701
FXUS61 KLWX 061342
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
842 AM EST TUE JAN 6 2026
SYNOPSIS
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY,
THEN PASSES BY TO OUR NORTH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING A DRY COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. A WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE AREA THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY, FOLLOWED BY A STRONG COLD FRONT SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
MORNING UPDATE: CURRENT OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE REGION DEPICT
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE, WITH AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE MIDWEST MOVING EAST. TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE REGION ARE GENERALLY IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S, WHICH IS
SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY DUE TO THE
ONGOING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND ABUNDANT CLOUDCOVER. NOTHING HAS
REALLY CHANGED WITH THE FORECAST IN THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS SINCE
THE LAST UPDATE, SO THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW CAN BE
REFERENCED FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE UPCOMING FORECAST.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES TODAY WILL MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
TONIGHT. TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOW, A PSEUDO WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTH THROUGH OUR AREA THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE WARM FRONT WILL HELP HIGHS REACH
THE 50S, WITH AROUND 60F POSSIBLE IN PARTS OF THE SHENANDOAH
VALLEY. THERE IS SOME MODEL GUIDANCE HINTING THAT THIS COULD
ALLOW FOR LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING
ALONG/EAST OF I-95. THIS REMAINS THE MOST UNCERTAIN PART OF THE
FORECAST, BUT THE CLOUDS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL HANG AROUND
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS KEEPS NORTH TO NORTHEAST MD AS THE
COOLEST PART OF THE AREA, WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
40S.
ALLEGHENY RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN THIS AFTERNOON, THOUGH
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY ARRIVES TONIGHT. THE REST OF THE AREA IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN DRY, THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS IN THE
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS AND ALONG THE MD/PA BORDER TONIGHT. MUCH MILDER
TONIGHT AS LOWS SETTLE IN THE 40S.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL DRAG AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING. MOUNTAIN RAIN SHOWERS COME
TO AN END BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT
USHER IN GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. WIND GUSTS AROUND 20-30 MPH ARE
LIKELY ACROSS MOST OF THE FAVORED WIND-CLIMO AREAS (MOUNTAINS AND
ALONG/NORTH OF US-48/I-66). DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
WILL ONLY REALLY BE FELT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS LOWS BRIEFLY DROP BACK
TO THE 30S. A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE WEST
THURSDAY NIGHT, AND THAT COULD BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE
ALLEGHENIES LATE IN THE NIGHT.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A CLOSED UPPER RIDGE CENTERED AROUND CUBA INTO SOUTH FLORIDA WILL
MAINTAIN ITS INFLUENCE ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD ON FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. 500-MB HEIGHTS SHOULD REMAIN ON THE ORDER OF 1 TO 2
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE AVERAGE FOR EARLY/MID JANUARY. THE
COMBINATION OF THIS STRONG RIDGE AND LOW-LEVEL SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WARM ADVECTION WILL PROMOTE ABUNDANT WARMTH ACROSS THE
REGION. THE FORECAST HAS ACTUALLY TRENDED UPWARD OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS WITH WIDESPREAD HIGHS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WELL INTO THE
60S. FOR MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS, TEMPERATURES REMAIN MILD WITH HIGHS IN
THE 50S. HOWEVER, THIS DOES COME WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER, PERIODS
OF RAIN SHOWERS, AND SOME BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.
NEITHER DAY SHOULD BE A COMPLETE WASHOUT, BUT BE PREPARED FOR SOME
WET CONDITIONS AT TIMES AS SHOWERS PUSH ACROSS THE REGION. FOR
OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS, FRIDAY NIGHT WILL MILD BEHIND AN EARLIER WARM
FRONT PASSAGE. LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID/UPPER 40S ALONG
THE ALLEGHENIES, WITH WIDESPREAD 50S OFF TO THE EAST. WHILE THIS
COULD BREAK SOME DAILY RECORDS OF WARM OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS, COLDER
AIR ARRIVING LATE SATURDAY MAY THWART THOSE EFFORTS.
AS MENTIONED, TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY BEGIN TO COOL OFF ON
SATURDAY NIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT TRACKS THROUGH EARLIER IN
THE DAY. LOWERING HEIGHTS WITH THE TROUGH COUPLED WITH A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT TRACKING THROUGH ON SUNDAY SHOULD LOWER HIGH AND LOW
TEMPERATURES TO NEAR AVERAGE FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AS THE TROUGH
TRACKS OVERHEAD, A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY.
GIVEN THE CHILLIER TEMPERATURES ALONG THE ALLEGHENY FRONT, SOME OF
THIS MAY COME IN THE FORM OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX. CONDITIONS DRY OUT BY
MONDAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES OFF INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS BEING OBSERVED ACROSS ALL TERMINALS AT THIS TIME.
SUB-VFR CIGS ARE LARGELY RELEGATED TO AREAS TO OUR SOUTH AND
EAST THIS MORNING, AND THAT SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
THIS AREA OF LOW CLOUDS MAY MAKE A RUN AT OUR METRO TERMINALS
LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE OVERNIGHT.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AFTER A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING. NORTHWEST WINDS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON GUSTING AROUND 20-25 KNOTS.
A BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WIND IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS TO AROUND 20 TO 25 KNOTS. AMIDST
MAINLY OVERCAST SKIES, PASSING SHOWERS WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
TERMINALS AT TIMES. GIVEN THE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER AND
PASSING SHOWERS, SOME RESTRICTIONS ARE LOOKING LIKELY AT TIMES.
BY FRIDAY NIGHT, THE MILD CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH LOW-LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION WOULD ENCOURAGE SOME CEILING RESTRICTIONS.
MARINE
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST WINDS
INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TONIGHT, WHICH COULD
RESULT IN NEAR-SCA CONDITIONS IN THE MIDDLE CHESAPEAKE BAY, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME FOR AN SCA TO BE ISSUED. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THAT THREAT THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE LOCAL WATERS WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR WEDNESDAY LATE MORNING TO
EVENING FOR WINDS GUSTING AROUND 20-25 KNOTS ACROSS ALL THE
WATERS. WINDS DECREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT SOUTH TO
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ON THURSDAY WHILE STAYING BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA.
A MAINLY SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WIND IS EXPECTED FOR BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. THIS WILL SUPPORT THE NEED
FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES DURING MUCH OF THIS TIME, PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE WIDE WATERS OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. GUSTS UP TO 20 TO
PERHAPS 25 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES. BY SATURDAY NIGHT, THE COLD
FRONT WILL SHIFT WINDS OVER TO WESTERLY WITH SOME NEED FOR SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES AS THIS OCCURS.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 5 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
ANZ530>543.
SYNOPSIS...KRR
NEAR TERM...CJL/KRR
SHORT TERM...KRR
LONG TERM...BRO
AVIATION...BRO/CJL/KRR
MARINE...BRO/CJL/KRR
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