035
FXUS61 KLWX 050727
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
227 AM EST MON JAN 5 2026
SYNOPSIS
DRY CONDITIONS AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE REGION TODAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM
THE UPPER MIDWEST TUESDAY BEFORE PASSING TO THE NORTH AND DRAGGING
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH REGION WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES
WARM THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE AREA. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY LEADING TO A
PATTERN SHIFT EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
DRY CONDITIONS TODAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING
SLIDES OFFSHORE THROUGH THE DAY. THIS CAUSES SOUTHERLY FLOW TO
DEVELOP OVER THE AREA, HELPING TO USHER IN SLIGHTLY WARMER
CONDITIONS. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON REACH THE 40S, WITH AROUND 50F
POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS OF THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY. SOUTHERLY GUSTS
AROUND 20-25 MPH ARE POSSIBLE EAST OF US-15 THIS AFTERNOON. BECOMING
MILDER TONIGHT AS LOWS SETTLE IN THE MIDDLE 30S.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
ON TUESDAY WILL PASS NORTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
AS THIS LOW MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST IT WILL DRAG AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THIS IS GOING TO BRING
SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS TO THE ALLEGHENIES AND POSSIBLY
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE,
THE REST OF THE AREA IS GOING TO REMAIN DRY. CLOUDY SKIES CONTINUE
TUESDAY, THEN MORE SUNSHINE FOR WEDNESDAY. THE BIGGEST STORY WILL BE
THE MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES THAT REACH THE 50S TUESDAY, WITH MUCH
MORE WIDESPREAD MID 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR WEDNESDAY. TUESDAY NIGHT
LOWS IN THE 40S WILL COOL BACK DOWN TO THE 30S BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ANOMALOUS UPPER RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE PATTERN THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. A STRONG 590-DM ANTICYCLONE CENTERED
NEAR CUBA WILL FLEX NORTHWARD WITH ABOVE AVERAGE HEIGHTS EXTENDING
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO EASTERN CANADA. THIS PATTERN FAVORS
MILD TEMPERATURES, PARTICULARLY IN LIGHT OF HAVING A LOW-LEVEL
SOUTHERLY WARM ADVECTION FLOW. UNDERNEATH A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN,
FORECAST HIGHS WILL RISE INTO THE 50S TO LOW 60S. CLOUDS GRADUALLY
THICKEN FROM THE WEST WITH SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY REACHING THE
ALLEGHENY FRONT OVERNIGHT. A VERY MILD NIGHT LIES AHEAD WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES HOLDING STEADY IN THE 40S WHICH IS AROUND 15 TO 20
DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY.
HEADING TO FRIDAY, A BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN ENTERS THE PICTURE
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE LIFTING
NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL PASS BY TO THE WEST ON
FRIDAY. THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION ALLOWING FOR A FURTHER WARM UP AS WIDESPREAD HIGHS RISE INTO
THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. HOWEVER, BOX-AND-WHISKER PLOTS DO SHOW MORE
SPREAD GIVEN RAIN/CLOUDS COULD DAMPEN SOME OF THIS WARMING. EXPECT
PERIODS OF RAIN THROUGH THE DAY WITH SOUTHERLY BREEZES UP TO 20 TO
25 MPH AT TIMES. THE ATMOSPHERE IS QUITE MOIST WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES RISING TO AROUND 1 TO 1.25 INCHES (AROUND 2 TO 2.5
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE AVERAGE). THE THREAT FOR RAIN PERSISTS
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MILD TEMPERATURES AGAIN IN THE 40S, WITH
MID/UPPER 30S ALONG THE ALLEGHENIES.
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, IT WILL BE A TALE OF TWO DAYS AS
TEMPERATURES COME CRASHING DOWN ON SUNDAY. A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH
DROPPING DOWN FROM WESTERN CANADA LEADS TO A NOTABLE PATTERN CHANGE
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK. THE LEADING EDGE OF HEIGHT FALLS PUSHES A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION MIDDAY SATURDAY BEFORE A REINFORCING
SECONDARY FRONT FOLLOWS IN ITS WAKE ON SUNDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH
SATURDAY WILL AGAIN BE MILD WITH SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY, TEMPERATURES
RETURN TO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S (MID 20S TO MID 30S FOR THE
MOUNTAINS). A FEW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
ALLEGHENIES AMIDST A BRISK WESTERLY WIND.
AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOME LOW
MARGINAL MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON,
OTHERWISE CIGS SHOULD REMAIN A NON-ISSUE. SOUTHERLY WINDS COULD GUST
AROUND 20 KNOTS FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THURSDAY BEFORE RAIN PUSHES
IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT. THIS LIKELY COMES WITH A LOWERING CLOUD
DECK. RAIN BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD ON FRIDAY WHICH FAVORS
RESTRICTIONS THROUGH PARTS OF THE DAY. EACH DAY WILL BRING MAINLY
SOUTHERLY WINDS WHICH COMES WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS UP TO AROUND 15 TO
20 KNOTS.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. THE RESULTING SOUTHERLY
CHANNELING OVER THE LOCAL WATERS WILL RESULT IN SEVERAL HOURS OF SCA
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON, MOSTLY BETWEEN NOON AND 6 PM. SUB-SCA
WINDS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
AREA TUESDAY EVENING, THEN MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER
PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE SOMETIME TUESDAY EVENING INTO
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
EXPECT SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ON THURSDAY WHILE STAYING BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA. HOWEVER, IT LOOKS LIKE SOUTHERLY CHANNELING
EFFECTS PICK UP ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
THAT ARRIVES ON SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED FOR THIS UPTICK IN SOUTHERLY WINDS.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EST THIS EVENING
FOR ANZ530>543.
SYNOPSIS...KRR
NEAR TERM...KRR
SHORT TERM...KRR
LONG TERM...BRO
AVIATION...KRR/BRO
MARINE...KRR/BRO
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