275
FXUS61 KLWX 091517
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1017 AM EST FRI JAN 9 2026
SYNOPSIS
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT TOWARDS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
BEING OVERTAKEN BY A FAST-MOVING COLD FRONT TONIGHT. THE COLD
FRONT STALLS OVER THE REGION SATURDAY, WITH A DEVELOPING LOW
MOVING ALONG IT THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE SAME TIME. A PAIR OF
COLD FRONTS WILL PUSH THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TOWARDS THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
A POTENT SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
LIFT NORTHEASTWARD FROM NEAR LAKE HURON TOWARD ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. A SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS
SHORTWAVE AND LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING IN SOME SLIGHTLY WARMER
AIR AND ADDITIONAL MOISTURE. SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY PEPPERING THE
RADAR IN FAR WESTERN VIRGINIA AND NEAR FAR WESTERN MARYLAND.
ADDITIONAL ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES MAY STRUGGLE A BIT OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS TO RISE AS CLOUD COVER AND A WEAK
SOUTHERLY FLOW EXITS. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT MOST AREAS WILL
MAKE IT INTO THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60. HOWEVER, SOME LOCATIONS
TO THE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MAY NOT MAKE IT TO 50 DEGREES.
A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATER THIS
EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTH BEHIND THIS FRONT, WHICH WILL ALLOW SLIGHTLY COOLER AND
DRIER AIR TO BRIEFLY FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS BOUNDARY
WILL ULTIMATELY STALL OUT JUST TO OUR SOUTH AS IT LOSES UPPER
AIR SUPPORT. AFTER A BRIEF LULL, OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION WILL
LIKELY ENSUE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AS WARM ADVECTION STARTS TO
OCCUR ATOP THE BOUNDARY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH WILL REMAIN ORIENTED FROM THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY, PLACING US WITHIN
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. MEANWHILE, A MID-LEVEL LOW WILL
DEEPEN AS IT DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
AN ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW WILL FORM IN RESPONSE OVER LOWER
MICHIGAN. A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP DOWNSTREAM OF
THIS SYSTEM TO THE EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS. THIS STRONG LOW-
LEVEL JET WILL OVERRUN THE STALLED OUT BOUNDARY LOCATED JUST TO
OUR SOUTH, LEADING TO A PROLONGED SOAKING RAINFALL THROUGH MUCH
OF THE DAY SATURDAY. THIS RAINFALL WILL BE LARGELY BENEFICIAL
GIVEN ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS, WITH MOST LOCATIONS RECEIVING
AROUND TO JUST UNDER AN INCH. THE STEADY RAINFALL WILL ALSO HELP
TO REINFORCE THE COLD AIR WEDGE IN PLACE. MOST LOCATIONS WILL
STRUGGLE TO CLIMB THROUGH THE 40S, AND SOME FREEZING RAIN MAY
EVEN BE POSSIBLE AROUND ONSET IN EXTREME WESTERN ALLEGANY AND
EXTREME EASTERN GARRETT COUNTIES.
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH AND TRACK NORTHEASTWARD
ALONG THE BOUNDARY. LOCATIONS TO THE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WILL
BE MUCH WARMER, WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY MAKING IT WELL INTO THE
60S. THIS WARMER AIR WILL LIKELY REMAIN CONFINED JUST OFF TO
OUR SOUTH, BUT DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SYSTEM IT
COULD MAKE IT INTO NELSON OR ST. MARY'S COUNTIES. IF THIS
SCENARIO WERE TO PLAY OUT, A STRONGER STORM COULD EVEN BE
POSSIBLE THERE SATURDAY EVENING.
THE SYSTEM'S COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT, WITH CONDITIONS TURNING WINDY AND MUCH COOLER BEHIND THE
FRONT FOR SUNDAY. HIGHS ON SUNDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 40S,
WITH 20S AND 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS. IT WILL FEEL MUCH COOLER THAN
THAT, WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 30-40 MPH.
PREDOMINANTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS THE SYSTEM'S UPPER
TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS. WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS COULD ALSO
APPROACH WIND ADVISORY LEVELS.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS BEHIND A COLD FRONT ON MONDAY WILL LEAD TO
COOLER TEMPERATURES. BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE, BUT SHOULD BE
TAPERING OFF AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS OVER THE REGION. THIS
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF HEIGHT RISES TUE/WED AS QUASI-ZONAL
FLOW BRIEFLY RETURNS TO THE REGION. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AT LEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A BIT EACH DAY TUE/WED INTO THE 40S AND THEN
THE LOW 50S.
BY THURSDAY, A SHIFT IN THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN IS ON THE HORIZON.
THERE ARE MANY FEATURE AT PLAY THOUGH, SO DETAILS ARE STILL VERY
MURKY. BROADLY SPEAKING THOUGH, THE POLAR JET BECOMES VERY ACTIVE IN
OUR REGION, WITH A POTENT UPPER TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE REGION.
MEANWHILE, THERE MAY ALSO BE A PIECE OF UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY MOVING
TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS OUT OF NORTHERN MEXICO. THE INTERACTION
OF THESE TWO PIECES OF ENERGY COULD HAVE A WIDE RANGE OF IMPACTS
OVER A VERY BROAD AREA. BUT IN GENERAL, IT IS SOMETHING TO WATCH
TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS THE NEXT CHANCE FOR ANY SUBSTANTIAL
PRECIPITATION.
AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
MVFR CEILINGS, PERHAPS IFR, WILL EXIST FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF
HOURS INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS SURFACE WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY
BUT WEAK AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE REGION. SHOWERS AND
LLWS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION. THIS FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, CAUSING CEILINGS
TO RETURN BACK TO VFR AND WINDS TO SHIFT TO OUT OF THE NORTH.
IFR TO SUB-IFR CEILINGS APPEAR LIKELY AGAIN ON SATURDAY ALONG
WITH A SOAKING RAIN AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD TOWARD THE
AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING, LEADING
TO A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS AND A SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS. VFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
ON SUNDAY. GUSTS MAY REACH IN EXCESS OF 30 KNOTS AT TIMES.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WINDS REMAIN
SOMEWHAT ELEVATED OUT OF THE NW ON MONDAY, WITH GUSTS UP TO 20
KNOTS. WINDS TAPER OFF QUICKLY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS.
MARINE
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AND
CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. WARMER AIR MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS
COULD LIMIT THE POSSIBILITY OF SCA BUT WE WILL MONITOR THIS
POSSIBILITY OVER THE NEXT HOUR AS SIGNS COULD CHANGE TOWARD A
SCA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT, CAUSING
WINDS TO SHIFT TO OUT OF THE NORTH. WINDS WILL THEN TURN TO OUT
OF THE NORTHEAST AND EVENTUALLY EAST ON SATURDAY WHILE REMAINING
SUB- SCA LEVEL IN MAGNITUDE. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
ALONG A STALLED FRONT JUST TO OUR SOUTH. IF THIS SYSTEM WERE TO
TREND A BIT FURTHER NORTH, SCA GUSTS COULD BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
SOUTHERNMOST WATERS (SMITH POINT TO TANGIER SOUND) LATER
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING. FOR NOW, WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUB-SCA LEVEL OVER ALL WATERS.
WINDS WILL TURN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES
OVER THE WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT, AND CONTINUE OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. AT LEAST HIGH-END SCA GUSTS
APPEAR LIKELY DURING THAT TIME, WITH GALE GUSTS POSSIBLE AT
TIMES.
SCA CONDITIONS REMAIN POSSIBLE AGAIN ON MONDAY, WITH GUSTY NW WINDS
AROUND 20 KNOTS. WINDS TAPER OFF QUICKLY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY,
WITH NO MARINE HAZARDS EXPECTED DURING THAT TIME.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...KJP
NEAR TERM...KLW/KJP
SHORT TERM...KJP
LONG TERM...CJL
AVIATION...KLW/CJL/KJP
MARINE...KLW/CJL/KJP
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