891
FXUS61 KLWX 061925
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
225 PM EST TUE JAN 6 2026
SYNOPSIS
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES BY TO OUR NORTH TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING A DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE AREA
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, FOLLOWED BY A STRONG COLD FRONT SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ALLEGHENY RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN A LITTLE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON, THOUGH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY ARRIVES INTO TONIGHT.
THE REST OF THE AREA IS FORECAST TO REMAIN DRY, THOUGH CANNOT
RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS IN THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS AND ALONG THE
MD/PA BORDER TONIGHT. MUCH MILDER TONIGHT AS LOWS SETTLE IN THE
40S.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL DRAG AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING. MOUNTAIN RAIN SHOWERS COME
TO AN END BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT
USHER IN GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. WIND GUSTS AROUND 20-30 MPH ARE
LIKELY ACROSS MOST OF THE FAVORED WIND-CLIMO AREAS (MOUNTAINS AND
ALONG/NORTH OF US-48/I-66).
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS
DROP BACK DOWN INTO THE 30S WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH THE COLDEST
SPOTS IN THE TYPICAL AREAS THAT FAVOR RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER
HIGH PRESSURE.
A PERIOD OF UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION
STATING ON THURSDAY, WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WINDS TAPER
OFF SIGNIFICANTLY, AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN
AROUND THE MID 50S FOR MOST. A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
AREA FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT, AND THAT COULD BRING A FEW
SHOWERS TO THE ALLEGHENIES LATE IN THE NIGHT.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
SW'LY WARM ADVECTION RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AHEAD OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT. PW VALUES WILL BE AROUND 1.25" WHICH IS NEARLY 2-
3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. CONTINUED CLDCVR IS EXPECTED
SATURDAY. WHILE A WASHOUT IS NOT EXPECTED, RAIN SHOWERS ARE
DEFINITELY LIKELY. HIGHS SAT IN THE 50S TO MID 60S BEFORE THEY COME
CRASHING DOWN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT. DECENT TROUGH MOVES
OVERHEAD WITH SECONDARY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE MOVING THROUGH DURING
THE DAY SUNDAY. THIS WILL KNOCK TEMPERATURES BACK CLOSER TO AVERAGE.
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW RAIN SHOWERS WITH THIS FEATURE, OR SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE ALLEGHENIES. CONDITIONS DRY OUT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS, WHERE A FEW UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS REMAIN
POSSIBLE.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS BEING OBSERVED ACROSS ALL TERMINALS AT THIS TIME.
SUB-VFR CIGS ARE LARGELY RELEGATED TO AREAS TO OUR SOUTH AND
EAST THIS MORNING, AND THAT SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
THIS AREA OF LOW CLOUDS MAY MAKE A RUN AT OUR METRO TERMINALS
LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE OVERNIGHT. THE
GREATEST THREAT FOR THIS WILL BE SPECIFICALLY AT BWI AND MTN,
WHERE IFR CONDITIONS ARE ACTUALLY ALREADY BEING OBSERVED AT
TIMES. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE A LITTLE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AFTER A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING. NORTHWEST WINDS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON GUSTING AROUND 20-25 KNOTS.
SW WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE TERMINALS SAT WITH OVERCAST SKIES AND RAIN
SHOWERS. THIS WILL RESULT IN RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES. COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT CLEARING THINGS OUT, BUT GUSTS OUT OF THE
W/NW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY SUN.
MARINE
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST WINDS
INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TONIGHT, AND
INCREASED CONFIDENCE RESULTED IN THE ISSUANCE OF AN SCA ON THIS
SHIFT AS A RESULT.
THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE LOCAL WATERS WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR WEDNESDAY LATE MORNING TO
EVENING FOR WINDS GUSTING AROUND 20-25 KNOTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE WATERS. FURTHER SOUTH, CONFIDENCE INCREASED THAT
WINDS SHOULDN'T BE AS STRONG, SO LET THAT SCA GO DURING THIS
FORECAST CYCLE.
WINDS DECREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS ON THURSDAY WHILE STAYING BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.
SW'LY WINDS SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. STRONGER WINDS FAVORED
ESPECIALLY IN ANY STRONGER SHOWERS. THEREFORE, SCA CONDITIONS
FAVORED SAT. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SAT NIGHT BRINGING A
SHIFT TO WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS WITH CONTINUED SCA CONDITIONS.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 5 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
MDZ008.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 5 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
ANZ530>532-535-538>540.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ533-534-537-543.
SYNOPSIS...KRR
NEAR TERM...CJL/KRR
SHORT TERM...CJL/KRR
LONG TERM...CPB
AVIATION...CJL/CPB/KRR
MARINE...CJL/CPB/KRR
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