428
FXUS61 KLWX 051924
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
224 PM EST MON JAN 5 2026
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT. MEANWHILE, AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST ON TUESDAY AND
PASSING BY TO OUR NORTH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING A DRY COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. A WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE AREA
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, FOLLOWED BY A STRONG COLD FRONT SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
CLOUDCOVER INCREASED THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE, AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTED OFFSHORE AND PUSHED IN MUCH MORE
MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION ALOFT. ADDITIONALLY, SEEING SOME 15-20
MPH WIND GUSTS STARTING TO SHOW UP AS WELL. EXPECT WINDS TO
TAPER OFF RATHER QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TONIGHT, AND INCREASED
CLOUDCOVER, OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A GOOD BIT WARMER TONIGHT.
EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP DOWN INTO THE 30S TONIGHT,
WHICH IS ACTUALLY QUITE MILD FOR EARLY JANUARY.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
ON TUESDAY WILL PASS NORTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
AS THIS LOW MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST IT WILL DRAG AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THIS IS GOING TO BRING
SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS TO THE ALLEGHENIES AND POSSIBLY
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE,
THE REST OF THE AREA IS GOING TO REMAIN DRY, AS THE SYSTEM LACKS
MOISTURE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS, AND THE UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY ALL
PASSES BY TO OUR NORTH. CLOUDY SKIES CONTINUE TUESDAY, BUT HIGHS
WILL BE MUCH WARMER, REACHING THE 50S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
MILD AS WELL, ONLY DROPPING INTO THE 40S.
MORE SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY. THE BIGGEST STORY WILL
BE THE MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES THAT REACH THE MID 50S TO LOWER
60S FOR WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS COOL BACK DOWN TO THE 30S
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS LIKELY TO BE THE DOMINANT PATTERN THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE EASTERN SEA
BOARD. THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES INCREASING THROUGH THE
EARLY PARTS OF THE WEEKEND WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
LIKELY FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. MOST MODEL
GUIDANCE ALONG WITH THE NBM ARE SUGGESTING DAYTIME TEMPS COULD BE 15
TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE WARMEST DAYS BEING FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.
OUR REGION WILL START TO SEE INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
STARTING FRIDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE FIRST CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON FRIDAY AND WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A
LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO THE NORTH OVER EASTERN CANADA. A FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL DROP SOUTHWARD TOWARD OUR REGION
BEFORE LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS BOUNDARY, BUT WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION IS UNLIKELY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE
DURING THE LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY PERIOD AS AN STRONG UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DRIVES A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION. WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION IS MORE LIKELY DURING THIS PERIOD AS MODELS ARE
SUGGESTING PW'S COULD APPROACH 1.2 INCHES WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME INSTABILITY BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS. PRECIPITATION WILL BE
BENEFICIAL IN NATURE, BUT THE STRONG FRONT COULD BRING SOME ENHANCED
WINDS TO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. THESE WIND MAY REQUIRE
HEADLINES ESPECIALLY OVER OUR MARINE AREAS AND ALONG OUR HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
MVFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
IN SOME LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST. EXPECT
CIGS TO BE IN THE 2500-3000 FT RANGE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
SOUTHERLY WINDS COULD GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS FOR A FEW HOURS THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT HAVE GENERALLY NOT BEEN DOING SO THUS FAR DUE TO
THE CLOUDCOVER. SOME FOG/LOW STRATUS COULD DEVELOP OVERNIGHT,
ESPECIALLY AT IAD, DCA, AND BWI. HAVE INCLUDED THAT INTO THE
LATEST TAFS, BUT ADMITTEDLY, CONFIDENCE REMAINS SOMEWHAT LOW.
HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE SEEMS PRETTY PERSISTENT IN DEVELOPING THIS
FEATURE IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS, SO WENT WITH IT FOR NOW. COULD BE
A FEW HOURS OF SUB-VFR VSBYS.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TOMORROW THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS COULD GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS FOR A
FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THURSDAY BEFORE RAIN PUSHES
IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT. THIS LIKELY COMES WITH A LOWERING CLOUD
DECK. RAIN BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD ON FRIDAY WHICH FAVORS
RESTRICTIONS THROUGH PARTS OF THE DAY. EACH DAY WILL BRING MAINLY
SOUTHERLY WINDS WHICH COMES WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS UP TO AROUND 15 TO
20 KNOTS.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OFFSHORE THROUGH THIS EVENING, RESULTING
IN SOUTHERLY CHANNELING OVER THE LOCAL WATERS. THIS WILL RESULT
IN SEVERAL HOURS OF SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH 6 PM. SUB-SCA WINDS
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING, THEN MOVES
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS IS
POSSIBLE SOMETIME TUESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
EXPECT SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ON THURSDAY WHILE STAYING BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA. HOWEVER, IT LOOKS LIKE SOUTHERLY CHANNELING
EFFECTS PICK UP ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
THAT ARRIVES ON SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED FOR THIS UPTICK IN SOUTHERLY WINDS.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ530>543.
SYNOPSIS...CJL
NEAR TERM...CJL/KRR
SHORT TERM...CJL/KRR
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...CJL/KRR/BRO
MARINE...CJL/KRR/BRO
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