952
FXUS61 KLWX 100144 AAA
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
844 PM EST FRI JAN 9 2026
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND STALL JUST
TO OUR SOUTH EARLY SATURDAY. THE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD
MIDDAY SATURDAY AND CONNECT TO AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LATE
SATURDAY. THE LOW WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION WITH A TRAILING
COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT. A SECONDARY AND STRONGER COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO
THE SOUTH OF THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
RAIN/SHOWERS WILL EXIT THE AREA TO THE SOUTHEAST LATER TONIGHT
AS CDFNT NOW ACROSS SOUTHWEST PA ADVANCES SOUTHEAST. THERE WILL
BE A 3-6 HR BREAK IN THE PRECIP LATE THIS EVENING AND EARLY
SATURDAY BEFORE RAIN STARTS LIFTING AGAIN NORTHWARD ASSOCIATED
WITH DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE TN RIVER VALLEY.
RAIN IS EXPECTED MOST OF THE DAY SATURDAY, ENDING EARLY
SATURDAY EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST AS PRIMARY CDFNT PUSHES EAST.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED EAST OF US-29
ALONG THE TRACK OF THE DEVELOPING SFC LOW WITH LESSER AMOUNTS
TO THE NW. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN STEADY IN THE MID TO UPPER
40S DUE TO THICK CLOUD COVER AND RAIN.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WILL GRADUALLY RETREAT NORTHWARD THROUGH
THE DAY SATURDAY BEFORE CONNECTING TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY. DURING THIS PROCESS, A MORE STEADIER
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST. RAIN AMOUNTS WILL AVERAGE ONE-HALF TO ONE INCH
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES MAY BE A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER, COLD-AIR ADVECTION
FOLLOWED BY THE OVERRUNNING PERIODS OF RAIN, AND UPPER AIR COLD
AIR SUPPORT. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S IN THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION WITH UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IN THE
SOUTHERN HALF.
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE TO THE EAST U.S. COAST AND
DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. RAIN WILL
TAPER AND END FROM WEST TO EAST BEHIND THE FRONT, WHILE AT THE
SAME TIME, ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES FULFILL THE
REGION IN THE APPALACHIANS. THESE SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY AS NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE RAPIDLY AND
PERHAPS GUST 40 TO 45 MPH MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-66 AND
WEST OF THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY. WIND ADVISORIES AND GALE WARNINGS
MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH SUCH STRONG WINDS THAT WE WILL HAVE TO
VISIT OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THERE COULD BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY WITH THESE WIND GUSTS AND COLDER TEMPERATURES THAT
SNOW SQUALLS COULD DEVELOP LATE SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS IS SOMETHING WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR ANY CHANGES
IN THE WINTER VARIABLES AND SEE HOW THINGS DEVELOP ON RADAR AS
WE GET INTO THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND.
HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN THE 40S. LOWS WILL BE MUCH COLDER WITH LOWS
DROPPING INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE GULF COAST STATES MONDAY. ANY
LINGERING GUSTY WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING TO THE NORTH MAY ADD
SOME CLOUDS, BUT DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ALONG WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY. SOUTHERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING SLIGHTLY MILDER AIR INTO THE
REGION. SOME LIGHT WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION MAY REACH THE
ALLEGHENY MOUNTAINS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES MAY BE MARGINAL
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A WINTRY MIX, BUT MANY AREAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
ABOVE FREEZING. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE DAY. THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION (RAIN POSSIBLY
CHANGING TO SNOW) WILL BE ALONG AND WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT, BUT
SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MAY SPILL TO THE EAST. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES
THEREAFTER AS A DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN US, POSSIBLY
ALLOWING A SECOND LOW TO DEVELOP ALONG THE EAST COAST THURSDAY. AS
TEMPERATURES DROP BEHIND THE FRONT, ANY PRECIPITATION THAT DOES
OCCUR COULD BE WINTRY IN PARTS OF THE AREA. HOWEVER, AT THIS TIME,
IT LOOKS LIKE A GLANCING SHOT WITH SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
UNLIKELY. HIGH PRESSURE MAY BUILD INTO THE AREA FRIDAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS BUT CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, CAUSING
CEILINGS TO RETURN BACK TO VFR AND WINDS TO SHIFT TO OUT OF THE
NORTH.
IFR TO SUB-IFR CEILINGS APPEAR LIKELY AGAIN ON SATURDAY ALONG
WITH A SOAKING RAIN AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD TOWARD THE
AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING, LEADING
TO A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS AND A SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS. VFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
ON SUNDAY. GUSTS MAY REACH IN EXCESS OF 30 KNOTS AT TIMES.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS TO THE SOUTH. WESTERLY WINDS ON MONDAY AND SOUTHERLY WINDS ON
TUESDAY COULD BOTH GUST TO AROUND 20 KT AT TIMES. A COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY BUT PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE LOW.
MARINE
SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT,
MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THROUGH
TONIGHT. ONCE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH, WINDS WILL BECOME
NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY INTO SATURDAY. AS A FRONT RETREATS
NORTHWARD, WINDS WILL BECOME ERRATIC BEFORE BECOMING
NORTHWESTERLY AND VERY GUSTY BEHIND A COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT.
AT LEAST HIGH- END SCA GUSTS APPEAR LIKELY DURING THAT TIME
WITH GALE GUSTS POSSIBLE AT TIMES.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN W/NW FLOW MAY LINGER INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER,
WINDS SHOULD TAPER DURING THE AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
TOWARD THE AREA. WINDS SWITCH TO SOUTHERLY TUESDAY, WITH SCAS
POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY EVENING. WINDS MAY DECREASE FOR A TIME WEDNESDAY
DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...LFR
NEAR TERM...LFR
SHORT TERM...KLW/KJP
LONG TERM...ADS
AVIATION...ADS/LFR
MARINE...ADS/LFR
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