929
FXUS61 KLWX 101446
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
946 AM EST SAT JAN 10 2026
SYNOPSIS
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL NEARBY TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS ALONG THE FRONT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS
EVENING, WITH ANOTHER REINFORCING COLD FRONT FOLLOWING TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR SOUTH BY MONDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
FINALLY, A MUCH NEEDED SOAKING RAINFALL ACROSS THE ENTIRETY OF THE
REGION GIVEN THE PROLONGED MODERATE TO SEVERE DROUGHT CONCERNS.
LOOKING AT WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS AROUND A 0.50-0.75" WITH LOCALLY
HEAVIER AMOUNTS UP TO 1"+ ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SHENANDOAH VALLEY,
SOUTHERN MD, AND AREAS EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR.
RAIN CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS MORNING REMAINING
RELATIVELY LIGHT TO MODERATE INTENSITY. TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE
LOW TO MID 40S NEAR THE PA/MD LINE WITH LOW 50S ACROSS CENTRAL VA
AND SOUTHERN MD. IT'S MORE OF A HYBRID CAD WEDGE SETUP WITH A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITTING JUST SOUTH OF REGION. AMPLE
MOISTURE WILL POOL AGAINST THIS FRONT AS IT SURGES NORTH AND EAST
WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET LEADING TO SOME OVERRUNNING FOR A STEADY
SOAKING RAIN AREAWIDE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS. MEANWHILE, TRACKING A PIECE OF POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY
DIVING SOUTH OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE IS QUITE EVIDENT ON SATELLITE
AND WATER VAPOR THIS MORNING AS IT DROPS OUT OF THE MN TOWARD
WI. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE IS A STEADY PLUME OF MOISTURE BEING
DRAWN NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF COAST STATES TOWARD THE MID-
ATLANTIC.THIS STEADY PLUME OF MOISTURE WILL BE FORCED NORTH AND
EAST THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. A REINFORCING
COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW AS A RESULT OF THE INCUMBENT POTENT PIECE
OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING DOWN FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
EXPECT THE STEADY SHIELD OF RAIN TO TAPER TO SHOWERS AT OR SLIGHTLY
AFTER SUNSET EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AS THE FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH.
WINDS WILL TURN TO THE WEST LEADING TO DOWNSLOPING/DRIER CONDITIONS
EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. UPSLOPE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER OVER
THE MOUNTAINS PERHAPS MIXING WITH SOME SNOW LATE AS COLDER AIR
FILTERS IN. MORE SUBSTANTIAL/IMPACTFUL UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS AND
SQUALLS LOOK TO HOLD OFF OVER THE MOUNTAINS UNTIL MID TO LATE
SUNDAY MORNING AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 40S ALONG THE PA/MD
LINE (CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MD AND NORTHERN VA) WITH UPPER 40S
AND MID 50S SOUTH OF I-66/US-50 AS WELL AS ALONG THE WESTERN
FACE OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT, WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING BACK INTO THE 30S
AND LOWER 40S BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
A POTENT UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE OVERHEAD DURING THE DAY
TOMORROW, DRIVING A REINFORCING SECONDARY COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA. HI-RES GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A CONVECTIVE LINE WILL
LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS WILL COME IN THE FORM
OF A BURST OF HEAVY SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS LATE TOMORROW MORNING.
THE LINE WILL SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON,
LIKELY IN THE FORM OF A BRIEF HEAVY RAIN/SNOW/GRAUPEL MIX
(MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW/GRAUPEL). MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE FREEZING TO THE EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS, WITH WET-BULB PROFILES ALSO ABOVE FREEZING TO THE
EAST OF I-81. AS A RESULT, THERE ISN'T MUCH CONCERN FOR SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS TO THE EAST OF I-81, DESPITE THE POTENTIAL FOR A
BRIEF BURST OF HEAVY PRECIP. ALONG AND WEST OF I-81 THIS LINE
COULD PRODUCE A QUICK COATING OF SNOW, POTENTIALLY MAKING
CONDITIONS SLIPPERY IN SPOTS. AT LEAST A FEW INCHES OF SNOW
APPEAR LIKELY IN THE ALLEGHENIES TOMORROW MORNING THROUGH
TOMORROW EVENING, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL INCHES IN
SPOTS. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES MAY POTENTIALLY NEED TO BE
CONSIDERED FOR THE ALLEGHENIES LATER TODAY. MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS
VERY HIGH VALUES OF THE SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER, WITH NOTABLE CAPE
IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER (EVEN TO THE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS). LIFT
ALSO INTERSECTS THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE, SO SLRS COULD
POTENTIALLY BE ON THE HIGHER SIDE WITH ANY SNOW THAT FALLS IN
HEAVIER SQUALLS.
OUTSIDE OF ANY SNOW, IT WILL TURN MUCH WINDIER BEHIND THE
REINFORCING FRONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MOST LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY
EXPERIENCE GUSTS TO AROUND 35-45 MPH, WITH GUSTS TO WIND
ADVISORY LEVELS POSSIBLE IN AND IMMEDIATELY IN THE LEE OF THE
ALLEGHENIES.
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD GRADUALLY WIND DOWN IN THE MOUNTAINS
DURING THE EVENING, WITH DRY CONDITIONS FOR ALL DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT. LOWS TOMORROW NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 20S
FOR MOST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR SOUTH ON MONDAY,
LEADING TO DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
AREA. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND 40S ACROSS
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH WAA. HIGHS TUESDAY LIKELY NEAR TO
A TICK ABOVE NORMAL. COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA WEDNESDAY, BUT
LIKELY NOT UNTIL LATE KEEPING TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL AGAIN. PRECIP WITH FRONT LIKELY CONFINED TO THE ALLEGHENIES
(CURRENTLY FAVORING RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW). POTENTIAL FOR SOME RAIN
EAST OF MTNS, BUT LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME.
SOME AGREEMENT IN MODELS WRT THURSDAY SYSTEM FEATURING A POSITIVELY
TILTED TROUGH AND NOT FAVORABLE TIMING FOR SYSTEM TO MOVE UP THE
EAST COAST. THIS SET UP FAVORS LIGHT PRECIP ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
ALLEGHENIES. IF PRECIP DOES MAKE IT EAST, LIKELY THERMAL ISSUES
EXIST GIVEN NO TRUE SOURCE OF LOCKED IN COLD AIR. REGARDLESS OF WHAT
HAPPENS WITH THIS SYSTEM, IT IS LIKELY TO BRING COLD AIR BEHIND IT
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN POTENTIALLY SETTING UP THE BETTER
SCENARIO FOR WINTRY WX AREAWIDE OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
OVERALL LOOKING AT SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AMONGST THE TERMINALS TODAY
WITH A STEADY SOAKING RAIN OVERSPREADING THE REGION. RAINFALL SO FAR
THIS MORNING, HAS BEEN LIGHT TO MODERATE LEADING TO POCKETS OF IFR
TO MVFR VSBYS AND CIGS ACROSS THE REGION. SOME LIFR CIGS HAVE BEEN
REPORTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY AND FOR TERMINALS
CLOSE TO SOUTHERN MD AND ALONG THE WESTERN SHORE OF THE CHESAPEAKE
BAY. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE AT TIMES AS STEADY RAIN ENGULFS MUCH OF
THE AREA THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST AT LESS THAN 10 KTS.
SOME LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE RIDGES AND AT
TERMINALS SOUTH OF THE DCA GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE STALLED FRONT
NEARBY.
THE STEADY SHIELD OF RAIN WILL TAPER TO SHOWERS THIS EVENING EAST OF
THE MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 23-02Z/6-9PM AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST ALLOWING CEILINGS TO IMPROVE BACK
TOWARD HIGH END MVFR TO VFR OVERNIGHT WITHIN THE CORRIDOR. UPSLOPE
SHOWERS WITH PERHAPS SOME SNOW MIXED IN WILL LINGER WELL WEST OF
MRB/CBE/SHD HEADING INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING LEADING TO POTENTIAL
SUB-VFR REDUCTIONS.
VFR CONDITIONS START EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY MORNING WITH A
MORE POTENT COLD FRONT TO FOLLOW EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
FRONT WILL DRIVE UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS WITH PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS/STREAMERS OR EVEN GRAUPEL
SHOWERS MAKING IT AS FAR EAST AS THE I-81 TERMINALS (MRB, FDK,
HGR, SHD). ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIMITED EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE FREEZING. WIND WILL BE
THE BIGGER STORY WITH THE FRONT WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST GUSTS AT
30-40 KTS THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. STRONGEST WINDS LOOK TO OCCUR BETWEEN 1-8PM AS
THE FRONT SURGES THROUGH. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE SOUTH (VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME).
VFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS. GUSTS TO 20 KTS
POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY
SWITCHING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST, WITH LOW PRECIP CHANCES.
MARINE
SUB-SCA LEVEL EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER MOST
OF THE WATERS TODAY. HOWEVER, BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING, WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHERLY AND START TO PICK UP ACROSS
THE WIDER WATERS IN THE VICINITY OF TANGIER SOUND AS LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH. SCAS HAVE BEEN ISSUED DURING THAT TIME
FOR OUR SOUTHERNMOST WATERS. ELSEWHERE, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN LIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE WATERS LATER TONIGHT, CAUSING
WINDS TO TURN TO OUT OF THE WEST. SCA GUSTS MAY BE POSSIBLE IN
WESTERLY FLOW LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. A REINFORCING
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE WATERS DURING THE EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON HOURS TOMORROW. A SURGE OF WESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
BEHIND THAT FRONT TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO TOMORROW NIGHT, WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 35-40 KNOTS POSSIBLE AT TIMES. GALE WATCHES HAVE
BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL WATERS FROM 1 PM SUNDAY THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY.
WINDS SHOULD TAPER OFF THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS TO OUR SOUTH, WITH SUB- SCA WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
EXPECTED BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS SWITCH TO SOUTHERLY TUESDAY GIVEN THE HIGH POSITIONING, WITH
SCAS POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY EVENING. WINDS LIKELY SUB-SCA BEFORE THE
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH WITH A RENEWED SCA SURGE OUT OF THE NW
BEHIND THE FRONT.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...GALE WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
MDZ008.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
ANZ530>543.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST
SUNDAY FOR ANZ534-537-543.
SYNOPSIS...KJP
NEAR TERM...KJP/EST
SHORT TERM...KJP
LONG TERM...CPB
AVIATION...KJP/CPB/EST
MARINE...KJP/CPB
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