183
FXUS61 KLWX 080211
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
911 PM EST WED JAN 7 2026
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING OVERHEAD ON THURSDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
INTO THE AREA FRIDAY. A PAIR OF COLD FRONTS WILL CROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE SOUTH OF
THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE OVERHEAD TONIGHT IN A
RELATIVELY FAST ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES FALLING CLOSE TO THE
DEW POINTS. MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE IN THE 30S, WITH THE HIGHEST
CHANCE FOR SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES IN THE TYPICAL PIEDMONT AND
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL, ALTHOUGH THERE WILL
BE AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. WARM ADVECTION WILL
COMMENCE ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH, ALLOWING HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO RISE TO THE MID TO UPPER 50S IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
HALF OF THE CWA. UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S WILL BE FOUND TO THE
NORTHEAST. MILD CONDITIONS CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. IF ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS OCCUR,
SOME PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP AGAIN.
A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH OR POSSIBLY ALREADY BE OVER THE AREA
FRIDAY. WHILE THIS SHOULD USHER IN EVEN MILDER AIR, THERE IS
SOME QUESTION WITH HOW QUICKLY IT IS ABLE TO PUSH THROUGH.
OVERRUNNING MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW
CLOUDS, AND THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE AT
TIMES. THUS THERE COULD BE A RANGE IN TEMPERATURES FROM NEAR 50
TO THE MID 60S. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE, ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE RIDGES ABOVE A LOW LEVEL INVERSION. GUSTS ON THE
HIGHER PEAKS COULD REACH 35-45 MPH, ESPECIALLY DURING THE
MORNING.
THE FRONT COULD ATTEMPT TO SAG BACK SOUTH INTO THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT. OTHER THAN THE POTENTIAL FOR SLIGHTLY LOWER TEMPERATURES
(UPPER 40S VS 50S), THE EXACT POSITION SHOULDN'T MATTER TOO
MUCH. FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS
THE NEXT LOW CENTER LIFTS INTO THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEY.
RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE, ESPECIALLY THE SECOND
HALF OF THE NIGHT.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
RAIN AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AS A
WARM FRONT LIFTS TO THE NORTH AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. PRECIPITATION CHANCES PEAK SATURDAY MORNING WITH BENEFICIAL
RAINFALL LINGERING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGHER ELEVATIONS
STAYING IN THE MID 50S. THERE WILL BE A LARGE SPREAD IN OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S FOR THOSE ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
WITH THOSE WEST RANGING FROM LOW 20S TO 30S. CONDITIONS DRY OUT
OVERNIGHT AS WINDS INCREASE.
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT, GUSTY WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. WEST WINDS GUST 20 TO 30 KNOTS DURING THE
DAY WITH LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS EXPECTED AT HIGHER ELEVATION. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S FOR MOST WITH THE
ALLEGHENIES STAYING IN THE 30S. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE
IN THE 20S FOR MOST WITH LINGERING UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
CONDITIONS DRY OUT MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARM EACH DAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S FOR MOST BY TUESDAY.
AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD BY LATE TONIGHT. SOME PATCHY
FOG IS POSSIBLE, AND THAT WAS INTRODUCED WITH THE 00Z TAF
UPDATES EVERYWHERE BUT DCA. STILL A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY IF
ANY ONE GIVEN SPOT SEES FOG, BUT MODEL GUIDANCE CAME INTO A BIT
BETTER AGREEMENT THAT FOG COULD BE A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD THAN
WAS THOUGHT EARLIER TODAY. SO, THINK A FEW HOURS IS POSSIBLE
JUST BEFORE AND THROUGH SUNRISE THURSDAY.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THURSDAY AS THE HIGH SLIDES TO THE
EAST. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY BY MIDDAY.
A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, BUT MAY
TAKE TIME TO PUSH THROUGH. SOME SUB-VFR CEILINGS AND/OR FOG
COULD DEVELOP NEAR AND NORTHEAST OF THE BOUNDARY. THERE MAY BE
SOME LLWS AS WELL WITH WINDS AROUND 40 KT ABOVE A LOW LEVEL
INVERSION. TO THE SOUTH, GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS TO AROUND 20 KT
ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY. THE CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL INCREASE,
ESPECIALLY THE SECOND HALF OF FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS IS WHEN IFR
CEILINGS WILL ALSO BE MOST LIKELY.
RAINFALL ACROSS THE TERMINALS ON SATURDAY WILL YIELD REDUCED
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. SOUTHERLY WINDS GUST 15 TO 20 KNOTS IN
THE AFTERNOON. WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION. VFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY, AS WINDS GUST 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MARINE
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. AS THE HIGH MOVES
OFFSHORE FRIDAY, SOUTH WINDS RETURN. SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT TIMES FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, ESPECIALLY WHERE
THE WARM FRONT IS ABLE TO LIFT TO THE NORTH.
SOUTHERLY WINDS ON SATURDAY SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA
WINDS ARE LIKELY BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ADS
NEAR TERM...ADS/CJL
SHORT TERM...ADS
LONG TERM...AVS
AVIATION...ADS/AVS/CJL
MARINE...ADS/AVS/CJL
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