405
FXUS61 KLWX 050131
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
831 PM EST SUN JAN 4 2026
SYNOPSIS
DRY CONDITIONS AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
THROUGH MONDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST TUESDAY BEFORE PASSING TO THE NORTH AND DRAGGING THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH REGION WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WARM
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE AREA. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY LEADING TO A PATTERN
SHIFT EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS HIGH CLOUDS ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA THIS EVENING. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLOUDY
THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE
IS CENTERED ALONG/JUST TO THE WEST OF THE SPINE OF THE
APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING, AND WILL SLOWLY TRANSLATE EASTWARD
OVERNIGHT. AS THE HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD, WINDS WILL DECREASE, AND
EVENTUALLY GO CALM IN MANY LOCATIONS. THE HIGH WILL MOVE JUST
TO OUR EAST BY AROUND DAYBREAK, CAUSING WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT
OUT OF THE SOUTH VERY LATE TONIGHT. A DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK
EASTWARD FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TOWARD THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES,
BUT NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED FROM THAT SYSTEM, OTHER THAN THE
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE 20S ACROSS NEARLY THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD EARLY MONDAY WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINS A STEADY
WARMING TREND THAT WILL PEAK LATER IN THE WEEK. HIGHS IN THE 40S
TO LOW 50S MONDAY JUMP THE 50S TO AROUND 60F ON TUESDAY.
HOWEVER, SOME RECENT GUIDANCE ESPECIALLY THE AMERICAN MODEL
SUITE (NAM/GFS) IS NOTABLY COOLER AND KEEPS THE TYPICAL WEDGE
AREA IN THE 40S DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
DEVIATE FROM NBM AT THIS TIME, BUT WORTH NOTING.
THEREAFTER, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES TUESDAY, AND THEN LIKELY PASSES WELL NORTH OF THE
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS COULD BRING SOME RAIN SHOWERS TO THE
ALLEGHENIES AND POTOMAC HIGHLANDS.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
OVERALL LOOKING AT A FAIRLY BENIGN EXTENDED PERIOD WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES AND LIMITED PRECIPITATION CHANCES HEADING INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. STILL TRACKING A PIECE OF NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT WILL EJECT NORTH AND EAST FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WITH THIS SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS SOMETIME EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING INTO WEDNESDAY MIDDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING A SLIGHT UPTICK WIND
AND CHANGE IN WIND DIRECTION. AN UPSLOPE SHOWER/SPRINKLE ALSO CANNOT
BE RULED OUT OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE REGION.
BUILDING HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS POSITIONS ITSELF OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THIS WILL
LEAD TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS. MEANWHILE, AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL EJECT OUT OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE. THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT A WARM FRONT INTO THE REGION THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW THIS BOUNDARY
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY ALLOWING THE PATTERN TO FLIP FOR THE END OF THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
BOTH FRONTS WILL BRING INCREASED CHANCES FOR RAIN TO THE REGION.
PASSING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH WIDESPREAD
RAIN EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES.
OF COURSE THERE REMAINS SUBTLE DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE GUIDANCE IN
REGARDS TO TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THE FRONT. ONE THING WE DO KNOW
IS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM WITH HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE
UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS. OVERNIGHT LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WILL HOLD STEADY IN
THE MID TO UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S (UPPER 30S MOUNTAINS).
LOOK FOR A PATTERN CHANGE COME SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. UPSLOPE RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE PREVALENT
OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH PASSING CLOUDS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS FURTHER
EAST. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL FALL BACK INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S
(UPPER 20S MOUNTAINS) WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S.
AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH NO PRECIPITATION. THERE WILL BE SEVERAL PERIODS OF
MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS, BUT NO RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED. NORTHWEST
WINDS COULD GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON, THEN WINDS
TURN SOUTHERLY MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATE WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT TRACKS
THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING/MIDDAY WITH ANY SHOWER CHANCES
WEST OF THE ALLEGHENIES. WINDS SHIFT NORTHWESTERLY FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY. EVENTUALLY RETURN
FLOW ENSUES THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHICH BRINGS SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS TO THE AREA. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS THROUGH. THIS FRONT WILL BRING PASSING SHOWERS AND
INCREASED CLOUD COVER TO THE REGION. MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND
POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND THAT ALLOWS SOUTHERLY
WINDS TO RETURN MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SOUTHERLY CHANNELING COULD
RESULT IN SCA CONDITIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST OF THE
WATERS. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THIS CYCLE TO ISSUE SCAS. BEYOND
THAT, SUB- SCA WINDS ARE FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR BOTH WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. SOME SCA SOUTHERLY CHANNELING IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE WATERS. SCA CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES.
WINDS WILL TURN BACK TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST DIRECTION DURING THIS
TIME. SCA CONDITIONS WILL LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A TIGHTENED
GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...EST
NEAR TERM...KJP
SHORT TERM...CPB
LONG TERM...EST
AVIATION...CPB/EST
MARINE...CPB/EST
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page