486
FXUS61 KLWX 060832
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
332 AM EST TUE JAN 6 2026
SYNOPSIS
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY,
THEN PASSES BY TO OUR NORTH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING A DRY COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. A WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE AREA THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY, FOLLOWED BY A STRONG COLD FRONT SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TODAY WILL MOVE
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT. TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOW, A
PSEUDO WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH OUR AREA THIS MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON. SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE WARM FRONT WILL HELP
HIGHS REACH THE 50S, WITH AROUND 60F POSSIBLE IN PARTS OF THE
SHENANDOAH VALLEY. THERE IS SOME MODEL GUIDANCE HINTING THAT THIS
COULD ALLOW FOR LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING
ALONG/EAST OF I-95. THIS REMAINS THE MOST UNCERTAIN PART OF THE
FORECAST, BUT THE CLOUDS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL HANG AROUND THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. THIS KEEPS NORTH TO NORTHEAST MD AS THE COOLEST PART
OF THE AREA, WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
ALLEGHENY RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN THIS AFTERNOON, THOUGH
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY ARRIVES TONIGHT. THE REST OF THE AREA IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN DRY, THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS IN THE
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS AND ALONG THE MD/PA BORDER TONIGHT. MUCH MILDER
TONIGHT AS LOWS SETTLE IN THE 40S.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL DRAG AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING. MOUNTAIN RAIN SHOWERS COME
TO AN END BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT
USHER IN GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. WIND GUSTS AROUND 20-30 MPH ARE
LIKELY ACROSS MOST OF THE FAVORED WIND-CLIMO AREAS (MOUNTAINS AND
ALONG/NORTH OF US-48/I-66). DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
WILL ONLY REALLY BE FELT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS LOWS BRIEFLY DROP BACK
TO THE 30S. A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE WEST
THURSDAY NIGHT, AND THAT COULD BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE
ALLEGHENIES LATE IN THE NIGHT.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A CLOSED UPPER RIDGE CENTERED AROUND CUBA INTO SOUTH FLORIDA WILL
MAINTAIN ITS INFLUENCE ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD ON FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. 500-MB HEIGHTS SHOULD REMAIN ON THE ORDER OF 1 TO 2
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE AVERAGE FOR EARLY/MID JANUARY. THE
COMBINATION OF THIS STRONG RIDGE AND LOW-LEVEL SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WARM ADVECTION WILL PROMOTE ABUNDANT WARMTH ACROSS THE
REGION. THE FORECAST HAS ACTUALLY TRENDED UPWARD OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS WITH WIDESPREAD HIGHS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WELL INTO THE
60S. FOR MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS, TEMPERATURES REMAIN MILD WITH HIGHS IN
THE 50S. HOWEVER, THIS DOES COME WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER, PERIODS
OF RAIN SHOWERS, AND SOME BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.
NEITHER DAY SHOULD BE A COMPLETE WASHOUT, BUT BE PREPARED FOR SOME
WET CONDITIONS AT TIMES AS SHOWERS PUSH ACROSS THE REGION. FOR
OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS, FRIDAY NIGHT WILL MILD BEHIND AN EARLIER WARM
FRONT PASSAGE. LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID/UPPER 40S ALONG
THE ALLEGHENIES, WITH WIDESPREAD 50S OFF TO THE EAST. WHILE THIS
COULD BREAK SOME DAILY RECORDS OF WARM OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS, COLDER
AIR ARRIVING LATE SATURDAY MAY THWART THOSE EFFORTS.
AS MENTIONED, TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY BEGIN TO COOL OFF ON
SATURDAY NIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT TRACKS THROUGH EARLIER IN
THE DAY. LOWERING HEIGHTS WITH THE TROUGH COUPLED WITH A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT TRACKING THROUGH ON SUNDAY SHOULD LOWER HIGH AND LOW
TEMPERATURES TO NEAR AVERAGE FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AS THE TROUGH
TRACKS OVERHEAD, A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY.
GIVEN THE CHILLIER TEMPERATURES ALONG THE ALLEGHENY FRONT, SOME OF
THIS MAY COME IN THE FORM OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX. CONDITIONS DRY OUT BY
MONDAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES OFF INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THE AVIATION FORECAST REMAINS UNCERTAIN FOR THIS MORNING IN REGARDS
TO THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO DEVELOP ALONG I-95
CORRIDOR. THIS WOULD MAINLY IMPACT DCA/BWI/MTN, WITH THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITIES FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AT MTN. THE TAFS WERE UPDATED
BASED ON NEW GUIDANCE THAT PREDOMINANTLY KEPT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THIS MORNING, BUT THEN THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG AT MTN/BWI THIS AFTERNOON, WITH THOSE CONDITIONS
PERSISTING INTO THIS EVENING. MUCH LOWER CONFIDENCE AT IAD/DCA, BUT
CHANCES FOR IMPACTS ARE NONZERO. ADDITIONAL LOW CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE
THIS EVENING INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE OVERNIGHT AT IAD/DCA AND
BWI/MTN, BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AFTER A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING. NORTHWEST WINDS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON GUSTING AROUND 20-25 KNOTS.
A BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WIND IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS TO AROUND 20 TO 25 KNOTS. AMIDST
MAINLY OVERCAST SKIES, PASSING SHOWERS WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
TERMINALS AT TIMES. GIVEN THE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER AND
PASSING SHOWERS, SOME RESTRICTIONS ARE LOOKING LIKELY AT TIMES.
BY FRIDAY NIGHT, THE MILD CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH LOW-LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION WOULD ENCOURAGE SOME CEILING RESTRICTIONS.
MARINE
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST WINDS
INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TONIGHT, WHICH COULD
RESULT IN NEAR-SCA CONDITIONS IN THE MIDDLE CHESAPEAKE BAY. THE COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE LOCAL WATERS WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH INCREASING
NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN
ISSUED FOR WEDNESDAY LATE MORNING TO EVENING FOR WINDS GUSTING
AROUND 20-25 KNOTS ACROSS ALL THE WATERS. WINDS DECREASE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. EXPECT SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ON THURSDAY WHILE
STAYING BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.
A MAINLY SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WIND IS EXPECTED FOR BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. THIS WILL SUPPORT THE NEED
FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES DURING MUCH OF THIS TIME, PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE WIDE WATERS OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. GUSTS UP TO 20 TO
PERHAPS 25 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES. BY SATURDAY NIGHT, THE COLD
FRONT WILL SHIFT WINDS OVER TO WESTERLY WITH SOME NEED FOR SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES AS THIS OCCURS.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...KRR
NEAR TERM...KRR
SHORT TERM...KRR
LONG TERM...BRO
AVIATION...BRO/KRR
MARINE...BRO/KRR
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