REPORTED ACROSS THE FA
DESPITE LIGHT ECHOES THROUGH THE DAY THUS FAR. THIS LIKELY DUE
TO DRY PROFILES SHOWN ON ACARS AND HIGH TD DEPRESSIONS. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO HAVE VERY LITTLE QPF WITH THIS SYSTEM AS WE ARE
BETWEEN STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM PIECE AND SOUTHERN STREAM
PIECE. MOST AREAS ARE GOING TO REMAIN DRY WITH A FEW FLURRIES /
SPRINKLES POSSIBLE AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON TO EVENING. DRY AND
COLD TONIGHT AS LOWS SETTLE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
NOT MUCH IN TERMS OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT, BUT
WIND GUSTS UP TO 20-25 MPH ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
SUNDAY AMIDST CAA. COOLER SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S TO LOW
40S WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TO START NEXT WEEK, USHERING IN
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE REGION. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY
AND MONDAY, WITH WINDS GUSTING AROUND 15-20 MPH EACH AFTERNOON.
TEMPS START TO MODERATE A BIT MONDAY, BUT STILL GOING TO BE
COOL IN THE 30S TO MID 40S.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AT THIS TIME, WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS UNLIKELY DURING THE
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD, BUT STRONG WINDS APPROACHING WIND
ADVISORY LEVELS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY ALONG THE HIGHER
RIDGES OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT.
A MORE RIDGING/NEAR ZONAL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS FAVORED DURING THE
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD WITH MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES BRING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE SITTING OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD
WILL LIKELY LEAD TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WHICH MEANS ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT OCCURS WILL LIKELY FALL AS RAIN. GIVEN THE
CONTINUED DROUGHT CONDITIONS, ANY PRECIPITATION THAT OCCURS WILL BE
BENEFICIAL IN NATURE, BUT LOW LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW IS LIKELY TO LIMIT
AVAILABLE MOISTURE WHICH MEANS DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO
PERSIST. HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS UNLIKELY IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD, BUT STRONGER LOW LEVEL WINDS ON WEDNESDAY MAY NECESSITATE THE
NEED FOR WIND ADVISORIES ALONG THE HIGH ELEVATIONS OF THE ALLEGHENY
FRONT.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY
BRINGING SOME LOWER CLOUDS, BUT STILL REMAINING VFR. CANNOT RULE
OUT A FEW NON-ACCUMULATING SNOW FLURRIES NEAR CHO THIS
AFTERNOON, AND THE METRO TERMINALS THIS EVENING. GIVEN SNOW
CHANCES ARE VERY LOW AT <10 PCT, NOT ADDING ANY MENTION IN THE
TAFS AT THIS TIME. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN SUNDAY WITH A COLD
FRONT SWITCHING WINDS TO THE NW AND GUSTS TO 15 KTS. CONTINUED
VFR CONDITIONS MONDAY WITH WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY AS HIGH
SHIFTS OFFSHORE.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE SOUTH ON TUESDAY, AND THEN OUT OF THE
WEST ON WEDNESDAY.
MARINE
FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT WITH LIGHT,
VARIABLE WINDS AROUND 5-8 KNOTS. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
EARLY ON SUNDAY, WITH SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MAIN UNCERTAINTY ON NOT ISSUING AN SCA WAS DUE
TO THE DURATION OF THE WINDS. MAY BE BEST HANDLED WITH AN MWS. WINDS
DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN LOW THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. SOUTHERLY CHANNELING IS
POSSIBLE MONDAY EVENING OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE CHESAPEAKE
BAY THAT COULD RESULT IN NEAR SCA WINDS.
SUB-SCA LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WATERS ON BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE SOUTH ON TUESDAY, AND
THEN WEST ON WEDNESDAY.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...CPB/KRR
NEAR TERM...CPB
SHORT TERM...CPB/KRR
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG/CPB
MARINE...JMG/CPB
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