866
FXUS61 KLWX 041951
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
251 PM EST SUN JAN 4 2026
SYNOPSIS
DRY CONDITIONS AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
THROUGH MONDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST TUESDAY BEFORE PASSING TO THE NORTH AND DRAGGING THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH REGION WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WARM
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE AREA. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY LEADING TO A PATTERN
SHIFT EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
NORTHWEST WINDS GUST TO 10-20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND A WEAK
COLD FRONT AMIDST CAA. THAT WILL MAKE IT FEEL RATHER CHILLY
ALONG/NORTH OF I-66/US-48 WHERE HIGHS ONLY REACH THE MID TO
UPPER 30S. TO THE SOUTH, MORE SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH
THE LOW TO MID 40S. BY THE LATE AFTERNOON, SHOULD SEE ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE ACROSS THE AREA. DRY TONIGHT AS LOWS SETTLE IN THE
LOWER 20S.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD EARLY MONDAY WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THE RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINS A STEADY WARMING
TREND THAT WILL PEAK LATER IN THE WEEK. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S
MONDAY JUMP THE 50S TO AROUND 60F ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER, SOME
RECENT GUIDANCE ESPECIALLY THE AMERICAN MODEL SUITE (NAM/GFS) IS
NOTABLY COOLER AND KEEPS THE TYPICAL WEDGE AREA IN THE 40S
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO DEVIATE FROM
NBM AT THIS TIME, BUT WORHT NOTING.
THEREAFTER, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES TUESDAY, AND THEN LIKELY PASSES WELL NORTH OF THE
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS COULD BRING SOME RAIN SHOWERS TO THE
ALLEGHENIES AND POTOMAC HIGHLANDS.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
OVERALL LOOKING AT A FAIRLY BENIGN EXTENDED PERIOD WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES AND LIMITED PRECIPITATION CHANCES HEADING INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. STILL TRACKING A PIECE OF NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT WILL EJECT NORTH AND EAST FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WITH THIS SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS SOMETIME EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING INTO WEDNESDAY MIDDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING A SLIGHT UPTICK WIND
AND CHANGE IN WIND DIRECTION. AN UPSLOPE SHOWER/SPRINKLE ALSO CANNOT
BE RULED OUT OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE REGION.
BUILDING HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS POSITIONS ITSELF OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THIS WILL
LEAD TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS. MEANWHILE, AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL EJECT OUT OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE. THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT A WARM FRONT INTO THE REGION THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW THIS BOUNDARY
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY ALLOWING THE PATTERN TO FLIP FOR THE END OF THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
BOTH FRONTS WILL BRING INCREASED CHANCES FOR RAIN TO THE REGION.
PASSING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH WIDESPREAD
RAIN EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES.
OF COURSE THERE REMAINS SUBTLE DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE GUIDANCE IN
REGARDS TO TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THE FRONT. ONE THING WE DO KNOW
IS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM WITH HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE
UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS. OVERNIGHT LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WILL HOLD STEADY IN
THE MID TO UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S (UPPER 30S MOUNTAINS).
LOOK FOR A PATTERN CHANGE COME SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. UPSLOPE RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE PREVALENT
OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH PASSING CLOUDS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS FURTHER
EAST. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL FALL BACK INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S
(UPPER 20S MOUNTAINS) WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH NO PRECIPITATION. THERE WILL BE SEVERAL PERIODS OF
MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS, BUT NO RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED. NORTHWEST
WINDS COULD GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON, THEN WINDS
TURN SOUTHERLY MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATE WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT TRACKS
THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING/MIDDAY WITH ANY SHOWER CHANCES
WEST OF THE ALLEGHENIES. WINDS SHIFT NORTHWESTERLY FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY. EVENTUALLY RETURN
FLOW ENSUES THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHICH BRINGS SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS TO THE AREA. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS THROUGH. THIS FRONT WILL BRING PASSING SHOWERS AND
INCREASED CLOUD COVER TO THE REGION. MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND
POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.
MARINE
WINDS HAVE INCREASED SOME OUT OF THE NW ACROSS THE WATERS, BUT
REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA CURRENTLY. WILL MONITOR TRENDS OVER
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS TO SEE IF A MWS IS NEEDED FOR GUSTS NEAR 20
KTS AT A SHORT DURATION.
THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND THAT ALLOWS SOUTHERLY WINDS TO
RETURN MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SOUTHERLY CHANNELING COULD RESULT IN SCA
CONDITIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST OF THE WATERS. NOT
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THIS CYCLE TO ISSUE SCAS. BEYOND THAT, SUB-
SCA WINDS ARE FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR BOTH WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. SOME SCA SOUTHERLY CHANNELING IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE WATERS. SCA CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES.
WINDS WILL TURN BACK TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST DIRECTION DURING THIS
TIME. SCA CONDITIONS WILL LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A TIGHTENED
GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...EST
NEAR TERM...CPB
SHORT TERM...CPB
LONG TERM...EST
AVIATION...CPB/EST
MARINE...CPB/EST
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