409
FXUS61 KLWX 100902
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
402 AM EST SAT JAN 10 2026
SYNOPSIS
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL NEARBY TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS ALONG THE FRONT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS
EVENING, WITH ANOTHER REINFORCING COLD FRONT FOLLOWING TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR SOUTH BY MONDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A POTENT SHORTWAVE/CLOSED LOW
DRIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS ND/MN EARLY THIS MORNING.
MEANWHILE, A PLUME OF MOISTURE IS BEING DRAWN NORTHEASTWARD
DOWNSTREAM OF A MUCH LARGER POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH WHICH
EXTENDS NORTHEASTWARD FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA TOWARD THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY, THE UPPER LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT DROPS INTO WI, WHILE AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE FORMS DOWNSTREAM OVER MI. A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET WILL
SURGE NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE AREA AND OVERRUN A STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN PLACE JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. A STEADY, SOAKING RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY AS
A RESULT, WITH MOST LOCATIONS RECEIVING BETWEEN A HALF OF AN
INCH AND AN INCH OF RAINFALL. THIS WILL ALL BE BENEFICIAL
RAINFALL, GIVEN ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MAJORITY
OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE STEADY RAINFALL WILL HELP TO
REINFORCE THE COLD WEDGE THAT WILL BE IN PLACE, HOLDING
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S.
RAIN WILL START TO BECOME MORE SHOWERY IN NATURE THIS EVENING,
BEFORE EVENTUALLY COMING TO AN END. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH LATER THIS EVENING, CAUSING WINDS TO TURN OUT OF THE
WEST. COOLER AIR WILL START TO FILTER INTO THE AREA LATER
TONIGHT, WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING BACK INTO THE 30S AND LOWER
40S BY DAYBREAK TOMORROW.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
A POTENT UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE OVERHEAD DURING THE DAY
TOMORROW, DRIVING A REINFORCING SECONDARY COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA. HI-RES GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A CONVECTIVE LINE WILL
LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS WILL COME IN THE FORM
OF A BURST OF HEAVY SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS LATE TOMORROW MORNING.
THE LINE WILL SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON,
LIKELY IN THE FORM OF A BRIEF HEAVY RAIN/SNOW/GRAUPEL MIX
(MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW/GRAUPEL). MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE FREEZING TO THE EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS, WITH WET-BULB PROFILES ALSO ABOVE FREEZING TO THE
EAST OF I-81. AS A RESULT, THERE ISN'T MUCH CONCERN FOR SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS TO THE EAST OF I-81, DESPITE THE POTENTIAL FOR A
BRIEF BURST OF HEAVY PRECIP. ALONG AND WEST OF I-81 THIS LINE
COULD PRODUCE A QUICK COATING OF SNOW, POTENTIALLY MAKING
CONDITIONS SLIPPERY IN SPOTS. AT LEAST A FEW INCHES OF SNOW
APPEAR LIKELY IN THE ALLEGHENIES TOMORROW MORNING THROUGH
TOMORROW EVENING, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL INCHES IN
SPOTS. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES MAY POTENTIALLY NEED TO BE
CONSIDERED FOR THE ALLEGHENIES LATER TODAY. MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS
VERY HIGH VALUES OF THE SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER, WITH NOTABLE CAPE
IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER (EVEN TO THE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS). LIFT
ALSO INTERSECTS THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE, SO SLRS COULD
POTENTIALLY BE ON THE HIGHER SIDE WITH ANY SNOW THAT FALLS IN
HEAVIER SQUALLS.
OUTSIDE OF ANY SNOW, IT WILL TURN MUCH WINDIER BEHIND THE
REINFORCING FRONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MOST LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY
EXPERIENCE GUSTS TO AROUND 35-45 MPH, WITH GUSTS TO WIND
ADVISORY LEVELS POSSIBLE IN AND IMMEDIATELY IN THE LEE OF THE
ALLEGHENIES.
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD GRADUALLY WIND DOWN IN THE MOUNTAINS
DURING THE EVENING, WITH DRY CONDITIONS FOR ALL DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT. LOWS TOMORROW NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 20S
FOR MOST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR SOUTH ON MONDAY,
LEADING TO DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
AREA. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND 40S ACROSS
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH WAA. HIGHS TUESDAY LIKELY NEAR TO
A TICK ABOVE NORMAL. COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA WEDNESDAY, BUT
LIKELY NOT UNTIL LATE KEEPING TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL AGAIN. PRECIP WITH FRONT LIKELY CONFINED TO THE ALLEGHENIES
(CURRENTLY FAVORING RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW). POTENTIAL FOR SOME RAIN
EAST OF MTNS, BUT LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME.
SOME AGREEMENT IN MODELS WRT THURSDAY SYSTEM FEATURING A POSITIVELY
TILTED TROUGH AND NOT FAVORABLE TIMING FOR SYSTEM TO MOVE UP THE
EAST COAST. THIS SET UP FAVORS LIGHT PRECIP ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
ALLEGHENIES. IF PRECIP DOES MAKE IT EAST, LIKELY THERMAL ISSUES
EXIST GIVEN NO TRUE SOURCE OF LOCKED IN COLD AIR. REGARDLESS OF WHAT
HAPPENS WITH THIS SYSTEM, IT IS LIKELY TO BRING COLD AIR BEHIND IT
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN POTENTIALLY SETTING UP THE BETTER
SCENARIO FOR WINTRY WX AREAWIDE OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
FOG HAS FORMED AT MANY OF THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING, AND
WILL LIKELY PERSIST WHERE IT HAS FORMED UNTIL RAIN MOVES IN THIS
MORNING. ONCE THE RAIN MOVES IN, A STEADY SOAKING RAIN IS
EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY, ALONG WITH IFR TO SUB-IFR
CEILINGS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE EAST TO NORTHEAST.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATER THIS EVENING, CAUSING WINDS
TO SHIFT TO OUT OF THE WEST AND CEILINGS TO IMPROVE BACK TO VFR
BY LATER TONIGHT. A SECONDARY, REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS TOMORROW. A SURGE OF
WESTERLY WINDS IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH WINDS GUSTING
TO AROUND 30-35 KNOTS THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS. A BRIEF SNOW SHOWER COULD ACCOMPANY THE FRONT,
BUT NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED WITH AIR TEMPERATURES ABOVE
FREEZING. VFR CONDITIONS AND GRADUALLY DECREASING WINDS ARE
EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
VFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS. GUSTS TO 20 KTS
POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY
SWITCHING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST, WITH LOW PRECIP CHANCES.
MARINE
SUB-SCA LEVEL EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER MOST
OF THE WATERS TODAY. HOWEVER, BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING, WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHERLY AND START TO PICK UP ACROSS
THE WIDER WATERS IN THE VICINITY OF TANGIER SOUND AS LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH. SCAS HAVE BEEN ISSUED DURING THAT TIME
FOR OUR SOUTHERNMOST WATERS. ELSEWHERE, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN LIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE WATERS LATER TONIGHT, CAUSING
WINDS TO TURN TO OUT OF THE WEST. SCA GUSTS MAY BE POSSIBLE IN
WESTERLY FLOW LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. A REINFORCING
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE WATERS DURING THE EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON HOURS TOMORROW. A SURGE OF WESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
BEHIND THAT FRONT TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO TOMORROW NIGHT, WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 35-40 KNOTS POSSIBLE AT TIMES. GALE WATCHES HAVE
BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL WATERS FROM 1 PM SUNDAY THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY.
WINDS SHOULD TAPER OFF THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS TO OUR SOUTH, WITH SUB- SCA WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
EXPECTED BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS SWITCH TO SOUTHERLY TUESDAY GIVEN THE HIGH POSITIONING, WITH
SCAS POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY EVENING. WINDS LIKELY SUB-SCA BEFORE THE
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH WITH A RENEWED SCA SURGE OUT OF THE NW
BEHIND THE FRONT.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...GALE WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
MDZ008.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
ANZ530>543.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST
SUNDAY FOR ANZ534-537-543.
SYNOPSIS...KJP
NEAR TERM...KJP
SHORT TERM...KJP
LONG TERM...CPB
AVIATION...KJP/CPB
MARINE...KJP/CPB
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